I'm back for more cash as we head into another week of college football action, as Week 4 saw this column go 2-1 with underdog picks.
Here’s who I’m backing to win outright as an underdog in my Week 5 college football picks.
CFB Week 5 upset picks
- Arkansas (+185 at bet365)
- BYU (+140 at BetMGM)
- Northern Illinois (+230 at FanDuel)
Best college football Week 5 underdog picks
Arkansas ML vs Texas A&M
Best odds: +185 at bet365
I’ve been riding with the Arkansas Razorbacks as an underdog all season, and I’m doing so again this week. The Texas A&M Aggies are also average against the run, and have been helped by teams having a low run-rate.
Their run defense will be heavily tested here. Only six teams run the ball more times per game than Arkansas, and the Hogs are picking up almost five yards a carry. It helps when your line is giving you 3.5 yards per attempt, and your backs are frequently picking up second-level yards.
Taylen Green has shown the ability to create big plays both with his arm and his legs, and he’s the better quarterback in this game by far. He ranks Top 40 among over 270 quarterbacks in PFF’s passing grade, and he’s seventh in run grade. He’s very tough to take down with a 6-foot-6 frame, and ran for 80 yards last week against Auburn while having a below-average passing day.
His ability to escape the pocket will be key. Texas A&M has an outstanding pass rusher in Shemar Stewart, but as a team it has a sack rate of less than 5% on the season. Green has posted big numbers when given a clean pocket, and he’s got an excellent big-throw rate. With the Aggies posting a 1.59 EPA on pass defense, that should lead to a few chunk plays through the air.
Connor Bazelak and Harold Fannin Jr. tore apart the Aggie secondary last week, with the Bowling Green quarterback and tight end connecting eight times for 145 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons also kept things close as they ran for 106 yards on 21 carries once you discount sacks.
This game being played at AT&T Stadium is also key, as it takes away much of the “12th Man” element for the Aggies. The Hogs are defending the run well and should be able to make Texas A&M’s offense one dimensional. With the Aggies unsure who will be their quarterback this weekend, they won’t want to have to rely on the pass against a Top 15 defense in interception rate.
I’ll back the team with the better rushing attack and quarterback getting the points, especially against a defense that allowed nearly 200 yards on the ground to Notre Dame.
BYU ML vs Baylor
Best odds: +140 at BetMGM
I nearly backed the BYU Cougars last week, but bet them against the spread in multiple parlays. I’m not doubting them anymore. This Cougar defense is for real, and it’s going to carry them to the win over the Baylor Bears.
The Bears sit at 2-2 on the season after a tough overtime loss to Colorado last week, and their two wins came against Tarleton State and Air Force. This will be their first home game against a Power 4 school, and their two away games vs. such opponents left much to be desired.
The Bears aren’t a great passing team. They’re not protecting their quarterback, and while the Buffaloes had just once sack last week, they hounded Sawyer Robertson all night. He threw for just 148 yards on 11 of 21 attempts and relied on a few huge downfield throws against broken coverage.
Baylor wants to run the ball, as evidenced by their 14th-highest run rate in college football. But the Bears aren’t exceptional at that either. They rank 81st in EPA/rush and gained just 108 yards on 40 carries in their loss to Utah a few weeks ago.
BYU’s defense is similar to Utah’s, and that’s bad news for the Bears. While they allowed the Wildcats to run for 228 yards last week, Kansas State failed to score a rushing touchdown. They were forced to settle for two field goals to cap off a pair of drives that went 12+ plays.
Baylor won’t be able to find that kind of rushing success, which means Robertson will have to make plays. The Bears have yet to throw a pick this season, and I expect that will change against a BYU defense ranked among the national leaders in secondary Havoc and ranks ninth in EPA/pass.
The Cougars won’t run away the way they did a week ago, where they got touchdowns from both defense and special teams. But they’re ranked 32nd in EPA/rush and they’ve taken down two ranked teams by relying on their defense. They’ll do enough offensively to wear down the Bears and get the win.
Northern Illinois ML vs NC State
Best odds: +230 at FanDuel
The Northern Illinois Huskies suffered their first defeat of the season last weekend, falling in overtime to Buffalo. The Huskies were unable to find much success through the air, with Ethan Hampton throwing for just 194 yards and a pick on 43 attempts. It was a key reason why they converted just nine of 22 third-down attempts.
But the metrics show that Buffalo’s defense is pretty solid, especially against the pass. The NC State Wolfpack may have better athletes on paper, but the defense won’t be as good as what the Huskies faced last week.
The Wolfpack rank 128th in points allowed per play. Granted, they’ve faced Tennessee and Clemson so far this season, but there’s been little resistance shown. They rank 91st in EPA/rush, 89th in early down EPA, and while their EPA/pass is 76th, they’re not getting to the quarterback as they rank 120th in sack rate.
Offensively, the Wolfpack aren’t faring much better. In fact, they might be doing worse. NC State ranks in the 100s in rushing and passing EPA, 108th in third/fourth down success rate, have an interception rate that ranks 89th in the country.
Northern Illinois isn’t a juggernaut by any means, but the Huskies match up well here. They’ve yet to allow a sack this season, which makes it unlikely the Wolfpack improve on that metric. Their defense ranks 10th in sack rate and 27th in interception rate, which should allow them to cause problems for whoever takes snaps this weekend as Grayson McCall is questionable.
Nearly one of every 20 Wolfpack pass attempts this season has resulted in a turnover-worthy play, while NC State quarterbacks have a 1.32% big-throw rate. The Wolfpack aren’t finding much success running the ball, and with Northern Illinois allowing just 3.1 yards per carry, that’s going to put more pressure on the passing game.
Northern Illinois has the second-best third-down defense in the country. Look for the Huskies to get off the field, force turnovers, and wear down the NC State defense with the ground game as they not only cover the 7.5-point spread but win outright.
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