The Philadelphia Eagles head into Sunday's matchup against the Los Angeles Rams with the third-shortest Super Bowl odds.
To live up to the hype, Philadelphia will need its star receiver to shine, but Los Angeles could lean on a game-changing pass catcher of its own to pull off the upset.
My Rams vs. Eagles anytime touchdown prop picks highlight how both will find the end zone. Read more in my NFL picks for Sunday, January 19.
Rams anytime touchdown pick
Puka Nacua anytime touchdown
+140 at Caesars
Scoring on the Philadelphia Eagles' defense is a near-impossible task, as Philly allowed the fewest points per game in the NFC this season (17.8). The most likely player on the Los Angeles Rams to find paydirt is running back Kyren Williams, who led the team with 16 scores in the regular season.
However, his -150 odds to score aren’t a great value, especially when you consider the Eagles’ defense is No. 2 in the NFL in EPA per rush and surrendered the second-fewest rushing TDs in the regular season (9).
Instead, the best player to target is Puka Nacua. If the Rams are going to win this game, they’ll need Matthew Stafford to be at his best, and he’s at his best when throwing to his No. 1 WR.
Stafford has a 108.3 QB rating when targeting the second-year star, and Philadelphia is also slightly more susceptible against the pass. The Eagles allowed 22 passing touchdowns during the regular season.
Even in a season where he’s dealt with injuries, Nacua has established himself as one of the league’s best playmakers. He leads the league in yards per route run (3.38) by a wide margin and can create after the catch with the fourth-most forced missed tackles among wide receivers (21).
Philly also had trouble slowing Nacua down when the two teams clashed in Week 11, a 37-20 win for the Rams. The former fifth-round pick out of BYU had nine receptions for 117 yards on 13 targets and was a huge reason Los Angeles prevailed.
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Eagles anytime touchdown pick
A.J. Brown anytime touchdown
+124 at Caesars
After spending more time reading than catching passes in the Wild Card round, A.J. Brown is poised for a bounce-back game against the Rams.
For as impressive as L.A.’s young defense was last week against the Vikings, it’s taken its lumps this season with the vast majority of its front seven being made up of rookies and second-year players.
That should have this Eagles offense rearing to expose a Rams defensive unit that ranks 28th in EPA per dropback and allowed the fifth-most touchdown passes during the regular season (29).
While Jalen Hurts hasn’t been at his best as a passer this season, Brown has still been able to thrive. He closed out the regular season with a touchdown in three straight games and is third in the NFL in yards per route run (2.83).
Brown has also proven capable of scoring in several different ways, with his skill set allowing him to win 50/50 balls or make plays with the ball in his hands. He sits 10th in the NFL in contested catches (16) and ninth among receivers in forced missed tackles (17).
The Rams simply don’t have a cornerback capable of slowing him down, with Darious Williams and Ahkello Witherspoon on the outside and Quentin Lake at nickel.
The safeties haven’t been very good for Chris Shula’s defense either. Kamren Curl and rookie Kamren Kinchens have combined to allow 10 touchdowns this season and both are giving up a QB rating above 106.0 when targeted. That means Brown could put pressure on them over the top.
As long as Kellen Moore gives Brown the opportunities with his play calling, the star receiver should find the end zone.
Not intended for use in MA.
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