The final game of the NFL regular season looks like it'll be a barnburner. The Minnesota Vikings will host the Detroit Lions, and the NFC's No. 1 seed is in the balance.
A lofty 56-point total hangs on the oddsboard, so bettors making Vikings vs. Lions anytime touchdown picks have plenty of room to get creative. My NFL picks will highlight a pair of pass-catchers offering solid value to break the plane in Week 18.
Vikings anytime touchdown pick
Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown
-120 at bet365
Justin Jefferson is a volume monster for the Minnesota Vikings, so I don't mind the juice on his anytime TD prop this week. He's still a better bet in my eyes than RB1 Aaron Jones at -138, who is listed as questionable to suit up. Backup RB Cam Akers is already juiced down to -120, same as Jefferson, so bettors can't get cute.
Jefferson has seen double-digit targets in three straight weeks, bringing in 25 total passes for 209 yards and three scores. He has five total touchdowns across his last four weeks of play.
The LSU product has beaten the Detroit Lions in the end zone in three consecutive meetings. Jefferson burned them for 81 yards and a score on eight receptions back in Week 6, which was actually his least-productive game against them in that sample. He went for 192 yards and a TD on 12 grabs in Week 18 of last season and 141 yards and a score on six receptions in Week 16.
The Lions are second last in the NFL in targets allowed to wide-outs per game (14.8) and dead last in yardage allowed (190 yards per game).
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Lions anytime touchdown pick
Sam LaPorta anytime touchdown
+175 at bet365
Sam LaPorta has seen an uptick in usage for the Lions during the second half of the season. He represents great value on the Detroit side of things to visit the end zone at this price.
LaPorta has seen no fewer than six passes thrown his way in seven straight games. He's hauled in five of his seven touchdown passes this year in that span.
The Iowa product has 17 receptions in his last three games, second on the team to only Amon-Ra St. Brown, who had a ridiculous 14 grabs in Week 15.
The LaPorta anytime TD prop is available at a much better price than St. Brown's (-120). Jahmyr Gibbs' anytime TD is virtually unplayable at -334.
The Vikings have allowed only three touchdowns to tight ends all year but are middle-of-the-road when it comes to receptions and yardage allowed.
They were burned earlier this year by the Cardinals' Trey McBride (12 receptions, 96 yards), and over the last two weeks, they've surrendered 53 receiving yards to the Packers' Tucker Kraft and 50 yards to Seahawks second-stringer Noah Fant.
Not intended for use in MA.
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