USC vs Utah Odds, Picks and Predictions: Trojans Look to Make Statement

The USC Trojans get their first real test of the Lincoln Riley era when they head to Salt Lake City to take on the Utah Utes.

It has pretty much been smooth sailing for the Trojans on the way to their 6-0 record, but they will be underdogs for the first time when they visit Utah. 

The Utes may be a disappointing 4-2 and are coming off a tough loss to UCLA, but this is still a good football team and one that won’t just hand over its Pac-12 crown to the seemingly preordained Trojans.

I break it all down and give you my best bet in our college football picks and predictions for USC vs. Utah on Saturday, October 15.

USC vs Utah best odds

USC vs Utah picks and predictions

The Lincoln Riley experience on offense has certainly delivered through six games, as the Trojans are putting up over 40 points per game on their way to a perfect 6-0 record.

But while the start of the Riley era has been pretty much everything a USC fan could have hoped for, not everything has been as perfect as the spotless straight-up record implies, particularly the play of quarterback Caleb Williams.

The Trojans QB is completing just 56.9% of his passes over the last three games. They are just 1-2 ATS in those contests, which includes managing just 17 points in their only tough road game at Oregon State.

Meanwhile, this has not been the season Utah has been hoping for, with already two losses on the season. The Utes were definitely shocked by getting socked in the mouth by UCLA last week.

It was the second time this season that the Utes had allowed more than 200 yards rushing, and of course, they lost both games. So, clearly, this is not the same Utah defense from years past, as the strength of this year’s team lies in the secondary instead of upfront.

Riley could give us a healthy dose of running back Travis Dye in this one. The Oregon transfer is starting to ramp it up, rushing 60 times for 344 yards in the last three weeks, including carrying it 28 times for 149 yards last week vs. Washington State.

But the Trojans won’t be the only ones running the ball in this one. Utah gets to face a USC run defense that ranks 91st in the country in opponent rushing yards per attempt when facing FBS teams.

It’s really easy to see both teams wanting to control the game with the ground attack, hoping to set up the downfield passing attack. That means longer possessions and a running clock.

On top of that, USC is averaging just 13.7 first-half points over their last three games. While in Utah’s two games against UCLA and Florida, the Utes scored a combined 23 points.

Mix in the great atmosphere at Rice-Eccles Stadium, and this should be a tightly-played, low-scoring first half. 

My best bet: First half total Under 32.5 (-112 at FanDuel)

There's another bet I like here. And it may seem a little odd because Williams has only thrown one interception all year, but at even money, I like him to throw one this week.

As noted, he's battled his accuracy over the last three games. Williams will probably be forced to throw in some tough spots in what I expect to be a close game. Keep in mind that Utah also has 10 interceptions this season.

My best bet: Williams Over 0.5 interceptions (+100 at DraftKings)

USC vs Utah spread analysis

With all of the hype around USC and Utah coming into Saturday's game, I semi-expected to see this game as a pick'em or with the Utes as a slight underdog. But sportsbooks are still giving Utah what I would call the proper respect. 

Both of Utah’s losses came on the road, and this game is at home, where the Utes are much tougher. Cam Rising is still having a good season, throwing for 1,440 yards while completing 60% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and three picks.

Meanwhile, Williams hasn’t been as efficient lately, and USC didn’t put on a great performance in its only other really tough road game.

Unfortunately, I can see a wide variety of outcomes in this game, where both teams can win and cover. So, it’s a stay-away game for me.

USC vs Utah Over/Under analysis

The total hit the board at 59.5, and early sharp money hammered the Over, moving it as high as 65.0 at some books. 

I have a play on the Under for the first-half total, so I would lean that way for the full game as well, but I have a little trepidation over 60 minutes that is holding me back.

It’s not crazy to think that the Utah defense can hold up for a while before Riley makes some adjustments at halftime to help get some more points. The balance of the USC offense could also pose a problem for the Utes.

We also just saw what the QB-RB duo of Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet did against Utah last week.

That said, I would still lean towards the Under at this elevated number.

USC vs Utah betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in USC's last four road games and is 6-2 in Utah's last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Find more NCAA betting trends for USC vs. Utah.

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