San Diego State vs Hawaii Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Hawaii Won't Be Hamstrung by Sorry San Diego Stoppers

There’s a nightcap game to close out Saturday's Week 7 slate as the San Diego State Aztecs head to the island to face the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. 

Two struggling teams will look to get back on track and it’s still early in conference play, so there’s plenty of room for movement in the Mountain West standings. 

Both defenses have been particularly vulnerable and I believe that creates some value in the college football odds, so I’m targeting one squad’s team total with my best bet for this contest. 

See which team it is in our free college football picks and predictions for San Diego State vs. Hawaii on October 14.

San Diego State vs Hawaii best odds

San Diego State vs Hawaii picks and predictions

Both teams enter this contest well-rested after a bye week. It came at a good time for both squads — SDSU has lost four straight games entering Week 7, while Hawaii was most recently dismantled 44-20 on the road against the UNLV Rebels.

The Aztecs have typically dominated this matchup, winning nine of the last 11 — and 18 of the last 22 — against the Rainbow Warriors. It’s typically been close, however, as all but one of the last five meetings have been decided by seven points or fewer. 

Hawaii made the full transition to the Run and Shoot offense after toying with the idea a season ago. The “Shoot” part of that equation is holding up nicely as Brayden Schager has thrown for 1,661 yards (18th nationally) and 14 touchdowns (11th), although he’s also tossed seven interceptions. The “Run” part has been sorely lacking, as the Rainbow Warriors have mustered an FBS-worst 58.5 rushing yards per game on a measly 2.3 yards per carry.

This makes for an interesting matchup because some of these teams’ weaknesses seemingly cancel each other out. SDSU can’t defend the run whatsoever (132nd in rushing success rate, 128th in EPA per rush) but Hawaii can’t get anything going on the ground (126th in rushing success rate, 125th in EPA per rush). On the other side of the ball, Hawaii’s defense has been underwhelming (111th in EPA per play, 101st in explosiveness) but matched up with an SDSU offense that doesn’t pack much of a punch (84th in EPA per play) and hasn’t generated many big plays (118th in explosiveness). 

I still have a ton of questions about SDSU’s defense this year and I’m not sure DC Kurt Mattix can magically solve all of the issues in one bye week. The Aztecs rank 118th nationally in tackling per PFF, and even that ranking seems too high having watched most of their games from start to finish. They haven’t covered particularly well either, checking in at 96th in coverage grade. 

Hawaii’s passing attack sure is working and it’s a big reason why the Rainbow Warriors rank 18th in explosiveness. Receivers Pofele Ashlock (465 yards, three touchdowns) and Steven McBride (469 yards, six touchdowns) are a dynamite duo and this staff has no qualms about getting them the ball as they rank second nationally in pass rate. It wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if this passing attack led by Ashlock and McBride found a few big plays against this SDSU defense that struggles to either cover or tackle. 

Hawaii has a team total of 23.5 for this matchup and I think that’s too low against a vulnerable SDSU defense checking in at 121st in EPA per play and 127th in success rate. Give me the Rainbow Warriors to score at least 24 points at home after a bye week. 

My best bet: Hawaii Team Total Over 23.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

San Diego State vs Hawaii same-game parlay

Hawaii Team Total Over 23.5

Hawaii +6

+142 at DraftKings

This correlated SGP features Hawaii to go over its team total while also covering the spread. 

It’s hard to trust either team at the moment, so I find the most advisable route to be taking the points with the home team. Hawaii has two wins, with one coming against an FCS school (Albany) while the other was a three-point win over the New Mexico State Aggies in a game in which it was outgained by two full yards per play. 

SDSU, meanwhile, has looked miserable, albeit against a difficult schedule. The four straight losses have come against tough opposition, but the Aztecs didn’t look very impressive in either of their wins — especially in a one-score victory over an FCS school (Idaho State). 

Since that’s the case, I’ll take the points considering four of the last five meetings between these schools have been decided by a touchdown or less. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

San Diego State vs Hawaii spread and Over/Under analysis

The line opened Hawaii +5 but has since moved out a bit, currently sitting between +5.5 and +6 depending on the location. The total has also moved off the opener, rising from 52 at open to 53.5 at current. 

Something will have to give here, as Hawaii is 0-3 at home this year while SDSU is 0-2 on the road. 

Neither team likes to operate with much tempo and both snap the ball fewer than 70 times per game. Hawaii runs 68 plays per game while SDSU runs 64.8. Both squads do have a projected advantage when they have the ball, however, at least according to the numbers. 

For all the grief that SDSU has gotten offensively, it ranks in the Top 50 nationally in success rate (49th) and matches up with a beatable Hawaii defense that has surrendered at least 6.6 yards per play in each of its last three games. This unit was most recently gashed for 307 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns by UNLV. 

Hawaii ranks 109th in EPA per play offensively, which isn’t great, but it is better than their opponent. SDSU checks in at 121st in EPA per play defensively. The Aztecs have allowed over 8 yards per play in two of their last four games and simply haven’t been effective. 

Their best statistical performance since Week 0 is either allowing 322 passing yards to Idaho State or surrendering 34 points on 403 total yards and 6.4 yards per play in a game in which it couldn’t tackle against the Boise State Broncos. 

I lean toward the full-game Over considering the ineptitude shown on defense at times from both sides. 

San Diego State vs Hawaii betting trend to know

Hawaii has scored at least 24 points in four of its last five home games. Find more college football betting trends for San Diego State vs Hawaii.

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