Aaron Rodgers Odds & TNF Props: Rodgers Lets Loose in Divisional Affair

It’s an AFC East showdown on Thursday Night Football between the New England Patriots and New York Jets at MetLife Stadium.

I’ve dug into the Aaron Rodgers odds to find my favorite NFL picks to target for the four-time MVP in Thursday’s divisional clash.

Aaron Rodgers TNF player prop picks

• Best bet
  Over 211.5 passing yards
  (-113 at FanDuel)
  
  
• SGP Pick
  225+ passing yards
  2+ passing touchdowns
  Over 46.5 1Q passing yards
  (+384 at FanDuel)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Aaron Rodgers TNF prop pick

My best bet
Over 211.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)

My analysis
Sure, Aaron Rodgers hasn’t come close to this total in either of his first two games of the season, but I’m anticipating a home bout on a short week flipping the script for the veteran.

Road dates against the San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans to start the season were never going to be easy. Now, he’s carrying a decreased total through FanDuel, with the number higher across the board at other shops. Additionally, he closed at 228.5 passing yards in Week 1 and 226.5 in Week 2.

This 211.5 total for Week 3 is an overreaction.

The New England Patriots have injuries in the secondary and allowed Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith to throw for a respectable 7.4 yards per attempt and post the third-highest dropback success rate (54.9%) last week. New England also hits the highway for the first time this season to face New York in its home opener.

Additionally, I value the increased role wide receiver Mike Williams played in Week 2. The veteran only hauled in one pass, but he played 64% of the offensive snaps compared to just 18% in the opener.

Williams makes the passing attack more dynamic, and of course, No. 1 wideout Garrett Wilson has been held to just 117 receiving yards to start the year. I’m expecting more from the duo, and more of the same from the rest of the Jets pass-catchers to position Rodgers to clear this decreased total Thursday.

Aaron Rodgers TNF same-game parlay

225+ passing yards

2+ passing touchdowns

Over 46.5 first quarter passing yards

+384 at FanDuel

It’s early, but the New York Jets need Rodgers and the offense to continue improving in the coming weeks to remain a legitimate playoff contender in the AFC. A home date with the Pats is an opportunity to take a sizable first step.

There have been flashes from Gang Green, too, with New York ranking 10th in EPA per play, 11th in EPA per dropback, and ninth in offensive grade per PFF.

Still, Rodgers has only thrown for 6.7 YPA and a 6.8 aDoT, and successfully attacking downfield has been a missing element in the offense.

I’m anticipating more deep shots from Rodgers, in addition to the short turnaround benefiting the Jets passing attack more than the banged up New England stop unit on Thursday Night Football.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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