It’s rivalry time in Los Angeles in Week 13 as the USC Trojans make the short trip to Pasadena to face the UCLA Bruins.
UCLA needs a win to remain in the hunt for bowl eligibility, whereas USC looks to finish strong in a disappointing season overall and needs one more win to reach a bowl.
Read on for my USC vs. UCLA predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 23.
Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET from the Rose Bowl, with the game airing on FOX.
USC vs UCLA prediction and best bet
Who will win?
The USC Trojans have had a disappointing season by any measure, but they’re still the much better team. The offense has been often ridiculed but has still been superb, moving the ball (11th in success rate), giving them a massive advantage over the UCLA’ Bruins’ defense (123rd in success rate).
UCLA showed some offensive improvement in the middle of the year but has regressed once again and ranks just 108th in success rate overall. The Trojans are better at throwing it and running it offensively and even have the better defense, according to the metrics.
My best bet
Under 51.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The UCLA Bruins is 4-6 O/U this season, and even that mark looks surprising, as I’d expect them to have a fair amount of Unders, given the makeup of this team. The offense plays slow (127th in tempo) and struggles to move the ball, ranking 98th in EPA per play.
The Bruins are very banged up at the offensive line, a position where they’ve struggled for most of the year anyway (131st in line yards, 124th in stuff rate). After losing Niki Prongos against Iowa and backup Jaylan Jeffers last week in Seattle, and Reuben Unije before that, they’ll likely be down to fourth-string left tackle walkon Yutaka Mahe in Week 13.
There’s rain in the forecast for Saturday, with an 80% chance of precipitation at the Rose Bowl for the first hour of the game and a 66% chance from then on out. That throws a wrench into Eric Bienemy’s offensive philosophy, which involves a regular dose of passes (17th in pass rate).
The Bruins have struggled mightily on the ground, averaging 3.1 yards per rush. Running back TJ Harden hasn’t found much room behind a defective offensive line, and the team checks in at 130th in EPA per rush and 131st in rushing success rate.
On the flip side, the USC Trojans have been an elite rushing team this year, ranking 19th in EPA per rush and eighth in rushing success rate. Mississippi State transfer running back Woody Marks has had a banner year (1,320 scrimmage yards, nine touchdowns) behind an offensive line that stands out in run blocking (sixth in line yards, 20th in stuff rate).
The Trojans may find running room a bit difficult to come by against a UCLA defense that has held every opponent other than Oregon to no more than 135 rushing yards. The Bruins are allowing just 3.3 yards per rush on the year despite facing plenty of elite-level competition.
USC will test that, but it may not find many chunk plays against the nation’s third-best defense in terms of the rushing explosives allowed. That means the clock should be moving throughout the game.
UCLA’s secondary has some holes, ranking 127th in passing success rate. It’s possible that the Trojans find yardage in the air given the of a pass rush they’ll be facing, but that’s also not a sure thing given the rain and that sophomore quarterback Jayden Maiava is mistake prone and didn’t beat out a struggling Miller Moss this offseason.
Give me the Under.
USC vs UCLA same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 51.5
USC -4.5
Jayden Maiava Over 245.5 passing yards
USC has better metrics on both sides of the ball and will likely be able to handle the rainy conditions better. UCLA is one of the worst rushing teams in the nation and will be playing with a fourth-string left tackle, which hardly seems like a recipe for an offensive breakout.
Despite the weather, Jayden Maiava’s passing props still seem to hold some value this week against a pass funnel UCLA defense that has shut down rushing lanes while offering free transport through the air.
Despite some early mistakes last week against Nebraska, the UNLV transfer had an impressive first start overall and really turned it on in the second half. He completed 71.4% of his attempts for 259 yards while throwing three touchdowns and an interception.
Maiava shows a willingness to throw the ball downfield, which could open up this offense. Plenty of downfield threats are in the receiving room, but we haven’t seen them utilized much, as Moss was reluctant to hit explosives.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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USC vs UCLA odds
USC vs UCLA live odds
USC vs UCLA opening odds
- USC vs. UCLA spread: UCLA +4.5 (-110)
- USC vs. UCLA moneyline: USC (-190), UCLA (+155)
- USC vs. UCLA Over/Under: 51.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
USC vs UCLA spread and Over/Under analysis
- USC has won six of the last nine meetings in this rivalry, going 5-4 ATS.
- Both teams have been profitable for bettors despite having disappointing seasons, sitting with identical 6-4 ATS records.
- USC has cashed the First Half Total Under in four of its last five games. That number is 26.5 at BetMGM Sportsbook.
- 53% of Covers Consensus users are backing UCLA on the spread, while 64% are taking the Over.
USC vs UCLA betting trend to know
UCLA is 1-7 O/U in its last eight games at the Rose Bowl. Find more college football betting trends for USC vs UCLA.
USC vs UCLA game info
| Location: | Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-23, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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