It’s an unconventional Week 17 in the NFL with games all over the place, but this week’s touchdown cheat guide is focused on three solid TD plays across the Saturday and Sunday slate.
My NFL picks are looking at a Spears not named Britney, a Gus not named Johnson, and a Hall not named Carnegie.
Week 17 touchdown props
- Spears anytime TD (+165 at DraftKings)
- Edwards anytime TD (+138 at bet365)
- Hall anytime TD (+140 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 17 TD props
TD Prop bet #1: Tyjae Spears anytime TD
Best odds: +165 at DraftKings
Tony Pollard is +110 to score a TD this weekend but Tyjae Spears at +165 is the better option. The latter had all the red-zone carries last week vs. the Indianapolis Colts and scored twice from the 11- and 2-yard line. He also had two more carries than Pollard and a bigger role in the passing game getting three grabs and 39 yards compared to Pollard’s five yards on two receptions.
It’s a plus-plus matchup for the Tennessee Titans Sunday as well as they’ll be taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars who allow the fourth-most points per game at 26.4 per match. Jacksonville could also be missing three starters on the O-line so the Titans could be playing with the leading and leaning on the running game right out of the gate. Some potential rain only helps Spears.
I’d play Spears to +130 but with his recent success, output, and now red-zone role, I like him at any number better than Pollard.
TD Prop bet #2: Gus Edwards anytime TD
Best odds: +138 at bet365
The Los Angeles Chargers have a lot of moving pieces in their backfield for Saturday’s game vs. the New England Patriots but Gus Edwards (limited) for a TD at +138 (a buy to +110) is a very good TD look for the early Saturday game.
J.K. Dobbins’ practice window has been activated and he has been limited at practice, but I think even if he does go, he will cede the goal-line work to Edwards who is coming off his best rushing game last week with two TDs and 68 rushing yards. The bigger back has four scores over his last five games and might be even more probable to score Saturday with Dobbins working between the 20s and helping this offense move the ball while Edwards punches it in from in close.
The matchup is great for the 4-point favorites who face the Patriots’ bottom-10 rush defense per EPA.
One way to approach this is to wait. If Dobbins is back, Edwards’ TD price could grow to +150, but I think at +130 or better, it’s still safe to buy early. If Dobbins is out, this TD could be -130. The early purchase is worth the risk.
TD Prop bet #3: Breece Hall anytime TD
Best odds: +140 at bet365
There could be some heavy rain in Orchard Park as the Buffalo Bills host the New York Jets as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. That could create more work on the ground than normal and dating back to Week 9, the Bills’ defense has allowed 20+ points in each game except for the snow game vs. the 49ers who fumbled on the goal line.
In all, the Bills’ defense has not been great down the stretch which is why Josh Allen’s play has him locked in as the league’s MVP. Since Week 9, the Buffalo defense has ranked 26th in EPA thanks to the second-worst EPA/dropback in football. The Jets can move the ball Sunday and Breece Hall is going to have plenty of chances with the potential weather possibly aiding his workload.
The Jets’ No.1 back is paying a surprising +140 for a TD. Hall is coming off a 19-touch loss in Week 16 and is past his knee injury. He is also getting all the goal-line work. The Bills might need more Allen magic to keep that No.2 seed in the AFC, but New York can score this week vs. that defense.
Not intended for use in MA.
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