Two of the country’s best teams that don’t reside in a Power Conference square off in Week 5 as the Washington State Cougars travel to face the No. 25 Boise State Broncos.
The Cougars are coming off a thrilling 54-52 overtime victory over San Jose State, while the Broncos demolished Portland State 56-14. My Washington State vs. Boise State predictions explain why this affair will see just as many points as those matchups.
Read all about it in my college football picks for September 28 below.
Washington State vs Boise State prediction
My best bet
Over 63.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Week 5’s scintillating matchup between the Washington State Cougars and Boise State Broncos features two teams moving and grooving offensively.
The Cougs operate a fast-tempo, points-friendly scheme under offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle which is a friendly style for shootouts. That was abundantly clear during last week's game against San Jose State which resulted in 106 total points, and there will likely be many more high-scoring, high-variance games going forward.
Wazzu ranks 17th in tempo, snapping the ball 2.47 times per minute. Quarterback John Mateer is a threat through the air (9.5 yards per attempt, 275.5 passing yards per game) and on the ground (team-high 425 rushing yards on 7.5 yards per carry). The Cougs have been efficient (27th in EPA per play) and explosive (third in explosiveness), proving a challenge for anyone to stop.
Boise State returned much of its defense from a year ago, but the numbers weren’t great in 2023, and they’ve been worse so far (115th in EPA per play, 117th in explosiveness).
On the flip side, I believe Boise State’s offense is the best unit in this game and the best of any Group of 5 team in the country. The Broncos rank 10th in EPA per play and are led by superstar Ashton Jeanty, who leads the nation with 199.3 scrimmage yards per game.
Boise is averaging 48.7 ppg and will be hard to deny as long as Jeanty is around. He’s truly the most dominant force in college football, and his presence changes the complexity of every game.
The Broncos are 3-0 O/U to start the year, and I see that trend continuing with a willing dance partner in Week 5. Both teams rank top 40 in tempo, have been efficient moving the ball offensively, and have highly suspect defenses.
Washington State vs Boise State same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 63.5
Boise State -7.5
It’s hard not to be a fan of what Washington State has done so far this year. The Cougs upset rival Washington 24-19, soundly defeated Texas Tech 37-16, had a thrilling 54-52 win against San Jose State, and averaged an amazing 12.5 yards per play in a 70-30 demolition of Portland State.
Still, the vulnerabilities are evident. Going toe-to-toe with San Jose State — a team with a new coaching staff and a totally rebuilt roster — is not encouraging. The defense has surrendered at least 449 yards in every game.
Boise State nearly notched an outright upset over No. 8 Oregon on the road, so this high-caliber team can clearly play. This will be the Broncos' first home game of the year against an FBS opponent, whereas this will be the Cougs’ first true road game, so I like this scheduling spot for the Broncos.
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Washington State vs Boise State odds
Washington State vs Boise State live odds
Washington State vs Boise State opening odds
- Washington State vs. Boise State spread: Boise State -7
- Washington State vs. Boise State moneyline: Washington State +225, Boise State -275
- Washington State vs. Boise State Over/Under: 64.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Washington State vs Boise State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Boise State has covered the first quarter spread (-3) in eight of its last 12 games.
- Taking a look at the first half total (31.5) might be worth it. Washington State has hit the first-half total Over in seven of its last 12, while Boise State has cashed the first-half total Over in nine of its last 12
- Dating back to last season, the Broncos are 6-0 O/U in their last six games.
- Text 4.
Washington State vs Boise State betting trend to know
Boise State is 9-3 O/U in its last 12 games at Albertsons Stadium. Find more college football betting trends for Washington State vs Boise State.
Washington State vs Boise State game info
| Location: | Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-28, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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