Would the real New England Patriots please stand up?
After having their last two games rescheduled due to COVID-19 outbreaks within the organization, it’s tough to tell if the Patriots’ two-game slide is a product of their circumstances or if New England is really in trouble.
The NFL betting odds have the Patriots as 2.5-point home chalk hosting the San Francisco 49ers (another mystery team) in Week 7. The Niners have been plagued with injuries on both sides of the ball, returning skewed results in recent weeks.
These are our NFL free picks and predictions for 49ers vs. Patriots on October 25.
San Francisco 49ers vs New England Patriots betting preview
Weather
The forecast is calling for temperatures in the high-30s to low-50s with winds blowing up to 7 mph at Gillette Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
49ers: Dee Ford DE (Out), Richard Sherman CB (Out), Kwon Alexander LB (Out), Ben Garland C (Out), Raheem Mostert RB (Out), Nick Bosa DL (Out).
Patriots: Jermaine Eluemunor G (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
Over is 6-1 in 49ers last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Patriots.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Patriots had only two days of practice in the two weeks leading into Week 6’s rotten loss to the Broncos, so there shouldn’t be too much weight put into that result.
New England’s offense was a mess, with the O-line shuffled and reshuffled and Cam Newton blasted for four sacks and two interceptions, completing only 17 of his 25 throws and going just 4 for 13 on third downs.
Defensively, the Patriots were sound. They kept Denver out of the end zone, forced the Broncos to kick six (count them SIX!) field goals, limited them to 4 of 14 on third downs and picked off two passes. That came two weeks removed from a solid effort against Kansas City, in which the Pats gave up only 19 points to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, despite having a backup QB-led offense turn the ball over four times.
San Francisco upended the Los Angeles Rams 24-16 on Sunday night to snap a two-game losing skid, but a sloppy game from the Rams defense had as much to do with that final score as the 49ers offense. Careless mistakes and poor tackling from L.A. allowed a desperate Niners squad to build momentum and hold on despite getting outscored 10-3 in the second half.
Those two contrasting – and somewhat deceptive Week 6 results – had New England opening -3 and drew early money on San Francisco, slimming this spread below the key number of a field goal Monday afternoon. Grab New England -2.5 while you can.
PREDICTION: New England -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under pick
While I think New England’s defense is the difference when it comes to the spread, I’m not backing away from the Over due to this total being relatively low by 2020 standards. The Over/Under opened at 46 and has since dropped to 45.5 after the Patriots’ dud against Denver.
This New England offense is behind schedule in terms of growth. No preseason and limited practice time due to the COVID-19 outbreaks has hurt the progression of this scoring attack, but I expect Cam & Co. to pick up where they left off in Week 3 – hanging 29 points of offense on Las Vegas – with a full week of reps heading into Sunday and the potential return of starting center David Andrews.
I’m still not buying into the 49ers defense, not with gaping holes due to injuries. We’re only three weeks removed from San Francisco allowing 42 points to Miami and its 2020 statistics have been puffed up with two wins over the hapless New York teams. The Niners allowed 113 rushing yards on only 19 carries to the Rams and now face a Patriots rushing attack picking up 5.1 yards per carry on the year.
As for the Niners offense, Jimmy Garoppolo makes his return to Foxborough where he served as backup from 2014 until being dealt to San Francisco in late October 2017. While Bill Belichick may have surplus surveillance on Jimmy G, I do see him building on his 298-yard, three-touchdown performance in Week 6 behind great protection from the offensive line. And with RB Raheem Mostert out, the offense leans heavily toward the pass (having thrown on almost 62 percent of snaps the last three games).
PREDICTION: Over 45.5 (-110)
First Quarter Prop
It would be an understatement to say the Patriots are slow starters in Year 1 under Cam Newton.
New England has scored a grand total of only seven points in the first quarter this season with that lone touchdown coming against Seattle back in Week 2. The Patriots have posted goose eggs in those other four opening frames, sitting tied 0-0 with Miami in the season opener but trailing after 15 minutes in the other four contests.
San Francisco is spritely in opening frames, averaging 6.2 points per first quarter and winning the opening frame in four of their six games so far this season. I could see the Niners on top after 15 minutes before the Patriots pull away.
PREDICTION: San Francisco first quarter moneyline (+113)
49ers vs Patriots betting card
- New England -2.5 (-115)
- Over 45.5 (-110)
- San Francisco first quarter moneyline (+113)
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