Two of the NFL’s top offenses by yardage will meet at Caesars Superdome on Monday Night Football as the Baltimore Ravens visit the New Orleans Saints.
Alvin Kamara has been integral to the Saints’ offensive success this season, and his contributions will be crucial in this contest once again. Will he put forth another excellent performance against the Ravens, or will he falter under the bright lights?
We've covered the traditional markets in our Ravens vs. Saints picks but here are our three favourite Alvin Kamara NFL picks for Monday, November 7. You can also check out our best MNF prop picks as well.
Alvin Kamara MNF prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Alvin Kamara MNF props
Dalton dinks and dunks with Kamara
The New Orleans Saints have been battling injuries at both the quarterback and the wide receiver positions all season long, and Alvin Kamara has benefitted from that in terms of passing production. The Over on his receiving prop feels like a no-brainer.
Andy Dalton assuming command under center from Jameis Winston hamstrings the New Orleans offense to some extent, particularly in the deep passing game. Head coach Dennis Allen has opted to compact the playbook to a degree, and that has resulted in Kamara getting a slew of targets.
The Tennessee product has averaged 7.5 targets per game in 2022, second only to the Chargers’ Austin Ekeler in that department (8.7) this season. In his last three games, Kamara has been targeted a total of 28 times, and he hauled in 22 passes for 177 yards.
He’s exceeded 36 receiving yards in three of his last four performances, and the Baltimore Ravens’ defense should offer little resistance in this area on Monday night.
Baltimore has allowed 6.25 receptions per game to running backs, the sixth-worst mark in the NFL, and 45.6 receiving yards per game, seventh worst in the league. With Michael Thomas sidelined and Jarvis Landry questionable, Dalton’s quality receiving options are dwindling.
Prop: Over 36.5 receiving yards (-114)
Ravens keep Kamara contained on the ground
Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at a fairly conservative 61.5 yards, but NFL odds appear to be onto something. Prop bettors should be pessimistic that Kamara will go off on the ground on Monday night.
While it’s true that Kamara has gone over 60 rushing yards in four of his last five games, he’s exceeded that plateau by a total of only three yards in two of those contests. He’s also faced some suspect defenses in that span, and the Ravens will be the best one he’s taken on in 2022 based on rush yards allowed per game to running backs (80.9).
Kamara has averaged 15.8 carries through six games, but he could go south of that number if Lamar Jackson & Co. are at their best in this one. Baltimore is fifth in points per game (26), so the Saints may not be able to take their foot off the gas pedal at any point.
Prop: Under 61.5 rushing yards (-115)
Kamara returns to the end zone
Fantasy football players had to be peeved that it took until Week 8 for Kamara to reach the end zone, but their patience was rewarded as he tallied three touchdowns against the Raiders last Sunday. That performance will be nearly impossible to top, but he’s listed at a solid price to score once more here.
Taysom Hill has “vultured” some touchdowns from Kamara this year, scoring five before the Saints’ lead rusher even notched his first of the campaign, but opposing teams will key in on Hill over time, and the gadget plays will become less effective. That trend may have begun last week.
The Ravens are among the more generous defenses in football based on points allowed per game (22.9, T-21st) and are 23rd in red zone touchdowns allowed by percentage (61.3%). His slow start to 2022 aside, Kamara has always had a nose for the end zone, as he’s scored 70 touchdowns over 79 games in his career.
Prop: Anytime touchdown (-105)
