All eyes will be on Boone, North Carolina tonight when Appalachian State hosts South Alabama in the lone college game on the board.
With both teams looking to build some momentum, my South Alabama vs. Appalachian State prediction is that both lean on what they are good at which is putting up points.
Find out more in my college football picks for Thursday, September 19.
South Alabama vs App State prediction
My best bet
Over 63.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Appalachian State Mountaineers entered the 2024 season with high hopes. Some thought this might be head coach Shawn Clark’s best team in his tenure there, and it’s evident why — especially on the offensive side of the ball.
Joey Aguilar is a key returner at quarterback after throwing for 3,757 yards and 33 touchdowns a year ago. He has two good running backs (Anderson Castle, Kanye Roberts) around him, and his top four wide receivers all return, so it’s hard not to feel good about the skill positions.
There are still massive question marks on the defensive side of the ball after regressing to 90th in EPA per play and 85th in success rate a year ago. The Mountaineers put on a truly embarrassing defensive display in Week 2 against Clemson, surrendering 66 points and 712 yards on 9.8 yards per play.
The film is every bit as bad as the numbers for that contest, with missed tackles and assignments galore. That may be understandable for some lower-caliber Group of 5 opponents going against a team like Clemson, but not App State. This is a proud program that has been making some uncharacteristic mistakes on defense lately, a sign of regression.
App State ranks 131st in EPA per play and 123rd in success rate. It has failed to stop both the run (127th in EPA per rush) and the pass (119th), getting little push up front (130th in stuff rate) and generating no havoc (130th).
Thursday’s opponent, the South Alabama Jaguars, have a similar profile in that their offense has looked great (14th in EPA per play, 17th in success rate), but their defense has been suspect (95th in EPA per play, 103rd in success rate).
That’s understandable, considering Major Applewhite is an offensive-minded head coach, and his defense returned just three starters from a year ago. The offensive stats have been padded in the non-conference against soft opponents, but App State’s defense qualifies as another beatable unit.
Quarterback Gio Lopez is a dual threat averaging 10.3 yards per attempt while tossing seven touchdowns and no interceptions. He has a bonafide star at wide receiver in Jamaal Pritchett (207 yards, three touchdowns), and after watching App State’s coverage busts against Clemson, it’s hard to see Pritchett & Co. being kept off the scoreboard for long.
South Alabama vs App State same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 63.5
Anderson Castle anytime touchdown
Jamaal Pritchett anytime touchdown
Kaedin Robinson anytime touchdown
App State nearly always has a productive running back emerge as a star in Sun Belt play. It looked like Roberts might be that player heading into the year after rushing for 696 yards and seven touchdowns a year ago as the RB2, but so far, it’s the veteran presence in the room who has earned the staff's trust.
Castle was handed 17 carries against East Carolina a week ago, while Roberts saw just five. The vet is a useful receiver as well (five receptions a week ago), and it’s hard to see him staying out of the end zone if he sees similar volume against a burnable defense that allowed 52 points and 550 yards against North Texas in its most difficult challenge to date.
App State isn’t generating much havoc and ranks 98th in PFF’s coverage grade, and Pritchett is one of the sport’s most explosive playmakers. On the flip side, Kaedin Robinson snared 10 touchdowns a year ago as Aguilar’s favorite target and should be licking his chops against the nation’s 112th-ranked coverage unit.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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South Alabama vs App State odds
South Alabama vs App State live odds
South Alabama vs App State opening odds
- Spread: South Alabama +8 (-110) | App State -8 (-110)
- Moneyline: South Alabama +220 | App State -270
- Over/Under: Over 62.5 (-110) | Under 62.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
South Alabama vs App State spread and Over/Under analysis
- App State has been a wagon at home, winning 10 of its last 11 games at Kidd Brewer Stadium.
- South Alabama has been one of the least profitable teams in the country lately, going just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games.
- South Alabama has cashed the Over in eight of its last 13 games.
South Alabama vs App State betting trend to know
App State is 4-2 O/U in its last six home games against FBS opponents. Find more college football betting trends for South Alabama vs App State.
South Alabama vs App State game info
| Location: | Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, NC |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-19, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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