Week 3 could bring us a final fork in the road for the Billy Napier era as the Florida Head Coach welcomes Texas A&M to town.
After a rough two years and an opening week loss to Miami (FL), there is a strong belief Napier could be coaching for his job against the Aggies.
My early Texas A&M predictions believe that'll be in the Gators' favor. Read why in the college football picks ahead.
Texas A&M vs Florida predictions
Early spread lean
Florida +4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Five-star freshman quarterback DJ Lagway started last week in the Florida Gators' win over Samford instead of Graham Mertz, who failed to clear concussion protocol in time.
He was impressive, making Florida much more vertical with his big arm en route to breaking the freshman QB passing record for the Gators with 456 yards through the game. Lagway gives them hope to stay in this game if Napier pulls the trigger and starts him like I imagine he will.
Texas A&M's defense has been okay to start the season, but it still looks vulnerable when you pull up the film. How you view the Aggies' D depends on what you think of Notre Dame, which scored just 14 points against Northern Illinois this weekend.
I don't think much of ND, especially when you consider back-to-back games from Riley Leonard where he hasn't even been close to cracking 200 passing yards and just threw two interceptions to the MAC team.
Despite his mediocre play, he was still able to post a 43% success rate against A&M on the road. Could a true freshman making his second career start at home be better? I believe so.
The value here is in the unknown. We don't know who will start at QB this weekend for Florida, but there's an opportunity there. You can make the case Lagway could be better than A&M's starting QB, Conner Weigman, who has completed a pass of over 40 yards through multiple offensive coordinators just once.
Legway completed that feat four times on Saturday, including an 80-yard bomb. I believe he can challenge the A&M defense vertically — as it's yet to be this season. With no decision made yet for a starting QB, I'll be waiting until that's known so I can place a bet.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 47 (-112 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I've talked a lot about the Florida offense, so let's mention Texas A&M. The offensive DNA through two weeks of the season has been one of short, intermediate passing and most inefficiencies.
A&M ran 80 plays against Notre Dame and scored 13 points, then followed it up with a blowout win against lowly McNeese State. Even then it couldn't generate many explosive plays (just three).
That feels problematic, particularly when you'd like the natural inclination to want to bring some feel-good to your team after such a lousy performance the week prior. To me, so much of this comes back to Weigman not showing the ability to have much of a vertical passing threat.
The Florida defense could have been better in Week 1 against Miami (FL). Cam Ward looked to be moving slowly as he launched his Heisman Campaign, but there's a caveat.
Nearly all of the Canes' success came through the air. Four of the five explosive plays generated by Miami were passing plays, and it posted 0.34 EPA per dropback, which ranked it in the 80th percentile nationally.
Florida was fine on the ground, holding former Oregon State tailback star Damien Martinez to 65 yards (much of which came after the game was out of hand) and holding Miami overall to negative EPA per rush throughout the game.
Weigman will have opportunities, but I'm not sold on whether he can take advantage of them. As for the other side of things, it's more hazy given the QB situation, but if Florida goes with Mertz, you'll see more of what you saw against Miami: a ball-control offense that bleeds the clock and gives you a heavy dosage of rushing plays.
If it's Lagway, the Florida offense will be more dynamic, but it leaves the door open to two things: freshman mistakes that take points off the board and the Gators being more conservative with their playcalling if they lead late. Either starter makes me like the Under.
Texas A&M vs Florida live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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