This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup features a pair of teams trending in completely opposite directions with their postseason hopes hanging in the balance.
The San Francisco 49ers have won five of six to climb into the sixth spot in the NFC while the Tennessee Titans’ hold on the top spot in the AFC South suddenly looks tenuous after losing three of four.
But are the Titans a live home dog? Find out in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for 49ers vs. Titans on Thursday, December 23.
49ers vs Titans odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Titans opened this matchup getting a field goal at home but the 49ers have seen the early action, moving the lines to San Francisco -3.5. The total hit the board at 45 and has been bet down slightly to 44.5 as of Tuesday night.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
49ers vs Titans predictions
- Prediction: 49ers -3.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 44.5 (-110)
- Best bet: 49ers -3.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Kittle Over 68.5 receiving yards (-115)
Predictions made on 12/21/2021 at 11:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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49ers vs Titans game info
• Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
• Date: Thursday, December 23, 2021
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NFL NETWORK
49ers at Titans betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
49ers: Elijah Mitchell RB (Out), Colton McKivitz OG (Out), Maurice Hurst DT (Out), Azeez Al-Shaair LB (Out), Dre Greenlaw LB (Out), Talanoa Hufanga S (Out).
Titans: Taylor Lewan OT (Out), Derrick Henry RB (Out), Larrell Murchison DE (Out), Derick Robertson LB (Out), David Long Jr. LB (Out), Joe Jones LB (Out), Chris Jones CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The 49ers are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Titans.
49ers vs Titans picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The San Francisco 49ers have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL over the last month or so. They've won five of their last six games, scoring 29.2 points per and now rank second in the NFL in yards per play.
The 49ers obviously rely on their running game, but the play of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo can’t be overlooked. Over his eight games, Jimmy G is completing 69% of his passes for 2,066 yards with 12 touchdowns compared to just four interceptions, plus a 107.4 quarterback rating.
With weapons like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle at Garoppolo’s disposal, this Niners offense is now a problem.
You know whose offense isn’t a problem right now? The Titans.
Tennessee enters this matchup with an offense that looks anemic without Derrick Henry. They've lost three of four with the lone win coming against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Titans are scoring just 14.8 points per game over that span and rank 27th in yards per play over their last three games.
It sounds like wideout A.J. Brown might return for this game, but Julio Jones is hurt again. But it doesn’t matter who is on the field if Ryan Tannehill doesn’t start playing better. The Titans signal-caller ranks 23rd in yards per attempt and he has as many picks as touchdowns (14) this season.
D’Onta Foreman has been fine replacing Henry, but now he faces a San Francisco defense that ranks second in DVOA.
There is just no reason not to back the Niners in this spot. San Francisco is just playing too well and has the edge over Tennessee all over the field. Don’t expect to remember the Titans in this one.
Prediction: 49ers -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
When it comes to the total, the early money has come in on the Under and I would jump on it quickly before the number gets much lower.
Both Tennessee and San Francisco love to run the ball, ranking third and fourth, respectively, when it comes to the percentage of running plays called per game. And both of these defenses play well against the run. The Niners rank second in DVOA against the run while the Titans rank second in opponent rush yards allowed per game.
Additionally, we noted Tannehill and the Titans offense are struggling, and have scored just two touchdowns once in the last four games. Now, Tannehill will have to deal with Nick Bosa, who is leading the NFL with 18 tackles for a loss.
While San Francisco is rolling right now, this is a road game on a short week.
Prediction: Under 44.5 (-110)
Best bets
For starters, the 49ers at -3.5 is one of our best bets. They are playing too well right now to pass up, and the Titans offense looks dreadful without Henry. The Niners have also covered the spread in five of their last six games.
But another reason the 49ers will be successful in this matchup is that the Titans secondary has been eaten alive by opposing wide-outs. Now, George Kittle is obviously not a wideout, but the Niners line up their star tight end all over the field, and he is in a groove with Jimmy G right now.
Kittle has been targeted 33 times over the last three games, hauling in 28 of those passes for 425 yards and three scores. Now, he faces a Titans secondary that ranks dead last in passing yards and receptions allowed to opposing wide receivers.
Kittle should be able to keep cooking against this porous Titans pass defense.
Pick: 49ers -3.5 (-110)
Pick: George Kittle Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
