Texans vs Jets TNF Prop Bets: Run Heavy Approach From Houston

Prop bet #1: C.J. Stroud Under 223.5 passing yards

-114 at FanDuel

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is coming off a game where he threw for 285 yards but that came against the Colts leaky secondary at home. He also got 81 receiving yards from Stefon Diggs who tore his ACL late in the third quarter. 

That injury to Diggs means that the Texans are down their two best receivers since Nico Collins is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Their No. 3 wideout Tank Dell will have to step into the No. 1 role but he'll be shadowed by lockdown corner Sauce Gardner which could severely impact Stroud's ability to find open receivers.

Stroud also has a history of seeing his passing numbers decline when playing outdoors. While he has completed 66.7% of his passes for 291.8 passing yards per game in domes or retractable roof stadiums, those numbers have dropped to 59.9% and 198.1 ypg in seven games outdoors. 

With the New York Jets second in the league in defensive dropback success rate and holding foes to just 161.1 passing yards per game, fade Stroud on his passing yards total.

Prop bet #2: Joe Mixon Over 82.5 rushing yards

-114 at FanDuel

Although the Texans might struggle to throw the ball downfield, they should have more success pounding the rock with Joe Mixon. Houston has already been leaning on their ground game when Mixon suits up and they'll be even more inclined to do that due to their injuries at receiver.

In the three games where Mixon was sidelined by an ankle injury, Houston's rushing play percentage was just 35.8%.In the five games where Mixon has played that number has surged to 49.1% which would be the seventh-highest number in the league. Mixon has rushed for more than 100 yards in four of those five contests and he's averaging 4.9 yards per pop.

The Jets are 24th in the league in defensive rush success rate and are giving up 125.8 rushing yards per game. They could also be without Pro Bowl linebacker C.J. Mosley once again after he underwent an MRI for a neck injury on Sunday.

Prop bet #3: Garrett Wilson Longest Reception Over 21.5 yards

-114 at FanDuel

Davante Adams was expected to bring out the best in Aaron Rodgers but has been a disappointment since being acquired before Week 7. That said, he has been the focus of opposing defenses which has allowed Garret Wilson to thrive even with a slightly lower target share. 

Although Wilson had a modest 61 receiving yards in Week 7 with Adams in the lineup, he still tied for the team lead with nine targets. He had eight targets last week and hauled in five of them for 113 yards against the Patriots. He was a big-play machine all day, bringing in receptions of 27, 26, and 35 yards.

Wilson has now posted a reception of 23+ yards in five of his last seven games. It's now or never for this Jets offense which should lead to plenty of downfield aggression from Rodgers. With both Houston safeties Calen Bullock and Jimmie Ward banged up, back Wilson to go Over his longest reception prop.