The Colorado Buffaloes will try to keep their long shot College Football Playoff hopes alive as they host the Utah Utes on Saturday afternoon.
The Buffaloes are the better team here and should have their way with a Utes team that has been finding ways to lose, as I’ll break down in my Utah vs. Colorado predictions.
Read on to learn more about my early leans and free college football picks for Saturday, November 16.
Utah vs Colorado predictions
Early spread lean
Colorado -10 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Don’t look now, but the Colorado Buffaloes have won six of their last seven and sit in second place in the Big 12. With three winnable games remaining on the schedule, it’s not inconceivable that Colorado could find itself in a conference championship game with a shot at winning a spot in the playoffs.
The Buffaloes have been even more successful for bettors. Colorado is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games, including covering four times as a favorite in that stretch. The Buffaloes have won by double-digits on five occasions, including in each of their last three Big 12 matchups.
The Utah Utes, on the other hand, have been a disappointment, particularly over the last six weeks.
The Utes have lost five straight games, and it’s little comfort that they’ve been in every one of these contests. They’ve lost by 13 points or fewer in each of those games, and by a single score in each of the last three.
No game exemplified this trend more than last week’s heartbreaking loss to the BYU Cougars, when the Utes were called for a controversial defensive holding penalty before giving up a game-deciding field goal.
By now, we all know about Colorado’s ability to move the ball in the passing game. Shedeur Sanders has thrown for 24 touchdowns — with LaJohntay Wester joining Travis Hunter to give the Buffaloes another aerial threat — and there is a deep stable of wide receivers behind those two.
But the Colorado defense has also improved significantly, allowing just 22.6 ppg and averaging 3.2 sacks per contest. That will pose a real problem for a Utah offense that hasn’t scored more than 21 points in a game since mid-September.
Colorado is at home, chasing down a spot in the Big 12 championship, and should simply overwhelm Utah from a talent perspective. I like the Buffaloes to cover on the way to handing the Utes a sixth straight loss.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 47.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
These two teams bring completely different styles to the table. Utah’s offense may be struggling, but the Utes are still playing well on defense, which is how they’ve been hanging tough even during the losing streak. Utah allows just 17.1 ppg, which ranks 11th in the nation.
Meanwhile, Colorado is playing to an average total of 55 points. The Colorado defense is undoubtedly improved from last year, but is still far from elite, and the Over is 4-1-1 over the Buffaloes’ last six games. The unit generates pressure and a fair number of turnovers, but also averages 8.1 penalties per game, one of the worst totals in the nation.
That said, Colorado’s overall defensive numbers are solid, as they’ve held four of their last five opponents to 27 points or fewer. Given Utah’s inability to score points this season, especially as of late, I expect the Buffaloes to keep the Utes in check regardless of any occasional miscues.
That means both teams have reason to expect at least some defensive success. The question is whether that will be enough to keep the final score Under the modest 47.5-point total that has been set early on this game.
My early analysis suggests that it will. Utah hasn’t played to a total Over that number since its win over the Utah State Aggies on September 14. The Utes aren’t likely to breakthrough against Colorado, which means it will be up to the Buffaloes to carry most of the total. And while they’re capable of scoring against anyone, Utah should at least keep a relatively one-dimensional offense in check for some of the game.
Utah vs Colorado live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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