It takes a lot of guts to choose Iowa State over Alabama, but if you’re into college football betting, you know that’s exactly what Cyclones quarterback Brock Purdy did when he committed to play in Ames.
“Listen, Coach Saban, the chance to compete for a national title each and every season sounds nice, but I’d rather stare across a barren prairie and then risk my life by taking punishing, body-altering hits every Saturday instead.”
Our free college football picks are much more accurate than that unlikely exchange, and Purdy’s decision has worked out just fine: The senior signal-caller and his Cyclones are undefeated in Big 12 play with another conference battle this weekend.
Let’s check out our best picks and predictions for Texas Tech at No. 24 Iowa State at Jack Trice Stadium, scheduled for a 3:30 ET kickoff on Saturday, October 10.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Iowa State Cyclones betting preview
Weather
It’s going to be hot and humid in Ames this weekend, with an unseasonably-warm high of 87 degrees and winds out of the south-southwest at 14 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Texas Tech: Donovan Smith QB (Questionable), Zach Adams OL (Questionable), Dalton Rigdon WR (Questionable), Kesean Carter WR (Questionable), Alan Bowman QB (Questionable), McLane Mannix WR (Questionable).
Iowa State: Tarique Milton WR (Questionable), Trevor Downing OL (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Red Raiders are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Find more NCAA football betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Iowa State.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Cyclones got one of the biggest wins in program history when they upset Oklahoma 37-30 last Saturday, and while Purdy did his part, it was Iowa State’s balanced attack that caused the Sooners the most problems. Purdy threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns, while RB Breece Hall averaged a cool five yards per carry in chewing up 139 yards on the ground.
It’s been business as usual for Texas Tech, which still loves throwing the ball and scoring points. However, the Red Raiders were hampered in last week’s 31-21 loss to Kansas State when quarterback Alan Bowman left early in the game with an ankle injury. Tech Head Coach Matt Wells has been optimistic about Bowman’s return, and he should be back in the lineup on Saturday to lead a squad that averages 37.3 points per game.
This matchup is going to come down to defense, or more precisely, which one can make a stop or two. Texas Tech has allowed 1,040 yards in the last three games, while Iowa State is allowing more than 31 points per contest. The difference is that the Cyclones can get to the quarterback — they lead the conference in sacks — and that spells trouble for a hobbled Bowman.
PREDICTION: Iowa State -12.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Texas Tech defense allows 42.3 points per game, which ranks fifth-worst in the country. That means Bowman will get plenty of chances to keep pace with the Cyclones, and he’s got a legitimate NFL talent at receiver in T.J. Vasher.
The Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings between these teams, and it’s hard to expect anything less than a high-scoring affair.
PREDICTION: Over 64.5 (-110)
First half pick
This could easily be a letdown spot for Iowa State, but Matt Campbell is one of the best coaches in the country, and it’s not like the Cyclones are accustomed to being in this position.
Purdy was a preseason Heisman candidate for a reason, and he’ll have a chance to show what he can do against a Tech defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone. Turns out the view from Ames isn’t so bad after all.
PREDICTION: Iowa State first half -6.5 (-120)
Texas Tech vs Iowa State betting card
- Iowa State -12.5 (-110)
- Over 64.5 (-110)
- Iowa State first half -6.5 (-120)
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