There are a lot of uncertainties with the Thursday night game between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks, but with Deebo Samuel out, there are some targets to go around and I don’t think the books have corrected the numbers enough when comparing them to the SF pass-catchers Week 12 totals.
Here are my NFL player prop picks for Thursday Night Football’s battle between the 49ers vs. Seahawks. Don't forget to also check out Jason Logan's 49ers vs. Seahawks TNF picks and predictions as well as Jared Hochman's three favorite Christian McCaffrey TNF spotlight props!
49ers vs Seahawks props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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49ers vs Seahawks TNF props
Aiyuk-en
The Deebo Samuel injury should open up some more looks for Brandon Aiyuk, whose receiving total of 50.5 is seven yards shorter than it was vs. the Dolphins two weeks ago with Samuel in the lineup — a game where he saw nine targets and Brock Purdy threw the ball 37 times.
Aiyuk gets open at an elite rate and his 2.18 yards of separation per target ranks 11th in the NFL and his 118.5 QB rating when targeted is a Top-10 mark.
Brandon Aiyuk excels at getting open (X-axis)... Deebo Samuel makes up a ton of ground with his prodigious YAC ability (not charted on this graph) https://t.co/HNqjtPBgQl
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) December 13, 2022
Purdy has completed 41 of his 58 passes (71%) since taking over and although he has been limited this week at practice with an oblique injury, he played through it last week and is considered probable to start Thursday.
This 49ers passing offense will face a Seattle defense that is regressing to the mean and currently sits in the Bottom 10 in EPA/dropback and success rate vs. the pass since Week 9. That stretch also includes three opposing offenses ranking in the Bottom 7 in pass DVOA (Panthers, Rams, and Cardinals).
Since Purdy has taken over, Aiyuk leads the starting receivers in air yards per catch (6.2), target share (22.2%), and catches of 20-plus yards (three). With a great matchup and yardage total that is shorter than Week 13 with Samuel in the lineup, give me Aiyuk to top his receiving total of 50.5.
Brandon Aiyuk Prop: Over 50.5 receiving yards (-115)
Agree to CMC
Christian McCaffrey took a 38-yard run to the house last week early in the third quarter and never saw another carry in the 49ers’ lopsided win over the Giants. Per Next Gen Stats, CMC hit 20.27 mph, his fastest carry since Week 9 of the 2019 season. The rest is good news and the legs are looking fresh in a game that the running back could dominate.
McCaffrey was limited at practice this week — which is nothing new — and should be good to go with the added rest. He’ll face a defense that allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including a healthy 50 yards receiving per game.
This is a defense against which McCaffrey will be able to show off all his talents and it will be without starting defensive tackle Al Woods, who Pro Football Focus grades as the team’s best D-lineman. The Panthers ran for an insane 223 yards last week vs. the Seahawks while Chuba Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman combined for 174 yards on 39 touches, which was 53% of the team’s total offensive output.
Kyle Shanahan ran the ball 38 times vs. the Seahawks in their Week 2 meeting for 171 yards and going back to last season, Elijah Mitchell had 25 touches vs. the Hawks in Week 13. McCaffrey is averaging 113 total yards per game since coming over to the 49ers, even after factoring in him taking the second half off last week.
CMC is game script-proof, which has me taking the Over on his total yards of 121.5 instead of his straight rushing or receiving yards. If Purdy doesn’t go, this play will still be safe with Josh Johnson under center.
Christian McCaffrey Prop: Over 117.5 total yards (-114)
The Juice is loose
I thought long and hard about the Under on Geno Smith's passing yards for my third play but settled with a Kyle Juszczyk receiving prop that has us buying the dip.
Betano has his receiving yards at 6.5, which is one yard shorter than the rest of the market. The Over 7.5 is still a play here and both numbers have a lot of one-and-done potential for a player who could soak up an extra target or two with Samuel out.
The fan-favorite fullback has caught all five of his Brock Purdy targets since the QB took over and Jusczcyk's three yards per reception over his last five games is in sharp contrast to his 13.9 yards per grab from Weeks 1 through 7.
Over his last five seasons with the 49ers, Juszczyk has averaged 10.6 yards per catch and 16.9 receiving yards per game. He’s also seen his snap share increase every week since McCaffrey joined the team as Shanahan is getting a better feel for using both backs. The fullback's receiving total has closed at 10.5 in six of his last 10 games.
Facing a Seattle team that allows the third-most receiving yards to opposing running backs (49.2) and the sixth-most receptions (5.7), this is a good matchup to target some San Francisco receiving props from the backfield.
Juice has topped this number in four of the last six meetings with the Seahawks and has 128 total receiving yards on just nine catches. His recent output seems to be more of an outlier, which is giving us a solid number on a back who has averaged over 10 yards per grab over his last five seasons.
Kyle Juszczyk Prop: Over 6.5 receiving yards (-110 at Betano)
