It’s an unconventional Week 17 in the NFL with games all over the place, but this week’s NFL touchdown props cheat guide is focused on three solid plays across the Saturday and Sunday slate.
My NFL picks are looking at a Spears not named Britney, a Hassan not named Redick, and a Hall not named Carnegie.
Week 17 touchdown props
- Spears anytime TD (+165 at DraftKings)
- Haskins anytime TD (+650 at BetRivers)
- Hall anytime TD (+140 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 17 TD props
TD Prop bet #1: Tyjae Spears anytime TD
Best odds: +165 at DraftKings
Tony Pollard is +110 to score a TD this weekend but Tyjae Spears at +165 is the better option. The latter had all the red-zone carries last week vs. the Indianapolis Colts and scored twice from the 11- and 2-yard line. He also had two more carries than Pollard and a bigger role in the passing game getting three grabs and 39 yards compared to Pollard’s five yards on two receptions.
It’s a plus-plus matchup for the Tennessee Titans Sunday as well as they’ll be taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars who allow the fourth-most points per game at 26.4 per match. Jacksonville could also be missing three starters on the O-line so the Titans could be playing with the leading and leaning on the running game right out of the gate. Some potential rain only helps Spears.
I’d play Spears to +130 but with his recent success, output, and now red-zone role, I like him at any number better than Pollard.
TD Prop bet #2: Hassan Haskins anytime TD
Best odds: +650 at BetRivers
The Los Angeles Chargers have many moving pieces in their backfield for Saturday’s game vs. the New England Patriots as Gus Edwards has been ruled out and J.K. Dobbins is questionable.
Dobbins has been limited at practice, and even if he does go, he will cede the goal-line work. That's where Hassan Haskins comes in. He could be the Edwards goal-line back Saturday in a good matchup. He could have a role even if Dobbins plays as Kimani Vidal has not impressed but if Dobbins is out, the role and this price are great.
The matchup is great for the 4-point favorites who face the Patriots’ Bottom-10 rush defense per EPA.
Some books have this as short as +450 and I'd buy this to +500. Shop around as some books have been slow to move with the Edwards news and Dobbins sitting would also drop the odds. With the variance, I'm putting a half-unit on it.
TD Prop bet #3: Breece Hall anytime TD
Best odds: +140 at bet365
There could be some heavy rain in Orchard Park as the Buffalo Bills host the New York Jets as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. That could create more work on the ground than normal and dating back to Week 9, the Bills’ defense has allowed 20+ points in each game except for the snow game vs. the 49ers who fumbled on the goal line.
In all, the Bills’ defense has not been great down the stretch which is why Josh Allen’s play has him locked in as the league’s MVP. Since Week 9, the Buffalo defense has ranked 26th in EPA thanks to the second-worst EPA/dropback in football. The Jets can move the ball Sunday and Breece Hall is going to have plenty of chances with the potential weather possibly aiding his workload.
The Jets’ No.1 back is paying a surprising +140 for a TD. Hall is coming off a 19-touch loss in Week 16 and is past his knee injury. He is also getting all the goal-line work. The Bills might need more Allen magic to keep that No.2 seed in the AFC, but New York can score this week vs. that defense.
Not intended for use in MA.
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