NCAAF Underdog Picks of the Week: Razorbacks Find Redemption

Arkansas ML at Auburn

Best odds: +125 at BetMGM

The Arkansas Razorbacks are likely still kicking themselves for giving away the game against Oklahoma State. Keep in mind, they dropped a touchdown pass that would’ve made it a 21-0 game just 20 minutes into the game, and two plays later Taylen Green threw a pick six that flipped momentum.

The Razorbacks destroyed the Cowboys, gaining 232 yards on 47 carries while throwing for over 400 more. They weren’t fazed on the road, and they’ll be ready to feast on the Auburn Tigers defense on Saturday.

The Tigers are giving up big plays in the passing game, with opponents posting an EPA of 1.63 on successful plays through the air. That’s bad news, given the Hogs are posting an EPA of 1.56.

And Auburn is struggling to stop the run as well, as New Mexico ran for 157 yards at a rate of six yards a pop. Now the Tigers will try to stop an Arkansas rushing attack gaining nearly four line yards per rush and sporting an offensive success rate of 55%. 

Making matters worse, the Tigers defense can’t get off the field. They’ve allowed a third-down conversion rate of nearly 44%, ranked 89th in the country, and are allowing more than four yards per rushing attempt.

Auburn can put up points of its own, but quarterback Hank Brown has yet to face a Power 4 defense. The freshman is about to face a gauntlet of SEC defenses, and he’s attempted fewer than 40 throws in his career. 

Arkansas ranks Top 15 in EPA against the run, with an excellent stuff rate and only 0.1 open field yards allowed per carry. The Hogs will get enough stops to force Brown to make plays, and he will fall short of the task.

Utah ML at Oklahoma State

Best odds: +118 at Caesars

Given that the Utah Utes were favored as recently as Wednesday, knocking off the Oklahoma State Cowboys wouldn’t be the biggest shocker. Cam Rising's status is still a bit in the air, and full confirmation that he starts for the visitors could swing the line back in their favor.

But for now, Utah is the underdog, and I love it as a bettor. All signs point to Rising being available, and that means Oklahoma State might be in for another rough outing defensively. 

The Utes have posted 4.5 points per opportunity this season, scoring on every red-zone visit. They’re gaining five yards per carry, and while their passing numbers are in the bottom half nationally, they have an EPA of 1.66 on successful pass plays. 

Rising threw for only 92 yards against Baylor before his injury, but he still threw two touchdowns. The Utah offense will find success against Oklahoma State the same way Arkansas did, by taking advantage of a defense giving up 3.2 line yards per rush and stuffing just 12% of opponent rush attempts. 

Oklahoma State’s offense is solid, but Utah’s defense will be the best it's faced thus far. The Utes are creating Havoc on better than 22% of snaps, and rank 10th nationally in third-down success. The Cowboys have yet to allow a sack, but Alan Bowman will be pressured often.

Utah employs a lot of man coverage with three outstanding cornerbacks, and Oklahoma State’s quick passing attack will be slowed down enough to let its front seven get to Bowman. The Cowboys haven’t been able to find success running the ball and their inability to use the run to keep Utah’s defense honest will just contribute to the home team’s downfall.

Coastal Carolina ML vs Virginia

Best odds: +150 at BetMGM

The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have lost just two of their last 26 home games, and I expect them to maintain that mark when the Virginia Cavaliers visit on Saturday.

The raw data looks good for the Hoos’ rush defense, as they’re holding opponents to just 3.5 yards per carry. But they’ve got one of the lowest stuff rates in college football, get very little push up front, and they’ve already given up runs of 10+ yards to nine different players through three games. 

They’ll need to perform much better if they hope to stop the Chanticleers on the ground. Ethan Vasko and Christian Washington are both averaging better than 4.7 ypc this season, and they’re posting 5.2 yards per attempt as a team. Four different running backs already have runs of 17 or more yards behind an offensive line averaging 3.5 line yards per carry.

Virginia lost by two touchdowns at home to Maryland last week, in large part because they couldn’t take care of the football. Anthony Colandrea threw two picks and the Terps forced two fumbles. They also went just 3-for-15 on third down, and are converting on less than 21% of such plays this year.

The Hoos are struggling to run the ball, gaining just 3.4 yards a carry. If they can’t change that against Coastal Carolina, they’ll be exposed to the home team’s strong pass rush and a defense that ranks 13th in interception rate. That’s bad news for a quarterback in Colandrea who already has thrown four picks.

Only four teams average more rushing attempts per game than Coastal Carolina, and it'll find plenty of success keeping it on the ground against Virginia. Its defense will get off the field on third down, getting the ball right back to their offense, and the visitors will simply wear down.