The Texas Christian Horned Frogs will make their first appearance in a College Football Playoff game as they face off against the undefeated Michigan Wolverines in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve.
Both of these teams score plenty of points, and the bowl game odds indicate that we can expect a shootout on Saturday.
That means plenty of opportunities to cash in on player props, and I have my free college football picks for the Fiesta Bowl below.
Also, check out our full TCU vs. Michigan betting preview.
TCU vs Michigan props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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TCU vs Michigan props
No Corum, no problem
Blake Corum spent most of his junior season with the Wolverines proving that he was the best running back in college football. He may have even been the best player in the country — he certainly made a case for the Heisman Trophy — but saw his season cut short by a torn meniscus.
Yet Michigan continued rolling, even with Corum out for the Big Ten Championship. Donovan Edwards ran for 216 yards against the Ohio State Buckeyes following Corum’s injury, then went for another 185 yards against the Purdue Boilermakers the next week to win the conference title.
TCU has been fine on defense this year, but it isn’t exactly the kind of team that shuts opponents down, either in the air or on the ground. Michigan averages 5.6 yards per carry, fourth-best in the nation, while the Horned Frogs allow opponents to grind out 4.2 yards per attempt, a middling amount that ranks 64th among FBS teams.
Edwards ran for three touchdowns and 401 yards on just 47 carries in the last two games as the main rushing option for Michigan, both against solid defensive units. There’s no reason to think that he won’t keep finding success in the Fiesta Bowl — the only question is just how successful he’ll be, as sportsbooks are expecting him to run wild on Saturday with a rushing yards total as high as 136.5.
So, I'm turning my attention to Edwards touchdown props.
The odds on Edwards to find the endzone once in the Fiesta Bowl aren’t worth gambling on — we're looking in the -850 range for a single score — but banking on Edwards to score multiple touchdowns can bring a real return.
Michigan will be looking to punch the ball right down TCU’s throat and should find success doing so. Without Corum available, Edwards will get all the significant carries in a game of this magnitude — with Edwards on track to have a huge night, I’m willing to get in at a much more attractive number on Edwards to hit the endzone at least twice.
Donovan Edwards prop: To score 2+ touchdowns (-115 at FanDuel)
Duggan lets it fly
Max Duggan has been one of the keys to the Horned Frogs' attack all season long, throwing for 30 touchdowns against just four interceptions and topping 250 passing yards nine times.
It’s the kind of breakout season that will earn Duggan some NFL draft consideration, even if he may have to wait a long time to hear his name called.
Even in his only defeat this season — a 31-28 overtime loss to the Kansas State Wildcats — Duggan threw for 251 yards and a touchdown. It’s likely that Duggan will find himself in a similar situation needing to throw against Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl, where the Wolverines are a solid touchdown favorite.
Of course, just about everyone has had to try to throw against Michigan this year. The Wolverines have spent virtually the entire season in the lead, and nobody has been able to do much about it. Teams are only scoring 13.4 points per game against Michigan, and while they throw the ball a lot, opponents are only putting up 191.8 yards per game through the air. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging an anemic 5.8 yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest mark in the nation.
But slowing down the passing attacks in the Big Ten isn’t exactly the same as stopping Duggan and the Horned Frogs. TCU throws for 273 yards per game and averages an outstanding 8.4 yards per attempt. Duggan and his receiver corps — and he has a lot of weapons to choose from with Quentin Johnston, Taye Barber, Derius Davis, Savion Williams, and even tight end Jared Wiley — won’t be stopped entirely, even by a Wolverines defense that prides itself and giving up very little to opposing offenses.
It will be tough for the Horned Frogs to score a lot of points, but they will have their moments and they will try to throw the ball to do their part in turning this game into a shootout. Duggan will get yardage, even if the Wolverines manage to bend and not break on most drives.
Max Duggan prop: Over 234.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Miller time
The TCU offense is far from one-dimensional. Junior running back Kendre Miller had an exceptional season, rushing for 1,342 yards and 17 touchdowns, and while Miller may not have gotten the attention Corum earned all year at Michigan, his numbers were very comparable, if against slightly weaker competition.
Miller has been the key to a TCU running attack that has put up 200 yards a game this season. The team averages 5.3 yards per carry and Miller has been even better, putting up 6.2 yards per attempt. TCU is committed to playing a balanced offense, running the ball over 48% of the time this year, and it has been successful when it does so.
TCU will have to mix things up if it wants to keep Michigan off balance. I expect the Horned Frogs to continue to feed Miller the ball even if they fall behind, at least as an occasional change of pace.
If the Wolverines can key on the passing game, they’ll probably shut it down. But if TCU can continue utilizing all of its offensive weapons, Michigan will have to settle for slowing everyone down without completely stopping anything.
With Miller likely to get his touches, I expect him to be able to hit the Over on his rushing yardage prop of just 79.5 yards. Miller has gone over this total in nine of his last 11 games, and while Michigan will look to take him out of the offense as much as possible, he’ll be able to surpass that modest number even against a great defense.
Kendre Miller prop: Over 79.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
