A playoff berth will be on the line at Lambeau Field when the Detroit Lions take on the Green Bay Packers in the final regular season game of the season.
The Lions need the Los Angeles Rams to beat the Seattle Seahawks to have a shot at making the postseason, while the Packers have a simple task... win, and they’re in.
If the Packers prevail, it will more than likely be because their star quarterback had a big night under center. With that in mind, here are my three favorite Aaron Rodgers NFL player props for January 8.
Be sure to also check out Rohit Ponnaiya's full Lions vs. Packers betting picks, as well as Josh Inglis' SNF player props!
Aaron Rodgers SNF prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Aaron Rodgers SNF props
Rodgers lets it rip
Aaron Rodgers’ passing yards prop is listed at a lofty 249.5 — a number he hasn’t surpassed in a span of seven games. However, the Lions’ defense has been so atrocious this season — especially against the pass — so it’s difficult to see how Rodgers won’t chuck the ball downfield at will.
Despite this conflict, the decision regarding Rodgers’ longest passing completion looks like an easy one.
Rodgers has had five games with at least one completion of 38 or more yards this year, including his 42-yard connection with Allen Lazard against the Miami Dolphins in Week 16. The Cal product surpassed this line when the Packers and Lions met at Ford Field in Week 9, as he found Lazard once again for a 47-yard strike.
The Green Bay signal caller carved up Detroit’s 30th-rated pass defense (249.4 yards allowed per game) when he notched a season-high 291 passing yards in that aforementioned affair. The Lions allow a league-worst Depth of Target of 9.7 yards, so opponents have been unafraid to take this team deep all season long.
Rodgers has taken 74 deep ball shots this year, which is the second-most in the NFL. Whether it’s Lazard or someone else from the Packers’ receiving corps, expect Rodgers to connect on at least one home run ball in this tilt.
Prop: Aaron Rodgers longest completion Over 37.5 yards (-110)
Over is the pick on Rodgers' picks
Rodgers is the two-time reigning NFL MVP winner, but Father Time has clearly caught up to the 39-year-old future Hall of Famer. He’s been caught far too often trying to play “hero ball” this year, and the Lions should capitalize on that.
Rodgers has tossed 11 interceptions this year, which is more than he had in the previous two seasons combined (nine). His worst game in this department came against Detroit, as he threw three backbreaking picks. First-year safety Kerby Joseph caught two of Rodgers’ mistakes, while rookie defensive end Aidan Hutchinson hauled in the other.
The Green Bay QB has thrown a total of 20 interceptable passes to this point, which ranks 21st at the position. Rodgers has also recorded at least one interception in eight games this season. Considering that works out to half of his starts, getting plus value on Rodgers to get picked off is appealing.
Prop: Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 interceptions (+130)
Multiple passing scores are probable
Rodgers has gone four straight games without passing for multiple touchdowns, but that streak should end in Week 18.
He’s reached the two-touchdown plateau in nine of his 16 games this year, which is 56.3% of the time. The implied odds on the Over for this prop are 55.6%, which isn’t a tremendous bargain at first glance. However, Rodgers rates a much better chance to beat this line upon closer examination.
The Lions have allowed 25 passing touchdowns this season, tied for the seventh-worst mark in the NFL. Detroit’s defense has been exceptionally poor in the red zone, where it's allowed 68.3% of all drives to conclude with a touchdown. Only three teams have a worse mark through Week 17.
Rodgers’ bread-and-butter this year has been red zone execution, as he ranks fifth in red zone completion percentage (63%) and eighth in passing attempts inside the enemy 20-yard line (81). This Sunday night tilt should be just another affair in which Rodgers makes the most of his team’s chances on the doorstep.
Prop: Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-125)
