SMU vs Tulane Odds, Picks, and Predictions: AAC Championship

The SMU Mustangs will look to leave the American Athletic Conference on a high note as they take on the Tulane Green Wave in the AAC Championship Game this afternoon in New Orleans.

The Mustangs will move to the Atlantic Coast Conference next season, making this their last chance for an AAC title. However, the college football odds have stamped SMU as a slight underdog against Tulane, who won the conference title last season before picking up a Cotton Bowl victory.

Tulane has a shot at a second straight New Year’s Six bowl game, but will have to contend with a powerhouse Mustangs offense that has run rampant over the rest of the conference. I’ll take a deeper look at this matchup in my free college football picks for SMU vs. Tulane on December 2.

SMU vs Tulane best odds

SMU vs Tulane picks and predictions

Both Tulane and SMU finished the year with perfect 8-0 records in AAC play. As that suggests, these two schools didn’t play each other in the regular season, making this perhaps the most interesting Group of Five title game on the slate this weekend.

These teams have found success in opposite ways. The Green Wave have been an impressive defensive force, allowing just 18.3 points per game on the season. Even in Tulane’s only loss early this year, they allowed just 37 points to the Mississippi Rebels, the No. 9 team in the country according to the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Opponents have had some success through the air, but Tulane is shutting down the run game, allowing just 2.9 yards per rush this year.

On the other hand, the Mustangs have been an offensive juggernaut. SMU is averaging 472.6 yards and 41.8 points per game, both of which rank inside the Top 10 in the country this year. The Mustangs are finding most of their success through the air, with quarterback Preston Stone throwing for 3,197 yards and 28 touchdowns this season. 

That could be a problem for an otherwise excellent Tulane defense. The Green Wave are merely good against the pass, allowing 6.9 yards per attempt and a 129 passing rating on the year. Opposing schools have clearly seen this pattern, as they are throwing 34.9 times per game against Tulane and completing 66.1% of their passes in the process. 

In other words, the Mustangs are built in exactly the way you’d want to create a team to beat Tulane. SMU has scored at least 31 points in each of their last eight games — all conference wins — and surpassed 40 points in four of those games. The only teams to keep them down this year were the Oklahoma Sooners and the TCU Horned Frogs, and those games also came in September.

Tulane won’t allow SMU to go off like that. They have not allowed a team to score more than 28 points outside of Mississippi, with AAC foes averaging just 19.5 points per game against the Green Wave. Tulane doesn’t play in shootouts, and this won’t turn into one.

But at the same time, SMU presents the biggest challenge for this defense since the Mississippi game. Teams like the Rice Owls and the North Texas Mean Green were able to put up 28 points against the Green Wave, showing that Tulane isn’t necessarily a full dominant force on the defensive side of the ball.

That’s a problem when Tulane has a mediocre offense that is scoring just 27.9 points per game. And SMU is no slouch on defense, holding its own opponents to an average of 17.7 points. 

The Green Wave aren’t prepared to compete with an explosive offense that can punch through their defense, and that’s what SMU presents. I’m taking the Mustangs with the points in a game they might just win outright.

My best bet: SMU +3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

SMU vs Tulane same-game parlay

SMU +3.5

Over 47.5

Jordan Hudson anytime TD

+625 at DraftKings

I’m taking SMU with the points, and it’s easy to build a same-game parlay around the idea that their passing game will be too much for the Green Wave to handle. I think the Mustangs will compete in this game by scoring points, and that means taking the Over on a total set at a modest 47 points. 

If SMU is going to score, that means touchdowns in the passing game. There are a couple good options here, but I’m going with wide receiver Jordan Hudson, who should outclass the Tulane secondary. 

Hudson has only 27 catches on the year — as the Mustangs spread the ball around — but has already scored seven touchdowns and represents a serious deep threat. I’m taking Hudson to score a touchdown to add lots of value to our SGP. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

SMU vs Tulane spread and Over/Under analysis

Tulane opened the game as a 3.5-point favorite. That’s still the consensus spread, with most books offering -110 odds on both sides of the line. However, you can find slightly better -108 odds on Tulane at some sites. 

SMU has been good to backers this year, going 7-5 against the spread. Tulane has come up a little short despite its excellent performance this year, putting up a 5-7 ATS record. 

I’m taking the Mustangs on the spread as my best bet in this game. While both teams play strong defense, Tulane has struggled against the pass — exactly where SMU’s offense has shined all year long. Nobody in the AAC has been able to slow down the Mustangs’ aerial attack, and Tulane doesn’t look like it has the makeup to change that fact. I like SMU and the points.

The total on this game opened at 50.5 points. That number has come down rapidly this week, with the consensus Over/Under sitting at around 47 points. There are books that are sitting at either 46.5 or 47.5 points as well, giving you plenty of options depending on which side you like.

The Mustangs have been dead even against the total this year, with the Over and Under both going 6-6 in their games. However, the Tulane defense has kept scores low all year long, and the Under holds a 10-2 record in Green Wave games.

SMU’s offense has been outright dominant this year in AAC play. Nobody has held them under 31 points in the league, and even if we think Tulane can equal that performance, it’s hard to imagine that the Green Wave won’t at least keep this game close. That suggests a game that should be played in the 50s, if not higher. I’m leaning towards the Over, with that lean getting stronger with every point the total drops.

SMU vs Tulane betting trend to know

SMU is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall. Find more college football betting trends for SMU vs Tulane.

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