The Top 5 NCAAF Win Total Bets for 2024: Sanders' Buffaloes Struggle

There are 134 FBS teams in college football this season, and that means 134 regular season win totals to sort through. Even for the most avid college football fan, that’s a lot.

Luckily, you won’t have to do that. I’ve spent the summer combing through the college football odds to bring you my favorite plays for the 2024 season. How will Texas fare in its first SEC season, and is there any stopping the Colorado hype?

Check out my college football picks below.

Best NCAAF win total bets for 2024

Colorado Under 5.5 wins (+110)

The hype train around Coach Prime’s Colorado Buffaloes can’t be slowed down, but don’t we remember what happened last year? Colorado began the year 3-0 before taking an absolute nosedive and going 1-8 the rest of the way. 

So, why is the hype train steaming along, with the Buffs’ win total sitting at 5.5 and the juice on the Over? Let’s call it the "College Football 25 effect." Yes, I am referencing a video game in my betting preview. When the game released its team ratings back in July, the Buffs were ranked as the 16th-best team in the country.

While Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter are both great, they won’t have much time to play catch. Even with the offseason additions, the offensive line is arguably the worst in the conference and maybe one of the worst in the entire Power Four.

Coach Sanders attempted transfer-portal fixes to improve a stop unit that had the seventh-worst defensive success rate in the country and allowed 34.8 ppg, but I’m not sure the talent brought in will offer much hope. 

Then take a look at the Buffs’ schedule. Please, I am begging you to point out six wins to me. I have Colorado as a definite underdog in seven of their eight Big 12 matchups. Plus, there’s a non-con trip to Lincoln, where Nebraska will have revenge in mind.

Hell, even their non-conference opener isn’t a gimme, as FBS powerhouse North Dakota State comes to town as 10-point underdogs. There’s no denying Prime Time can create hype, but I can’t help but see the value in Under 5.5 wins, particularly at plus money.

Pick: Colorado Under 5.5 wins (+110 at BetMGM)

Texas Under 10.5 wins (-178)

Let’s get this out of the way. The Texas Longhorns are a really good football team and if there's a program that's capable of handling the transition to the SEC, it’s them. Heck, they went into Tuscaloosa last season and handed Alabama an L.

They have arguably the best quarterback room in the country, with Quinn Ewers returning and Arch Manning backing him up. The offensive line is elite, and they are the only playoff team from a year ago who has their head coach coming back.

But the thing is, there are a lot of really good SEC teams this season, and the handful of escapes Texas pulled off last season will be much tougher in 2025. Plus, the schedule makers didn’t go easy on the Longhorns in their inaugural SEC campaign. 

The Longhorns open conference play at Mississippi State, a winnable game, but then it’s the Red River Showdown with Oklahoma (who seems to be getting overlooked this season) and then a date with No. 1-ranked Georgia, while matchups with Florida and Kentucky won’t be cakewalks.

Then it’s a big one as Texas renews its rivalry with Texas A&M at the hostile Kyle Field to close out the regular season. To say the Aggies will be up for that one is an understatement. Oh, and did I mention the non-conference matchup against Michigan, at the Big House?

Ewers will be down some playmakers this season as well. Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, and Ja’Tavion Sanders are all in the NFL. But the biggest hole to fill for me is on the defensive line.

I think people are underrating the losses of Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat. The Longhorns’ ability to rush the passer and collapse the pocket was second to none last season and was a huge reason for their success. Those two were game-breakers, and not having them in a more talented SEC will hurt.

For me, 10.5 is a big number, and a 10-2 season probably still gets Texas in the College Football Playoff, and 10-2 or even 9-3 looks more likely than 11-1 for the Longhorns.

Pick: Texas Under 10.5 wins (-178 at FanDuel)

Vanderbilt Over 2.5 wins (-200)

We go from one end of the SEC spectrum to the other as we look at the Vanderbilt Commodores. Let’s go, Vandy!

The Commodores enter 2024 with one of the lowest win totals in the country, sitting at just 2.5, and I love the Over. Yes, the Over is juiced to -200, but the juice is worth the squeeze.

Let’s start with stability. This is now Clark Lea’s fourth year with the program, and he's proven that he can get the most out of his players, which includes 15 returning starters.

One new player is quarterback Diego Pavia. The senior is a transfer from New Mexico State and immediately makes Vandy a better football team, with a 5-foot-9 dual-threat tank of a QB.

Pavia threw for 2,973 yards with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions, while adding another 923 yards and seven scores on the ground with the Aggies last season. He was a big reason why New Mexico State was a blistering 11-2 ATS and made the C-USA title game last season.

Pavia’s offensive coordinator, Tim Beck, also followed him to Nashville, so you can expect a similar offense at Vandy.

Then there is the non-conference schedule. Matchups with Alcorn State, Georgia State, and Ball State have me feeling this number should be at 3.5. In fact, some even 3s are starting to pop up.

While the SEC schedule is as tough as they come, and while Vanderbilt went 0-8 in conference play last season, that won’t bother Pavia, who went into Auburn last season and beat the Tigers as 25-point road underdogs. And guess who is on the Commodores' schedule this season?

Plus, I like Vandy to be at least competitive in matchups against Kentucky and South Carolina this season, meaning I’m more than willing to pay the price on the Over 2.5 with Vandy.

Pick: Vanderbilt Over 2.5 wins (-200 at FanDuel)

Indiana Over 5.5 wins (-155)

A new era of Indiana Hoosiers football begins this season as Curt Cignetti takes over the program, and his impact is being immediately felt.

Cignetti is coming off an impressive tenure at James Madison, where he led the Dukes to a 19-5 record during its first two FBS seasons, including going 11-2 last season, where the lone regular-season loss came by three points in overtime to Appalachian State.

Now, he takes over an Indiana team that returns a whopping 21 starters while bringing along some of his best players from JMU as well. He looked elsewhere for his quarterback, but he found a great one in All-MAC signal caller Kurtis Rourke.

The former Ohio QB threw for nearly 7,600 yards and 50 touchdowns during his Bobcats career. We just saw what Cignetti did with Jordan McCloud last season, and for my money, Rourke is a better passer. 

Rourke will also be throwing to a sneaky-good wide receiver group, which includes Donaven McCulley and JMU transfer Elijah Sarratt, who totaled nearly 1,200 receiving yards last season. 

Then there's the Hoosier schedule. The non-conference lines up pretty well, and with a matchup against UCLA mixed in, Indiana could start the season 3-1 or even 4-0. I also have them favored in games at Northwestern, at Michigan State, and vs. Purdue, while matchups against Maryland and Washington are close to toss-ups.

This is an exciting time for Indiana football, and I have them getting to a bowl in Cignetti’s first season at the helm.

Pick: Indiana Over 5.5 wins (-155 at bet365)

Bowling Green Over 6.5 wins (+100)

You can see what Scot Loeffler has been building with the Bowling Green Falcons after some difficult years early in his tenure.

Last year, Bowling Green went 5-3 in MAC play, which included a one-point loss to Toledo in a game where they led 28-10. The Falcons ended the year playing Minnesota tough in the Quick Lane Bowl, losing by just six points.

Heading into 2024, the Falcons have qualified for bowl games in back-to-back years, and this should be Loeffler’s best roster yet. With 15 returning starters, they are poised to be one of the strongest teams in the trenches, which is always important in the MAC.

Additionally, they get another year of Connor Bazelak under center. The former Missouri and Indiana QB threw for 1,935 yards and 12 touchdowns last season.

After a cupcake matchup against Fordham, Bowling Green faces back-to-back paycheck losses with trips to Happy Valley and Kyle Field. However, things then open up for the Falcons, and I have them favored in six of their next eight games before a potentially pivotal season finale when they host Miami (OH).

At even money, I like Bowling Green to at least match their seven wins from last season.

Pick: Bowling Green Over 6.5 wins (+100 at DraftKings)

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