While most of us will be looking for shopping deals on Black Friday, the Oregon State Beavers will be looking to steal a victory on the road on the blue turf against the Playoff-hopeful Boise State Broncos.
Unfortunately for the Beavers, my Oregon State vs. Boise State predictions see Ashton Jeanty running up the stats hoping for a Heisman trophy bid.
Find out more in my free college football picks for November 29 ahead of this Noon ET kickoff at Albertsons Stadium on FOX.
Oregon State vs Boise State prediction and best bet
Who will win Oregon State vs Boise State?
The Boise State Broncos are deserved big favorites, boasting the No. 3 offense in the country in scoring.
The Oregon State Beavers have some issues stopping the run, ranking 102nd in the country in rushing yards allowed. That will be a major issue facing the best running back in the country. There will be little chance of any upset if they can’t neutralize Ashton Jeanty on the ground.
My best bet
Boise State team total Over 38.5 (+105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Boise State Broncos own the fifth-ranked rushing offense thanks to standout running back Ashton Jeanty, and they're set to fest against a poor Oregon State Beavers defense.
This marks the sixth game for Boise State where they face a rushing defense ranked 100th or worse. In the Broncos' previous five games, they scored an average of 43.8 points per game and rushed for 269.0 yards per contest.
The Beavers stop unit has already surrendered 49 points to Oregon, 42 to Nevada, 33 to UNLV, and 41 to Washington State. They also allow their opponents to convert third downs at a rate of 44.0%, which ranks 107th nationally.
When in the red zone, the Broncos have converted 40 of their 52 attempts into touchdowns, entering Week 14 at 10th in scoring percentage on red zone opportunities. Meanwhile, the Beavers have given up 26 touchdowns in 47 opponent red zone opportunities.
Oregon State will likely be able to score on their side of the ball, but that will only help our best bet of Boise State piling up the points.
Oregon State vs Boise State same-game parlay (SGP)
Boise State team total Over 38.5
Ashton Jeanty 200+ rushing yards
Trent Walker 100+ receiving yards
To add to the team total, I am going to take the Heisman hopeful to rush for 200 or more yards. Jeanty has done so in four games this season, and the Beavers have allowed four rushers to run for over 100 yards this season — including two for 150+.
I'm also taking Oregon State wide receiver Trent Walker to eclipse 100+ yards receiving. He had 12 catches last week for 136 yards with Ben Gudbranson under center, and the Broncos hold the 123rd-ranked pass defense and remain susceptible to big plays through the air.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oregon State vs Boise State odds
Oregon State vs Boise State live odds
Oregon State vs Boise State opening odds
- Oregon State vs. Boise State spread: Boise State -18.5
- Oregon State vs. Boise State moneyline: Oregon State +725, Boise State -1,100
- Oregon State vs. Boise State Over/Under: 55.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Oregon State vs Boise State spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread opened at Boise State -18.5 and quickly climbed to -20.5. However, it has fallen back to 18.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
- Oregon State has covered each of the past four matchups dating back to 2010, but they are 3-8 against the spread this season.
- The total opened at 55.5 and climbed to 56.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
- The Over is getting 92% of the money and 67% of tickets as of Wednesday afternoon.
- Covers Consensus has 59% of users backing the Beavers, with 68% taking the Over.
Oregon State vs Boise State betting trend to know
The Broncos have hit the game total Over in nine of their last 13 games. Find more college football betting trends for Oregon State vs Boise State.
Oregon State vs Boise State game info
| Location: | Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID |
| Date: | Friday, 11-29-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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