It’s Wild Card Weekend, and with everything on the line and no tomorrow for half of the 12 teams in action, the touchdown market isn’t the same. Teams will be leaning on their stars even more, especially those coming off meaningless Week 18 tilts, but there are still three touchdown props I like this weekend.
These are my three favorite NFL picks in the anytime touchdown market for Wild Card Weekend.
Wild Card Weekend touchdown props
- Dalton Kincaid anytime TD (+300 at FanDuel)
- Zach Ertz anytime TD (+255 at DraftKings)
- Aaron Jones anytime TD (+130 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Wild Card Weekend TD props
TD Prop bet #1: Dalton Kincaid anytime TD
Best odds: +300 at FanDuel
The Buffalo Bills enter this weekend as an 8.5-point home favorite vs. the Denver Broncos, who had given up 64 points in Weeks 16 and 17 before shutting down the K.C. backups last week.
There might be a little value in a Josh Allen TD at -120, but as of late Thursday afternoon there are not many -120s out there, and some books are as short as -165.
My best TD angle here is Buffalo passing short and to its tight ends and running backs. Patrick Surtain will likely see very little action his way, and Dalton Kincaid will benefit the most from getting Week 18 off. He is currently trading at +300 at FanDuel for a TD, which might be the best price for any member of the Buffalo offense, especially with some books as short as +210 for the Kincaid score.
After returning to the lineup in Week 15, the second-year TE saw his snap share around 50%, which should increase in Sunday’s playoff game at home with good passing conditions following the rest. Before the injury, he was playing 80% of the snaps and running more routes.
His market is low as he hasn’t produced much of late, but he will play a big role Sunday vs. the Denver defense that allowed Mike Gesicki to go for 10 catches and 86 two weeks ago on 12 targets.
TD Prop bet #2: Zach Ertz anytime TD
Best odds: +255 at DraftKings
Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders passing game have one of the best matchups this weekend in a game with a 50-point total.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary is absolutely gutted. Starting corner Jamel Dean and starting safety Mike Edwards are questionable, as is starting nickel corner Tykee Smith. That’s already on top of the injury to corner Jordan Whitehead, who has been ruled out.
The Bucs have not had to face many solid offenses, and the ones they have faced have moved the ball vs. them. That has me targeting the Washington passing game for a TD, and with Terry McLaurin too short at +115ish, I’m looking at a player with six red-zone targets over the last two games and six TDs over his last seven games.
Zach Ertz has been one of the most important pieces of this offense which has struggled to run the ball of late and lacks big names outside of McLaurin at receiver. Ertz is +255 at DraftKings to score his fourth TD in three games. It’s a similar price for Olamide Zaccheaus, who was also an option but doesn’t have as prevalent a role in the red zone as Ertz, whose six RZ targets since Week 17 account for 50% of his targets.
This game is going to be a shootout. Ertz has been held out of the end zone in just two of his last seven games.
TD Prop bet #3: Aaron Jones anytime TD
Best odds: +130 at FanDuel
Very few No. 1 running backs can be had for this price this weekend, and after Sam Darnold’s red-zone display last week (2-for-11 inside the 20), the Minnesota Vikings may be a little more likely to run the ball in close on Monday night.
The Los Angeles Rams defense is legit, though. I'm not ignoring that. Matthew Stafford threw one passing TD over his last three games, and the Rams won each one. However, it’s still a 48-point total that might not even be played in L.A. because of the terrible fires in the state of California.
I’d buy Aaron Jones at even money or better as he will get opportunities, and this price was 50 points shorter last week vs. Detroit and 60 points shorter in Week 17 vs. the Packers.
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