Virginia Tech vs Miami Player Props & Best Bets: Hokies Offense Held in Check

Prop bet #1: Jaylin Lane Under 44.5 receiving yards

-115 at BetMGM

There is no good way to approach Miami’s defense, top-10 in expected points added (EPA) per snap against both the rush and the pass. In picking between the two evils, it should be assumed Virginia Tech will do its best to stick to its own preference, running the ball. The Hokies rush 6.8% more often than the average team would in a given game state.

Continuing that may be Virginia Tech’s best approach to threatening an upset. Shorten this game, keep Cam Ward & Co. off the field, and maybe things get interesting late. Running the ball obviously helps that cause by keeping the clock ticking, but it will also be vital given the Hokies fail on nearly two-thirds of their dropbacks, No. 114 in the country per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com.

Reconsider those thoughts. Virginia Tech’s best chance at a win is to shorten it by running the ball, and the Hokies are terrible at throwing the ball in the first place. An emphasis in running the ball should come at the expense of their receivers, most notably veteran Jaylin Lane, who has already fallen short of this prop in two of four games this season.

Prop bet #2: Ali Jennings Under 34.5 receiving yards

-115 at BetMGM

Jennings missed last week’s loss against Rutgers due to an undisclosed injury, but he reportedly was a full participant in practice this week. He was widely expected to play against the Scarlet Knights, officially a game-time decision but some reports coming out that he was set to line up.

Not knowing the injury — and someone please holler if they have details on it, as a search this week revealed nothing — it would not be unprecedented for a player to try to give it a go and have to pull out after a few plays. That possibility, even if not one anyone should cheer for when it comes to someone else’s health, creates immediate value on this Under.

But so does the fact that even in his last game, Jennings caught just two passes for 26 yards, against a middling pass defense at Old Dominion. Miami will not make life so easy, and thus, the Hurricanes should make Jennings an afterthought.

Prop bet #3: Kyren Drones Under 0.5 passing touchdowns

+150 at BetMGM

The plus-money value here raises an eyebrow. Don’t be mistaken, it should absolutely be a plus-money prop bet, but +150 implies about a 60% chance Kyren Drones throws a touchdown pass on Friday night, and that seems steep.

Drones has averaged just 14 pass completions the last three weeks, completing only 56.8% of his passes. He has thrown two interceptions in that stretch, matching his two touchdowns.

And those were all against lesser pass defenses than Miami’s.

The most worrying thought for anyone expecting Drones to throw for a touchdown — aside from the aforementioned idea of the Hokies focusing on the run in order to shorten the game — is the Hurricanes’ stout defense where it matters most. Giving up quality drives on only 20.6% of opposing possessions is impressive enough, No. 8 in the country, but it is not as crippling for foes as is giving up just 2.21 points per quality drive, No. 13 in the country.

Even if Virginia Tech finds it way into a threatening area, Miami is most likely to force a field goal. Drones should throw a touchdown pass by the end of 60 minutes, but it is not a 60% certainty he does.