It's quite the occasion for the Oklahoma Sooners as they make their SEC Conference debut on national television against Tennessee.
If you polled most college football fans before the season, most would have expected the Vols to drop a game in this spot. But now? The roles feel reversed. Tennessee has looked like legitimate National Championship contenders through a few games, and Oklahoma hasn't looked worthy of its preseason rankings.
My early Tennessee vs. Oklahoma predictions favor the visitors. Read why in the early college football picks for Saturday, September 21
Tennessee vs Oklahoma predictions
Early spread lean
Tennessee -7 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
One of my fundamental opinions about this game is that one team does something exceptional, while I'm not sure the other team has done much beyond average.
The Tennessee offense has looked incredible so far this season. Nico Iamaleava had the highest expectations coming into the season, and so far, he's delivered. The second-year man has Vols fans dreaming of the potential for a quarterback who could be the best in the Josh Heupel era.
He'll enter this game with 698 yards passing on six touchdowns and a QBR of 80.7. That QBR is right inside the Top 20 nationally. The major caveat is that most of those players haven't played a Top 25 team this season — Lamaleava has. Despite two interceptions, he also looked the part in that one against NC State. And that's where the discussion of this matchup starts: For the moment, it's safe to say that the Vols have the better passer on the field.
The numbers tell you enough. Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold has come close to meeting the preseason expectations that one has played quarterback for OU, but still, parts of his game lead you to want more. He's been inaccurate, completing just 59% of his passes. He also lacked explosiveness with a negative EPA rating on the season—that's a significant edge for Lamaleava, who has had no such issues this season.
Oklahoma will enter this game with some mixed performances. The Sooners drummed one of the worst teams in FCS to open the year in Temple but failed to cover against Houston as 27.5-point favorites and then bounced back in a good win against Tulane last week. Even in that win, the Sooner issues (with limited data points) showed themselves again: Lack of efficiency in the offense. Its success rate is just 88th in the country, which is about average. That's a glaring problem when facing the Vols because you'll need to score. Sometimes, it's as simple as thinking one team can't score enough to keep up, and I don't believe Oklahoma can.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see this one creep over a touchdown. It's a big ask to come into Oklahoma Memorial Stadium and cover a touchdown spread. Still, I don't think you'd rather have any other offense in America attempting to accomplish that feat. It's worth mentioning that this is the first time Oklahoma will be a home underdog in the Brent Venables era. The last time Oklahoma was ever a home dog was in 2016 when it closed as two-point dogs to Ohio State. The Buckeyes would go on to win by 21.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 58.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Before we mention the actual game circumstances, it's worth considering the placement of this number and how it's in such a precarious zone.
58, as it typically is, has been a critical number for totals in college football this season. 48% of the totals this season at 58.5 have gone Over, but when you alter that number by just a single point, the number jumps almost by a full five percent to the Over. It's why I'll be watching this total closely this weekend, but it's a non-play at this number. If forced to choose, I'm going with the Under, which goes back to what we've mentioned above.
The Oklahoma offense needs to be more efficient to trust to do its part to surpass a total this high. It's part of the reason two of its three games this season have gone over, and if not for a late second-half surge by Tulane, it would have been all three. Some factors based on the game state also contribute to a lower-scoring affair, at least slightly.
I expect Tennessee to be in control of this matchup throughout. And on the road, with a lead, the tendency has been to protect it for Tennessee. See early on this season when the Vols got up big against NC State and ran the ball 66% of the time. Yes, that game ended up going over the total, but that was more of a function of multiple turnovers by the Wolfpack that set up Tennessee with short fields. I'm not expecting a similar scenario here.
The last aspect is the tempo of the two teams. Tennessee has been about the same as last year, but Oklahoma's plays per game have dropped by seven full plays. Now, Tennessee will have the added incentive to slow this game down more and keep the ball out of the hands of a dangerous Vols offense. It's certainly not a strong lean, but based on the inefficiency of the Oklahoma offense and the suspected game plan for the moment, I'm inclined to lean toward the Under.
Tennessee vs Oklahoma live odds
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