SMU vs Temple Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Mustangs' Menacing Defense Manhandles Owls

Back in the Eric Dickerson era, the Southern Methodist Mustangs "Pony Express" was known for putting up heaping piles of points thanks to the running game. In recent years, it’s been a high-octane passing game that has carried that mantle. 

But this season, the ponies pulling the cart are on the defensive side of the ball. Rhett Lashlee’s squad has put up a dominant front, leading the team to a 4-2 start, which includes going 2-0 in AAC play.

That defense is probably licking its chops to have a go at the Temple Owls this week. While the Owls are 2-5, they come into this one losers of four in a row and frankly look like one of the worst teams in the county.

But is that enough to back SMU as nearly three-touchdown road favorites on Friday night? I'll break down the college football odds and bring you the best bet in my free college football picks and predictions for Southern Methodist vs. Temple.

SMU vs Temple best odds

SMU vs Temple picks and predictions

This is a really strong defensive unit for the Southern Methodist Mustangs. Eight starters returned for 2023, meaning it was the second year of being in Scott Symons’ system. And boy, do the Ponies look comfortable in it.

The Mustangs have held opponents to 16 points or fewer in four of their six games this season. The two times teams went for more were true road games against Big 12 opponents, including holding a terrific Oklahoma offense to a respectable 28 points.

This SMU defense basically does it all. They stop the run. They stop the pass. They pressure the quarterback. SMU ranks 19th in the country in opponent yards per play when facing FBS opponents, 22nd in opponent yards per pass, 31st in opponent yards per pass attempt, and 28th in sack rate.

The Mustangs have been particularly dominant in their first two conference games. They’ve allowed an average of just 310.5 yards and given up a total of 26 points. That does not bode well for Temple.

Things are not going well for the Temple Owls lately. They have lost four consecutive games straight up and against the spread, losing by an average of 25.5 points per game.

Starting quarterback E.J. Warner is still in concussion protocol and is questionable for this matchup. If Warner does play, he needs to improve his accuracy, as he's completing just 56.3% of his passes this season and has thrown five interceptions. 

But the Owls would still want Warner back. Despite rushing for over 100 yards, backup QB Quincy Patterson II went just 12-for-30 for 105 yards in last week’s 45-14 loss to North Texas. 

Whoever it is under center, overall, the numbers are pretty terrible for Temple. The Owls rank 111th in yards per play vs. FBS opponents, 120th in yards per pass, and 117th in yards per rush. Just ugly all around.

This Mustangs defense will have the Owls’ offensive coaches up all night heading into this one. Southern Methodist hasn’t allowed more than 16 points to a team not from the Big 12. I’m betting Temple won’t be the first to surpass that number.

My best bet: Temple team total Under 16.5 (+105 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

SMU vs Temple same-game parlay

Temple Team Total Under 16.5

Jaylan Knighton Over 57.5 Rushing Yards

SMU -4.5 1Q spread

50% boost available

+562 +843 at FanDuel

Our same-game parlay starts off with our best bet, which in this instance is Temple Under its team total of 16.5. And while I expect the SMU defense to be the star of this show, some of the Mustangs' offensive players could be in for a good night as well.

Former Miami running back Jaylan Knighton has been a good fit in the Mustangs’ system, rushing for 358 yards at a clip of 5.8 yards per carry over his first five games with SMU. And as noted, Temple is bad at stopping the run, surrendering more than yards per carry this season. Knighton’s rushing yard prop is set at a modest 57.5. He’s gone Over this number in three of his five games. With this juicy matchup, I like him to make it four of six.

Let’s close this SGP out with a play on the first-quarter spread. SMU has come flying out of the gates in each of its first two AAC games, building 14-0 leads over both Charlotte and ECU in the first quarter. I’m expecting the Mustangs to find the end zone at least once in the first. I can’t say the same for the Owls.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

SMU vs Temple spread and Over/Under analysis

Temple opened this AAC clash as big 18-point underdogs, and not surprisingly, bettors have been fading the Owls, moving the line to an even bigger 20.5 as of Wednesday evening. 

It’s not too surprising considering Temple could once again be without its starting quarterback (even though they just go from bad to worse if he doesn’t play) and recent results. The Owls are just 1-6 ATS this season, and three of their last four losses have come by more than 20 points. SMU has the ability to add to that as well. 

The total hit the board at 57.5 and the Under has been the play early on, driving the number down to 54.5. If this game goes Over, it will be because the Mustangs have done the heavy lifting. While Temple has allowed 41 or more points in four straight games, SMU’s offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders.

The Mustangs rank 74th in yards per play, and the only time they topped 40 points was vs. FCS Prairie View A&M. Can the Ponies run up the score? Sure. But I’m staying away.

SMU vs Temple betting trend to know

SMU has only hit the Game Total Over in four of its last 13 games for -5.9 units. Find more college football betting trends for SMU vs Temple.

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