The Utah Utes look to get back to their winning ways when they welcome the TCU Horned Frogs to Rice-Eccles Stadium for the final game of tonight's CFB schedule.
My TCU vs. Utah predictions aren't fully convinced that the (now) Isaac Wilson-led Utes can cover the spread against a TCU team coming off a bye week, but I do love the Over for this Big 12 matchup.
If you like points, read on to see why a total north of 50 in Salt Lake City is among my favorite college football picks!
TCU vs Utah prediction and best bet
My best bet
Over 49.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Jake Hoover has been the bright spot for the TCU Horned Frogs offense, already passing for more than 2,000 yards and 16 touchdowns against just six interceptions. Granted, he’s thrown two picks in each of TCU’s last three games, but he’s also logged 985 yards and eight touchdowns in that span.
His strength has been throwing the intermediate ball; he has a PFF grade of 90.2 on throws between 10-19 yards, completing 40 of 61 passes for 833 yards and eight touchdowns.
As strong as the Utah Utes' pass defense has been, big plays have been available for opponents. The Utes have already coughed up 25 pass plays of 10+ yards to conference foes, and 15 plays of 20+ yards.
That last one is important, as only Kansas State has allowed more 20+ yard pass plays in Big 12 action.
Part of Utah's struggles to contain big play is that its pass rush has managed only five sacks through four conference games. Hoover has a passer rating of 109.6 when operating from a clean pocket, and giving him time to operate should lead to plenty of chunk plays. TCU ranks 33rd nationally in points per play and 17th in red zone scoring rate, and the Horned Frogs have scored at least 34 points in five of six games.
With Cam Rising done for the year, and freshman Isaac Wilson now under center, Utah will run the ball often against a TCU defense that ranks 89th in EPA/rush and allows 4.8 yards per carry — especially since the Utes rank dead last in the Big 12 in passer rating since conference play began, and 118th nationally.
Utah is 0-2 this season when it fails to run the ball at least 37 times and TCU’s opponents are averaging 42.2 carries per game. That'll take the pressure off of Wilson and help the Utes cash in once they reach the red zone, especially against a TCU team that is among the worst red zone defenses in the nation.
TCU has had two weeks to rebound from its 30-19 loss to Houston, and I expect we’ll see an offense ready to put up points. Utah will find plenty of success with its rushing game. Big plays will lead to big points and an Over cash for us.
TCU vs Utah same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 49.5 points
TCU +3.5
Jack Bech anytime touchdown
Jack Bech has been targeted at least nine times in every game against FBS opponents, with an average depth of target of 14 yards, and has 37 catches for 688 yards in those five games. He’s a big-play receiver who has caught at least one touchdown pass in each of those five contests and should be able to produce a long touchdown against a Utah defense giving up too many explosive plays.
TCU can’t run the ball well, and it can’t stop the run well, but with Hoover slinging it around against a defense that doesn’t rush the passer well, I expect the Horned Frogs will stay in this game until the end. Having two weeks to prepare also helps, so take TCU to stay within a field goal — and/or possibly pull off the upset.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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TCU vs Utah odds
TCU vs Utah live odds
TCU vs Utah opening odds
- TCU vs. Utah spread: Utah -6.5
- TCU vs. Utah moneyline: TCU +210, Utah -250
- TCU vs. Utah Over/Under: 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
TCU vs Utah spread and Over/Under analysis
- Utah is currently laying 3.5 points, a far cry from the 6.5 on the board when lines opened on Sunday. The news of Rising being shut down was responsible for the sudden shift, but the Utes remain favorites as they have in every game this season.
- That may not be a good thing, given Utah is 1-4 ATS vs. FBS opponents. Then again, TCU is also just 1-4 ATS vs. FBS teams — but the one win came via an outright win over Kansas as a one-point dog.
- I think being an underdog takes off some of the pressure for TCU here, and it easily has the better quarterback. Utah’s strength is its defense, but the struggles to contain explosive plays means the Horned Frogs are only one or two plays away from finding the endzone.
- The total of 49.5 points is down from the opening number of 51.5. The sudden shift also corresponded with the news that Rising was shut down for the year. The Over is 4-1 in TCU’s games against FBS teams, while Utah has seen the Under go 3-1-1 and this is its fourth total of less than 50 points.
TCU vs Utah betting trend to know
TCU has hit the Over in five of its last six away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for TCU vs Utah.
TCU vs Utah game info
| Location: | Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-19-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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