UNLV vs Hawaii Odds, Picks and Predictions: Rebels Run Up the Score

There’s late-night college football on tonight as the UNLV Rebels and Hawaii Rainbow Warriors kick off on the island at 11:00 p.m. ET.

The Rebels got off to a hot start in 2022, winning four of their first five games. They’ve collapsed since, losing five straight. With two winnable games to close the year, can they reach bowl eligibility?

It’s been a massive struggle for Hawaii, who has lost four straight entering Week 12.

Which team will grab a much-needed win on the island? Check out our college football picks and predictions for UNLV vs. Hawaii to find out.  

UNLV vs Hawaii best odds

UNLV vs Hawaii picks and predictions

It’s been a season to forget for Hawaii football, sitting at just 2-9 in Year One under Timmy Chang. A rebuild was expected after an offseason in which Todd Graham left in an unceremonious split, while the roster was gutted with transfer portal departures. The team will look to break a four-game losing streak on Senior Night in hopes of going out on a high note to have something to build on heading into the offseason.

UNLV knows how it feels to be down in the dumps, as the Rebels finished just 2-16 in the first two years under Marcus Arroyo. They built momentum to end 2022 by winning two of their last four games and losing to a 12-win San Diego State team by only one score. Arroyo and company carried that momentum over to this season, surprisingly winning four of their first five games. The wheels have since fallen off the wagon, however, as UNLV has lost five-straight games. They’ll need to win out to reach a bowl, but that’s entirely a possibility considering a pair of two-win teams (Hawaii, Nevada) await. 

UNLV should be the better team on both sides of the ball. The Rebels rank 68th in EPA (expected points added, garbage time excluded) offensively and should move the ball effectively against a woeful Hawaii defense that ranks 118th in EPA and 106th in success rate. The Rebels have been much better offensively when dual-threat Doug Brumfield is in the lineup, and he looked healthy last week as the Rebels impressively scored 30 points on Fresno State while outgaining the Bulldogs 391 to 381 in a one-score loss. 

UNLV should be able to move the ball effectively on the ground considering it ranks third in rushing EPA and ninth in rushing explosiveness, while Hawaii is 120th in rushing EPA. This gives UNLV a big advantage and it should snag an easy win with Brumfield back in the lineup and performing well. The Rebels should be able to score repeatedly against the Rainbow Warriors, who rank 124th in the country in scoring defense (36.3 PPG). I’ll take UNLV’s team total Over as my best bet

My best bet: UNLV team total Over 33.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

UNLV vs Hawaii spread analysis

UNLV opened -10 but the line has moved to -11 at most spots as of this writing. Both teams have been profitable to back in 2022, as UNLV is 7-3 ATS while Hawaii is 7-4 ATS. 

It may not seem like this at surface level, but this is a big game for UNLV. Reaching a bowl game is a very real possibility and that would be a big deal for this program, so every win counts. We’ve already established that there is a clear advantage for the Rebels when they have the ball, but they should also maintain an edge when Hawaii is on offense. Defensively, UNLV ranks 95th in EPA and should contain a bad Hawaii offense that checks in at 117th in EPA. 

One factor in Hawaii favor is that the Rainbow Warriors have been very profitable at the Clarence T.C. Ching Complex, going 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. 

I wouldn’t be too worried about that trend and am favoring UNLV against the spread in this spot. The Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and have clear advantages as the better team with more to play for considering a bowl game is on the line. There is still a -10.5 available at some spots, but it seems like that is heading in the other direction. I’d play UNLV up to -12. 

UNLV vs Hawaii Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 59.5 but has seen a significant drop since, as 55.5 is the most widely-available number at current. What caused such a steep drop in price? The current weather forecast calls for sustained winds of 22 mph with gusts of up to 35 mph. This is a significant amount of wind that will hamper both teams’ passing attacks, so the drop in price is not surprising. 

UNLV is an even 5-5 to the Over, while Hawaii has gone just 4-7 to the Over thanks to a moribund offense averaging just 19.3 points per game. That being said, running the ball will be important given the weather forecast, and both teams should find success in that realm.

Louisville transfer Aidan Robbins has racked up 850 rushing yards and nine scores while playing in just nine games this season. He should feast in this matchup against a terrible Hawaii defense allowing 221.4 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry. UNLV has a massive advantage up front, ranking 17th in line yards (Hawaii 123rd) and 13th in stuff rate (Hawaii 122nd). 

As for Hawaii, the strength of the offense has also been the rushing attack. The Rainbow Warriors have two good backs in Dedrick Parson (leads the team with 11 touchdowns, while no other player has more than three) and Tylan Hines (8.0 yards per carry as just a freshman). Hawaii ranks 16th in rushing success rate while UNLV ranks just 127th in rushing success rate defensively, which is a substantial difference. 

For as bad as Hawaii has been defending the rush, UNLV has been even worse, surrendering 222.9 rushing yards per game. The Rainbow Warriors have a veteran offensive line that ranks 13th in line yards and 11th in stuff rate, fantastic numbers that will play against a weak UNLV front ranking 122nd in line yards and 114th in stuff rate.

Despite the wind, both teams should find great success on the ground and still be able to march the ball down the field. I will buy back on the Over. 

UNLV vs Hawaii betting trend to know

The Over is 7-2 in UNLV’s last nine games following a straight-up loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for UNLV vs. Hawaii.

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