49ers vs Bears Week 1 Picks and Predictions: New Bears Era Gets Rough Start

Two of the NFL’s most storied franchises will collide in Week 1 as the San Francisco 49ers visit the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field this Sunday. 

The 49ers fought the eventual Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams valiantly in the 2021 NFC Championship Game, but ultimately lost 20-17. The Bears limped to a 6-11 record in quarterback Justin Fields’ rookie campaign, and head coach Matt Nagy and GM Ryan Pace answered for it with their jobs. 

Can Chicago secure its first win in the Matt Eberflus-Ryan Poles era, or will San Francisco’s newly-anointed starting quarterback, Trey Lance, have his day in the sun? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for 49ers vs Bears on Sunday, September 11.

49ers vs Bears best odds

49ers vs Bears picks and predictions

The weather forecast is not pleasant for Sunday’s game at Soldier Field, and even if it were, Under bettors would more than likely prevail. 

Rain showers are probable for game day with wind gusts of up to 20 mph. Such interference from Mother Nature is more than likely to significantly increase the difficulty of moving the football down the field for each offense. 

The training wheels are coming off in Week 1 for 49ers quarterback Trey Lance, who participated in very limited fashion in the preseason. We won’t knock accomplished head coach Kyle Shanahan too hard for that move, but it does raise an eyebrow. There’s a good chance that Lance could be slightly out of sync with superstar wide receiver Deebo Samuel in this one.

The Bears were among the toughest teams in the NFL to throw against last season, as they allowed the third-fewest yards per game through the air (191.6). Trading away Khalil Mack in the offseason resulted in a downgrade at linebacker, but Chicago was able to put the second-round pick they got in return for Mack to use by selecting safety Jaquan Brisker in the 2022 NFL Draft. Just nine picks earlier, the Bears drafted cornerback Kyler Gordon, who didn’t allow a single touchdown in 18 games with the Washington Huskies.

Both of these rookies should help Chicago’s pass stoppers contain Lance on Sunday, especially in inclement conditions. Meanwhile, Justin Fields will probably still struggle to move the chains for the Bears in Year 2. 

Fields — who averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt in 2021 while producing a 7-10 touchdown/interception ratio — will set up shop behind an offensive line ranked next-to-last in the NFL by Pro Football Focus ahead of training camp. The Bears drafted four offensive linemen this April, but all were late-round picks, including fifth-rounder Braxton Jones, who will be tasked with guarding Fields’ blind side in this one. 

Arik Armstead and Nick Bosa — who helped the Niners to the second-best sacks per game mark (3.0) in the NFL last year — are likely licking their chops ahead of this tilt. Total bettors should jump on the Under before sharps and squares alike pound this number down even further from its original line of 42. 

My best bet: Under 41 (-110 at WynnBET)

49ers vs Bears betting preview

Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Spread analysis

Oddsmakers are hanging a big number on the Niners, but they feel like the right side nonetheless in this contest. 

It remains to be seen if Lance can lead San Fran back to the Super Bowl, but he has certainly been surrounded by enough talent to beat the Bears. In addition to Samuel, the 49ers also boast wide-out Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle (questionable for Sunday) as pass-catching options. Aiyuk started slowly in 2021 but closed to finish 11th among all wide receivers with 9.6 yards per target. Kittle tallied the fourth-most receiving yards among tight ends last season despite suiting up for only 14 games.

Chicago also proved to be soft against the run last year, as it allowed 125.1 rushing yards per game, 24th in the NFL. Elijah Mitchell — who tallied the eighth-most rushing yards in football (963 yards) last season — should help the Niners control the clock and keep their defense rested.

The trends indicate that bettors should back San Francisco, as the 49ers have covered in five straight, and five of their last seven as betting favorites. The Bears have failed to cover in nine of their last 12 overall, including a 1-5 ATS mark as underdogs. 

Over/Under analysis

This contest promises to be more of a feeling-out process for both sides than a track meet. Combine this with a weak Bears offense and some bad weather, and the Under should score.

San Fran appears to boast the better defense, and this unit should have a fairly easy time stopping Fields. The second-year signal-caller has to rely on Darnell Mooney as his primary receiving option following the offseason departure of Allen Robinson.

The 49ers beefed up their secondary by signing cornerback Charvarius Ward this offseason. This unit was already sixth by passing yards allowed per game (206.5) a year ago. 

David Montgomery doesn’t figure to control this game on the ground for Chicago, as he squares off with a San Fran defense that was seventh in rushing yards per game (103.5) last season.

The trends also favor the Under, as the Bears have gone below the total in 20 of their last 27 home games, and 30 of their last 43 outdoor tilts. The Under is 7-1 in the 49ers’ last eight overall, as well as their last eight Week 1 contests.

49ers vs Bears game info

• Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Sunday, September 11, 2022
• Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

49ers vs Bears key injuries

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49ers vs Bears weather

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49ers vs Bears betting trend to know

The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the 49ers and Bears. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Bears.

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