The final week of the 2024 NFL regular season is ahead, and there is only a single postseason berth in each conference still up for grabs and just five teams in contention for those spots.
Week 18 will wrap up with a bout for the NFC No. 1 seed between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football, and it shapes up to be a classic.
There aren’t many available betting markets remaining, so here are my top NFL picks and NFL playoff predictions for the 2024 postseason with just a week to go.
NFL Playoffs predictions
The Atlanta Falcons had their shot to win the NFC South, and they blew it.
It’s easy to blame head coach Raheem Morris’ late clock management in Week 17 against the Washington Commanders, but there were additional losses along the way that cost them the division and a home playoff game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a huge home favorite over the injury-riddled New Orleans Saints in Week 18, and it’s a win-and-in setup for Tampa.
A Bucs loss and Falcons win would give Atlanta the NFC South crown, but that’s looking incredibly unlikely heading into the final week of the season.
The best available odds for the Bucs to win the AFC South are -1300 through FanDuel, which pays out $7.69 on a $100 wager. Your mileage may vary, but that juice isn’t worth the squeeze for me.
Either way, I’m steering clear of the futures market and Week 18 matchups for both the Bucs and Falcons.
Previous picks:
- Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North (+140 at bet365 on Dec. 3)
- Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North (+175 at bet365 on Dec. 10)
- Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North (+140 at DraftKings on Dec. 17)
- Washington Commanders to miss the playoffs (+270 at DraftKings on Dec. 3)
- Washington Commanders to miss the playoffs (+400 at DraftKings on Dec. 10)
- Atlanta Falcons to make the playoffs (+225 at bet365 on Dec. 17)
- Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North (-165 at bet365 on Dec. 24)
- Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl (+1400 at BetMGM on Dec. 24)
No. 1 AFC seed prediction
This market is no longer available.
Previous pick:
- Buffalo Bills to be No. 1 seed in the AFC (+140 at DraftKings on Dec. 3)
- Kansas City Chiefs to be No. 1 seed in the AFC (-390 at FanDuel on Dec. 10)
- Kansas City Chiefs to be No. 1 seed in the AFC (-190 at FanDuel on Dec. 17)
- Kansas City Chiefs to be No. 1 seed in the AFC (-700 at FanDuel on Dec. 24)
No. 1 NFC seed prediction
The winner of the Week 18 showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions will earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC and have the luxury of an extra week of rest and prep, while the loser will hit the highway for a Wild Card game despite a sterling 14-3 record.
Detroit is a consensus -2.5 home favorite for the NFC North tilt, and despite the compiling injuries on both sides of the ball, the Lions keep adding tallies to the wins column. Of course, Detroit also held on to beat Minny 31-29 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 7.
Still, I like the Vikings in this spot because their defense has stepped up down the stretch, and I’m expecting them to stall just enough Detroit drives in Motor City to pull off the upset.
Minny has allowed the second-lowest EPA per play and just 18.2 points per game during its nine-game winning streak, and I also value the Vikings ranking third in pass-rush win rate and fourth in run-stop win rate for the season.
On the flip side, the Lions have surrendered 30.0 points per game with the highest EPA per play allowed through their past five games. Sure, it’s a bit of a cherry-picked stat, but ranking LAST jumps off the page.
Finally, while Detroit head coach Dan Campbell garners oodles of praise, Kevin O’Connoll has been just as up to the task on the Minny sideline. I’m confident the Vikings can score enough to keep pace at Ford Field on Sunday night, and I also expect the Minnesota defense to make just enough stops to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Pick: Vikings moneyline (+130 at FanDuel)
Previous pick:
- Philadelphia Eagles to be No. 1 seed in the NFC (+190 at bet365 on Dec. 3)
- Philadelphia Eagles to be No. 1 seed in the NFC (+430 at FanDuel on Dec. 10)
- Philadelphia Eagles to be No. 1 seed in the NFC (+170 at bet365 on Dec. 17)
- Detroit Lions to be No. 1 seed in the NFC (-300 at bet365 on Dec. 24)
AFC Wild Card prediction
Sportsbooks are all but handing the Denver Broncos the No. 7 seed in the AFC. Denver is a huge home favorite over the visiting Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18, and the Broncos clinch the final wild-card berth with a win.
It’s just that Denver hasn’t beaten a good team since going into Raymond James Stadium and upsetting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26-7 in Week 3.
Since, the Broncos have lost to every playoff-bound team they’ve faced, and I’m not convinced they simply stomp over the Chiefs – even with the likelihood that KC opts to rest key starters.
Kansas City backup quarterback Carson Wentz has a lot to prove, and this isn’t meaningless football for the next-man-up at the position and multiple other Chiefs looking to show off.
Plus, wouldn’t a Week 18 win over a divisional rival to potentially end their season be the perfect momentum builder for Kansas City heading into a bye week?
I like the Miami Dolphins as a longshot to punch that final AFC postseason ticket.
The New York Jets have been grounded for months, and the Dolphins have ramped it up on defense down the stretch.
Miami has allowed just 18.1 points per game and ranks sixth in EPA per play allowed, and the Dolphins have surrendered the second-lowest EPA per dropback and sixth-lowest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks since Week 10.
If you don’t like taking the flier on Miami to make the playoffs, consider backing the Chiefs and the points in Week 18.
Pick: Miami to make the playoffs (+760 at FanDuel)
Pick: Chiefs +10.5 (-118 at Pinnacle)
Previous pick:
- Pittsburgh Steelers to earn a wild card (+135 at DraftKings on Dec. 3)
- Pittsburgh Steelers to earn a wild card (+170 on Dec. 10)
NFC Wild Card predictions
This market is no longer available.
Previous pick:
- Minnesota Vikings to earn a wild card (-500 at DraftKings on Dec. 3)
- Seattle Seahawks to earn a wild card (+1200 on Dec. 10)
NFL Playoff Predictions FAQ
The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs begin with Super Wild Card Weekend on Saturday, January 11, 2025.
Super Bowl LIX, also known as Super Bowl 59, will take place on Sunday, February 9, 2025 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA.
When betting on the NFL playoffs, consider team performance during the regular season, head-to-head matchups, individual player stats, injuries, coaching strategies, historical playoff performance, and any weather conditions that might impact the game.
Yes. Playoff games are generally more unpredictable because of the high stakes, and teams often make adjustments or raise their level of play. You should take into account the increased intensity, as well as factors like injuries, team depth, and historical performance.
Yes, these are called player prop bets. Common player prop bets include predicting the number of rushing yards, passing touchdowns, or total receptions a player will have.
