With just four games this weekend and everything still on the line, the NFL anytime touchdown prop market isn’t as deep as usual, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some gems to be found.
The Chiefs’ run game could get plenty of work when opening up the Divisional Round, Derrick Henry won’t be full after one score, and my feelings about the Washington passing game have changed from last week.
These are my best touchdown bets and NFL picks of the Divisional Round.
Divisional Round touchdown props
- Hunt anytime TD (+180 at BetRivers)
- Henry 2+ TDs (+300 at BetMGM)
- Dyami Brown (+350 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Divisional Round TD props
Kareem Hunt anytime TD (+180 at BetRivers)
The Kansas City Chiefs are a sizable favorite on Saturday afternoon and the feel-like temperatures are not going to be kind to anyone. This is a KC offense that is healthy and is getting the indoor Houston Texans who were in this same spot a season ago and lost 34-10 to the Ravens as a 10-point road dog in the Divisional Round.
The shortest TD price for a Chiefs running back is Isiah Pacheco at +130, but Kareem Hunt might be the better choice here at +180 with a better red-zone role.
Since coming back from a serious leg injury, Pacheco has zero rushing TDs and has just three total runs inside the 20-yard line — zero coming inside the 5. That means just 6% of his carries were in the red zone.
That’s in contrast to Hunt who had four fewer carries (45) but led the team in RZ runs/targets with nine — 20% RZ share.
This is a pass-first offense, but getting a red-zone running back in a playoff game as an 8.5 favorite with feel-like temperatures in the single digits for +180 is an easy buy for me. I’d buy Hunt to +150.
Derrick Henry 2+ TDs (+300 at BetMGM)
I have not bet a 2+ TD player all year but that’s changing this week.
Derrick Henry is just on another level. The Baltimore Ravens ran the ball 15 straight times vs. the Steelers and Pittsburgh had no answer. Now Henry, who had 199 rushing yards and two scores vs. the Buffalo Bills early this year, will get to run all over this smaller Buffalo defense.
The Bills play a lot of nickel coverage which is why Taron Johnson’s role on this defense is significant as the nickel corner. It’s a bad matchup for this run defense that will face 2,000 pounds of blocking from the O-line and Patrick Ricard, as well as the heavy sets Baltimore will run this Sunday.
Versus the Steelers, Baltimore ran 2-TE sets at 43% and 6 offensive-linemen sets at 22%. They also ran double RBs — mostly Ricard and Henry — at 10%.
The Ravens are not disguising what they are doing on offense and just winning. Over the last four games, Henry has averaged 24 carries for 158 rushing yards and 1.3 TDs per game. The last time he was held to Under 150 total yards was December 15.
Lamar Jackson is the only real threat to vulture TDs from Henry in a potential shootout, but the QB has not needed to run much in the RZ with just six red-zone rushes in as many games. Shop around as this is as short as +160 in places and is a buy to +250.
Dyami Brown anytime TD (+350 at FanDuel)
The Washington Commanders are likely the best team to target for a receiving touchdown this week as a huge underdog in an indoor game with a running game that has no legs. I was on Olamide Zacchaeus last week for a TD at +300ish, but he was a non-factor in the passing game — especially with an average depth of target of -1.5 yards!
The real target for Saturday is Dyami Brown. Yes, he scored a TD last week and it might seem like recency bias, but he was running much longer routes than Zaccheaus, finished with a 10-yard TD, and had two RZ targets — Terry McLaurin had three RZ targets, Zach Ertz had one, and Zaccheaus also had one.
Although most probable, McLaurin for a TD at +100 to +110 is a pass for me. His buy point is +130 or higher. Brown at +350 (FanDuel and a buy to +285) is easier to swallow. McLaurin is in the SGP, but Brown has plenty of standalone TD value at +350. The game script, no Washington run game, and an advantage over Zaccheaus due to aDOT are all key reasons.
Divisional Round anytime touchdown parlay
Xavier Worthy anytime TD
Terry McLaurin anytime TD
A.J. Brown anytime TD
Derrick Henry anytime TD
How about a Divisional Round touchdown parlay touching each game?
The hardest leg is off the top in Xavier Worthy but he looks to have taken over that Rashee Rive role and had TDs in Weeks 16 and 17.
Terry McLaurin, as stated above, is the most probable scorer for the Commanders and the game script and indoor setting will help him continue to have a huge role near the goal line.
After working on his Inner Excellence in a one-catch game, the squeaky wheel and A.J. Brown will get more looks vs. the Rams.
Finally, Henry will cap off the +2,280 parlay with a multi-TD performance in the finale. These are fun parlays and this one will get 0.25 units from me.
Not intended for use in MA.
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