This is not an easy week for TD betting as usage and roles could be all over the place. That has me taking some bigger swings and taking shots at games that have more predictive game scripts.
Everyone scores against the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers backfield is mispriced. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be coasting to an easy win, and Sean Payton might have his backfield finally set — it only took 17 weeks.
These are my three favorite anytime touchdown props and NFL picks for Week 18.
Week 18 touchdown props
- McLaughlin anytime TD (+245 at Caesars)
- Tucker anytime TD (+650 at bet365)
- Warren anytime TD (+230 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 18 TD props
TD Prop bet #1: Jaleel McLaughlin anytime TD anytime TD
Best odds: +245 at Caesars
Week 18 is a landmine in terms of prop betting as usage is tough to predict. Add that to Sean Payton's typically unpredictable backfield and betting on Denver Broncos running backs to score might seem like a tricky angle to back, but Jaleel McLaughlin was the best back last week vs. the Bengals, where he carried 10 times for 69 rushing yards and added two targets. He also got one of the two red-zone carries.
The No.1 back should have a big role in a must-win game on Sunday vs. the Kansas City Chiefs, who will be playing with their backups, making the Broncos a massive 10.5-point home favorite.
I’d take a McLaughlin TD for +160 or better, so the +235 is a great buy. Bo Nix is not a TD vulture (he should be) and I'm taking one more ride on this Denver backfield, which I hope is settled after Week 17.
TD Prop bet #2: Sean Tucker anytime TD
Best odds: +650 at bet365
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are worth betting on as they need to win to get into the postseason. It should be an easy game as a 13.5-point favorite, which could leave some mop-up duties for No. 3 RB Sean Tucker, who is a tasty +650 to score.
Bucky Irving has become the No.1 back for this explosive offense but Tucker actually had more carries than No.2 Rachaad White in last week's blow-out win vs. the Panthers. Tucker had eight carries for 39 yards and got most of his work on the last close-out drive.
With the playoffs in reach, Tucker might have a bigger second-half role on Sunday and the matchup couldn’t be better vs. the Saints, who just allowed 25 points to the Raiders. Tucker obliterated the Saints back in Week 5 with 136 rushing yards and two TDs.
I’m going a full unit on Tucker here at +650 (buy to +400) while also dropping a quarter-unit on his last TD at +3,300 at bet365.
TD Prop bet #3: Jaylen Warren anytime TD
Best odds: +230 at FanDuel
I'm pulling for Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday, but they are still a defense that bettors should look to fade for opposing TDs. Najee Harris is +110 for a TD this week but Jaylen Warren is the much better buy at +230.
Warren had all three of the RB red-zone carries last week vs. a good KC defense and although he didn’t score, that usage alone should put him at +135ish for a TD vs. this Bengals defense. The pair have nearly identical running numbers over the last two weeks and this is more of a 50/50 split, which is not priced in.
Everybody scores vs. the Bengals and with the red-zone and pass-catching role, Warren is my favorite TD bet of the Saturday slate.
Not intended for use in MA.
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