The marquee matchup of Week 1 in college football is an intriguing one, as No. 13 Oregon will be a slight underdog when it faces off against No. 16 Auburn Saturday night at AT&T Stadium in Dallas. **video
The Ducks, led by star quarterback Justin Herbert, are out to prove that they and the Pac-12 are no joke this year. But Herbert will have to deal with an elite Auburn defensive line full of future NFL talent. Who has the edge? We break down the best ways to wager this top 25 matchup.
OREGON DUCKS AT AUBURN TIGERS (-4, 54.5 @ 888 SPORT)
QUICK HITTER
This game will be 100 percent decided in the trenches. Herbert is the reason (and for good reason) that there is hope that not the Ducks to return to glory, but that the Pac-12 could return to the college football playoff. But you cannot overlook the support he will have, beginning with of course, that all five starting offensive lineman are returning for this season.
But that unit’s task couldn’t be any tougher to start the season. Auburn’s defensive front is going to be something special this season. It may not be as good as Clemson’s was last season, but it won’t be far off. They are led by Derrick Brown, Nick Coe and Marlon Davidson, all of whom are projected to be first-round picks in the upcoming NFL Draft.
These two units may feel each other out like heavyweight fighters in a title bout. And that could result in a low scoring opening frame.
Pick: Under 13.5 First Quarter Total
FIRST HALF BET
Offensive line isn’t the only place where Herbert is going to have help. The Ducks are also bringing back their talented running back duo who totaled for 2,100 total yards, while Penn State grad transfer Juwan Johnson bolsters the receiving corps. The Ducks might be able to take advantage of Tigers aggressive defense with a short passing and screen game.
On the other side of the ball, Auburn has chosen freshman Bo Nix to start the season under center. He will be the first freshman to start at quarterback for the Tigers since 1946. Nix was a highly touted recruit and is the son of former Auburn quarterback Patrick Nix. So, he has been prepping for this moment his whole life. But actually, getting under the bright lights on a big stage against an underrated Ducks defense is something completely different. We like this one to be tight heading into half.
Pick: Oregon +2.5 First Half Spread
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
Herbert came back to Oregon with something to prove. Despite the fact he threw for 3,151 yards with 29 touchdowns compared to just eight interceptions, the Ducks went 9-4 last season after dropping a couple of games they probably shouldn’t have. Herbert would also like to get his completion percentage up this year, and will need to if the Ducks want to win the Pac-12. While we expect Herbert to take another step forward this year, his passing total number is a little too high today. Auburn is an elite defense against the three best defensive teams he faced last year (Cal, Washington and Michigan State), he threw for 225, 202 and 166 yards respectively. Herbert can still have a great game and stay Under this total.
Pick: Justin Herbert Under 245.5 Passing Yards
FULL GAME TOTAL
The most overlooked aspect of this game might be the Ducks defense. Mario Cristobal did a great job this offseason bringing in one of the strongest recruiting classes in the country, highlighted by No. 1 overall recruit Kayvon Thibodeaux. The defensive lineman adds to an already good defensive line that will give a freshman quarterback fits in this game. The Ducks back up that solid front with an athletic secondary that should be able to run with the Tigers receivers. We expect a tightly played game in Dallas tonight.
Pick: Under 54.5
FULL GAME SIDE
Bringing this full circle. If the Ducks offensive line is up to the task and are able to keep Herbert upright for the most part, they aren’t only going to be successful, they’re going to win this game. When things are as close as this between two teams, the difference will always come under center. And honestly, we don’t really know anything about Nix. He could be really good, or he could be really bad. But we know Herbert is good. If you like the Ducks, take ‘em to win. We do.
Pick: Oregon Moneyline (+155)
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