Let's just get this out of the way: the Week 9 schedule's opener is expected by everybody and their dog (and cat, parakeet, mongoose, and whatever other domesticated pet) to be an absolute blowout.
The undefeated Eagles are laying two touchdowns against the lowly Houston Texans. We're all betting Philly and we're all hittings the Overs on TNF player props for the skill position players. The question, however, is "what to put the TNF spotlight on?"
Let's answer in jeopardy form (because why not?): What is... A.J. Brown props?
Philadelphia's No. 1 pass catcher has been one of the league's top wide receivers this year, and he's got a juicy-as-steak matchup and NFL player prop lines that seem questionably low.
So, my free Eagles vs. Texans picks for this week will be about what Brown can do for us... by demolishing Houston's defense.
A.J. Brown TNF prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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A.J. Brown TNF props
Brown beatdown
Simply put, this line seems way too low. Brown went off against the Steelers last week, catching five of eight passes thrown his way for 113 yards and three touchdowns.
In the first half.
Brown finished with six catches for 156 yards, which makes him 5-2 against a total of 67.5 yards this season (and game loss being a 67-yard effort against Dallas' fifth-ranked pass defense). He is also averaging 94.1 receiving yards per game, and he faces a Houston Texans defense that is putrid against No. 1 receiving targets.
Ignoring two statistical anomalies — last week, when Tennessee threw just 10 times for 55 yards (and ran for 314 yards), and Week 3 when Chicago passed 17 times for 82 yards (and ran for 281 yards) — Houston has allowed the opponent's top target to average about 112 ypg, and record at least 95 yards in each contest:
- Michael Pittman Jr. — 121 yards
- Courtland Sutton — 122 yards
- Mike Williams — 120 yards
- Marvin Jones — 104 yards
- Davante Adams — 95 yards
The Philadelphia Eagles have also been coming out of the gates on fire, scoring 20+ first-half points in six of seven games, including 24 in each of their last three contests. Against a pathetic Texans defense on a short week in prime time, you're telling me this team is going to shut down the league's sixth-leading receiver? I don't buy it.
The only threat to this prop is that Brown may not play a full game, as if this gets out of hand the Eagles could have the backups in early into the second half, but as we saw last week: Brown could easily top this mark in the first 30 minutes.
Prop: A.J. Brown Over 67.5 receiving yards (-115)
All about A.J.
I'm also looking at Brown's reception prop, which is currently set at 4.5 with heavy juice, so it will likely settle at 5.5. Both are a bet for me, but with 4.5 still available, it's far more enticing.
In addition to being a receiving yards monster, Brown has caught at least five passes in six of seven games this season and is the 12th-most targeted receiver in the league, getting 9.1 targets per game and at least seven in every contest.
His 60.9% catch rate is well below what you'd expect from a No. 1 wideout, sitting 140th among all receivers in the NFL, but it's a volume play — he gets about 31% of all Philly passing targets and again... the Texans' defense is very, very bad.
In addition to allowing No. 1 receivers to rack up the yards, Texas allows those top targets to catch 38 of 55 targets (69.1%), including at least seven receptions in each game.
The Texans have often tabbed 2022 third-overall pick Derek Stingley Jr. to shadow the opponent's top target (he did so against Sutton in Week 2, Williams in Week 4, and Adams in Week 7) and the results have not been good: He allowed 15 catches on 19 targets for 195 yards (per Pro Football Focus).
All three of those receivers have size to go with speed and skill, and if the 6-foot-1, 226-pound Brown sees Stingley a lot Thursday, I'd expect him to again muscle his way to a number of receptions.
And if he gets the other Texans DBs? Even better.
Prop: A.J. Brown Over 4.5 receptions (-136)
Downtown Brown
I could make an argument for a Brown anytime TD (+116) play here, but with him finding the end zone in just three of seven games this season the safer play is to bet on his longest reception going Over 25.5 yards.
Brown has seven receptions of 26 or more yards this season (including five going 30+), with another three catches of 20-25 yards.
The Texans' defense has also been prone to giving up big plays, allowing seven receptions for 26+ yards and 27 passes of 20+ yards overall in the five games against a legitimate NFL passing attack — and even then they also allowed two 20+ yard passing plays to the Bears.
This team flirts with allowing chunk plays on the regular, and against a receiver who routinely connects on a big catch or two per game, I'll bank on Houston getting torched downfield again by the Eagles' main man on Thursday.
Prop: A.J. Brown longest reception Over 25.5 yards (-110)
