Texas A&M vs Arkansas Picks and Predictions: Razorbacks Can't Outrun Aggies D

The Razorbacks are off to a torrid start, but they're running into an Aggies squad that can beat them at their own game. Check out our Texas A&M vs Arkansas picks to find out why we're tabbing the Hogs for their first ATS loss this season.

Andrew Caley - Senior Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Andrew Caley • Senior Betting Analyst
Sep 24, 2021 • 15:03 ET • 4 min read
Isaiah Spiller Texas A&M Aggies college football
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It seems appropriate that one of the biggest games in college football this week takes place at Jerry World. Yes, the No. 5-ranked Texas A&M Aggies take on the No. 18-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Both teams enter this game with perfect 3-0 records and want to stake their claim as the second-best team in the SEC West. The Aggies are 5.5-point favorites but the Hogs are perfect against the spread this season.

Check out our free college football betting picks and predictions for Texas A&M vs. Arkansas on Saturday, September 25.

Texas A&M vs Arkansas odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

This line has seen some crazy movement. It opened at Texas A&M -5.5 and was quickly bet up to -6. Then Razorback money moved the number all the way down to -4.5. But since then, the Aggies bounced back to -5.5. The total has been more subdued, coming down just a half-point from the opening 47.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Texas A&M vs Arkansas picks

Picks made on 9/24/2021 at 2:40 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Texas A&M vs Arkansas game info

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Date: Saturday, September 25, 2021
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS

Texas A&M vs Arkansas betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Texas A&M: Caleb Chapman WR (Out), Layden Robinson OL (Questionable), Luke Matthews OL (Questionable), Ainias Smith (Questionable).
Arkansas: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Texas A&M is 5-1 ATS in its last six games dating back to last season. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas A&M vs. Arkansas.

Texas A&M vs Arkansas predictions

Arkansas has been one of the early surprises so far during this young college football season. The Razorbacks have impressed on their way to a 3-0 SU and ATS record with the highlight coming in their 40-21 destruction of Texas as 5.5-point underdogs.

The Hogs have gotten off to a good start for a few reasons. One: They are trampling all over opponents in the run game. They rank eighth in the country in rushing yards per game and have seven players with over 100 rushing yards each, and all averaging over five yards per carry.

Second: The defense has been outstanding. The Hogs rank ninth in the country in yards allowed per game and 12th in passing yards allowed per game. 

Meanwhile, even though Texas A&M is 3-0, some are questioning just how good they are after their near-flop against Colorado, but I think that just provides us some value because, as good as the Razorbacks’ defense is, the Aggies' is even better.

This is an elite unit, particularly the front seven. As a result, the Aggies rank fifth in opponent yards per play and 11th in sack percentage. 

Texas A&M has struggled a bit against the run, but you know they are going to sell out to stop it in this game and force Arkansas’ QB, KJ Jefferson, to beat them with his arm — something he hasn’t needed to do this season. It doesn’t help that two of Jefferson’s starting offensive linemen are questionable for this game.

While Jimbo Fisher’s offense has been inconsistent so far this season, they have balance and the defense is good enough to get them the win and the cover in this game.

It may take a little while for this game to get going. This is a matchup of not only two of the best defenses in the SEC, but the whole country as well. On top of that, this is a rivalry game with a lot on the line. That leads me to believe the first half will be low-scoring.

These are two of the stingiest teams in the country when it comes to allowing first-half points. Arkansas ranks 19th in that category while Texas A&M ranks fifth, and they combine to allow a total of just 10 first-half points per game.

On offense, the Aggies have struggled in the red zone, ranking 98th in red zone scoring percentage. While the Razorbacks haven’t been tested by a strong defense at this point, and so far have been one-dimensional. Bet on the defenses to set the tone early.

NCAA parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our Texas A&M vs. Arkansas picks, you could win $25.69 on a $10 bet?

Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where can I bet on college football odds?

You can bet on college football odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NCAA moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of college football prop odds. Head over to our best football betting sites for the top spots to bet on college football odds in your area.

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Senior Betting Analyst

When his dreams of becoming the next Steve Nash died, all Andrew “Taco” Caley wanted to do was write about sports, something he’s been doing at Covers for more than a decade. A Journalism School grad from Holland College in Charlottetown, PEI, Andrew previously worked at The Chronicle Herald and Star Metro, but knew in his heart that his future lay in sports. He began at Covers as a news editor and has now done everything under the sun when it comes to content. His work has been seen on TSN, Sportsnet, VSiN, and CBS.

These days Andrew’s betting expertise is focused on his favorite teams – the Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He’s also an avid college football fan and bettor. He can’t be friends with you if you don’t appreciate a Service Academy Under. You can also call him Covers’ Sixth Man, as he regularly steps up to guest host Before You Bet and our MLB and NCAAF release shows.

The sportsbook where he does the bulk of his betting is bet365 thanks to its numerous prop betting options and competitive odds. His best advice? Find the balance between the numbers and what you see on the playing field. Then find the best price using multiple books. And don’t ask him where the nickname Taco comes from. It’s not an interesting story. Seriously.

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