Texans vs Jets TNF Prop Bets: Run Heavy Approach From Houston

On a short week, and riddled with injuries on offense, the Houston Texans would do well to run the ball early and often vs. the Jets. Rohit Ponnaiya believes that'll be the key to their success and as such is fading Stroud and backing Mixon for a big game.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Oct 29, 2024 • 19:13 ET • 4 min read
Joe Mixon Houston Texans NFL
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The New York Jets look to snap a five game losing streak as they host the Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football.

Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud is one of the top young quarterbacks around but I'm fading him as part of my Texans vs. Jets player props for Week 9.  

See why I'm also backing Texans running back Joe Mixon and Jets wideout Garrett Wilson with my best NFL picks for Thursday, October 31.

Texans vs Jets TNF props

Read full analysis of each pick.

Texans vs Jets TNF props

Prop bet #1: C.J. Stroud Under 223.5 passing yards

-114 at FanDuel

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is coming off a game where he threw for 285 yards but that came against the Colts leaky secondary at home. He also got 81 receiving yards from Stefon Diggs who tore his ACL late in the third quarter. 

That injury to Diggs means that the Texans are down their two best receivers since Nico Collins is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Their No. 3 wideout Tank Dell will have to step into the No. 1 role but he'll be shadowed by lockdown corner Sauce Gardner which could severely impact Stroud's ability to find open receivers.

Stroud also has a history of seeing his passing numbers decline when playing outdoors. While he has completed 66.7% of his passes for 291.8 passing yards per game in domes or retractable roof stadiums, those numbers have dropped to 59.9% and 198.1 ypg in seven games outdoors. 

With the New York Jets second in the league in defensive dropback success rate and holding foes to just 161.1 passing yards per game, fade Stroud on his passing yards total.

Prop bet #2: Joe Mixon Over 82.5 rushing yards

-114 at FanDuel

Although the Texans might struggle to throw the ball downfield, they should have more success pounding the rock with Joe Mixon. Houston has already been leaning on their ground game when Mixon suits up and they'll be even more inclined to do that due to their injuries at receiver.

In the three games where Mixon was sidelined by an ankle injury, Houston's rushing play percentage was just 35.8%.In the five games where Mixon has played that number has surged to 49.1% which would be the seventh-highest number in the league. Mixon has rushed for more than 100 yards in four of those five contests and he's averaging 4.9 yards per pop.

The Jets are 24th in the league in defensive rush success rate and are giving up 125.8 rushing yards per game. They could also be without Pro Bowl linebacker C.J. Mosley once again after he underwent an MRI for a neck injury on Sunday.

Prop bet #3: Garrett Wilson Longest Reception Over 21.5 yards

-114 at FanDuel

Davante Adams was expected to bring out the best in Aaron Rodgers but has been a disappointment since being acquired before Week 7. That said, he has been the focus of opposing defenses which has allowed Garret Wilson to thrive even with a slightly lower target share. 

Although Wilson had a modest 61 receiving yards in Week 7 with Adams in the lineup, he still tied for the team lead with nine targets. He had eight targets last week and hauled in five of them for 113 yards against the Patriots. He was a big-play machine all day, bringing in receptions of 27, 26, and 35 yards.

Wilson has now posted a reception of 23+ yards in five of his last seven games. It's now or never for this Jets offense which should lead to plenty of downfield aggression from Rodgers. With both Houston safeties Calen Bullock and Jimmie Ward banged up, back Wilson to go Over his longest reception prop.

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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