TCU vs Texas Tech Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Red Raiders Run Through Horned Frogs

Sometimes it's hard to fathom that the TCU Horned Frogs played for the National Championship just 10 months ago. Obviously, the Horned Frogs experienced a ton of turnover this offseason, but still, I’m not sure many expected a 4-4 start to the season.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are another Big 12 team that hasn’t lived up to preseason expectations, sitting at a disappointing 3-5 heading into Week 10.

Now, these Big 12 rivals are both coming off a bye week and hoping to build some momentum with a much-needed victory. College football odds have the Red Raiders laying three points at home in this Thursday night matchup but is that enough to get behind the Horned Frogs as dogs?

I break down the matchup and bring you the best free college football picks for TCU vs. Texas Tech on November 2.

TCU vs Texas Tech best odds

TCU vs Texas Tech picks and predictions

This season has been a bit of a mess for both teams heading into this Big 12 matchup, highlighted by the fact both TCU and Texas Tech have had to use multiple quarterbacks this season due to injuries. As a result, the Horned Frogs enter this matchup having lost three of their last four games, while the Red Raiders have dropped two in a row.

For TCU, backup Josh Hoover continues to start in place of injured starter Chandler Morris. Hoover has been up-and-down since taking over the quarterbacking duties. The redshirt freshman looked great in his first career start vs. BYU throwing for 439 yards and four touchdowns.

But then the following week, Kansas State bottled him up, holding him to a 53.5 completion percentage and just 187 yards with no scores in what ended up being a humbling 41-3 defeat handed to them by the Wildcats. Luckily for Hoover, Texas Tech’s defense more closely resembles BYU’s than it does K-State. 

Meanwhile, Texas Tech was down to its third-stringer before its bye. But backup Behren Morton is expected to be back under center after sitting out the Week 8 game against BYU with a shoulder sprain. Morton has a talented arm but is inconsistent at times, completing just 57.1% of his passes this season. And while Morton will play, there’s no telling how close to 100% he’ll be.

A game like this with so many quarterback injuries can certainly be tough to handicap. So, let’s look at some other angles here, starting with the defenses. 

The Red Raiders have a slight edge in that category. Texas Tech ranks 49th in opponent yards per play vs. FBS opponents while TCU 62nd. But what makes the home team stand apart here is big-play prevention. The Red Raiders rank 23rd in scrimmage plays allowed of 20+ yards. The Frogs rank 80th. 

TCU also ranks 71st in opponent yards per rush when facing FBS opponents and 88th in rushing plays allowed of 10+ yards. So, containing Red Raiders star running back Tahj Brooks could be a problem. Brooks has rumbled for 891 yards at a clip of 5.5 yards per carry.

Combine that with the fact that if Texas Tech wants to keep its very slim bowl hopes alive, it needs to start with a win at home against TCU on Thursday night. I’m betting the Red Raiders do just that and cover the short chalk in the process.

My best bet: Texas Tech -3 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

TCU vs Texas Tech same-game parlay

Texas Tech -3

Tahj Brooks 2+ TDs

Texas Tech 1Q winner

50% boost available

+765 +1,147 at FanDuel

If the Red Raiders are able to pull this off, then Brooks is going to have a big game. He's found the end zone five times in the last four games, and with TCU’s issues slowing down opposing run games, let’s add him to score multiple times in this one. 

One of TCU’s other issues has been slow starts on the road. The Horned Frogs rank 113th in the country when it comes to first-quarter scoring on the road at just 3.3 points per game. So, let’s take advantage of those slow road starts by closing this SGP out with Texas Tech to win the first quarter.

If all three of these legs hit we walk away with a +765 winner.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

TCU vs Texas Tech spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for this Big 12 battle opened with Texas Tech favored by a field goal, and that’s where the line remains as of Tuesday evening. This line isn’t surprising considering a lot of the baseline stats are similar and both teams have had issues with quarterback injuries. But I believe this line is overrating TCU in this spot and I’m comfortable laying the three points with Texas Tech.

The total hit the board at 59 and has been bet up slightly to 59.5. This number seems pretty spot-on but if I had to lean one way it would be to the Under. That’s due to the fact both teams have had inconsistent quarterback play this season, and as a result could lean on the run game in this matchup, moving that clock more quickly. It doesn’t hurt that the Under is a combined 11-3 in TCU and Texas Tech’s last seven games each. 

TCU vs Texas Tech betting trend to know

TCU has hit the Under in 10 of its last 15 games for +4.50 units. Find more college football betting trends for TCU vs Texas Tech.

TCU vs Texas Tech game info

TCU vs Texas Tech latest injuries

TCU vs Texas Tech weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic