The Arizona Cardinals’ Week 1 odds tell you everything you need to know about this team in 2023.
Arizona is a 6-point underdog at Washington in the season opener, facing a team that I have ranked 30th in my NFL power ratings. Yikes.
Franchise quarterback Kyler Murray is going to be sidelined for a while — like maybe until next season — as he recovers from an ACL injury and new head coach Jonathan Gannon inherits a roster void of star power after dealing away WR DeAndre Hopkins this offseason.
Even in a down year for the once-mighty NFC West, Arizona is expected to sink to the bottom of the NFL toilet (I have them 32nd). NFL futures have the Cardinals’ win total set at 4.5 with the Under shaded heavily and NFL odds have the team set as an underdog in all 17 games in 2023.
Now you see why Arizona is catching six points at D.C. in Week 1.
Can any betting value blossom in the desert heat or are we in for a catastrophic season from the Cardinals? Find out in my 2023 Arizona Cardinals NFL betting preview below.
Arizona Cardinals futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +20,000 | +18,000 | +20,000 |
| Win conference | +10,000 | +8,500 | +10,000 |
| Win division | +2,500 | +2,700 | +2,700 |
| Make playoffs | +1,100 | +980 | +1,000 |
| O4.5 wins | +100 | -102 | +110 |
| U4.5 wins | -120 | -120 | -130 |
Best futures bet: Under 4.5 wins (-120)
The Cardinals cleaned house this offseason, firing coach Kliff Kingsbury along with GM Steve Keim stepping down. On the heels of that, an NFLPA poll published by The Athletic named Arizona the second-worst franchise to play for among pros.
This team is not just beginning a rebuild but stripping the culture of the Cardinals down to the studs. Those blueprints might not include Kyler Murray either, as he’s expected to miss significant time after an ACL injury last December. Rumblings among insiders say we may never see Murray in an Arizona jersey again.
That means the Cardinals are looking for a new face of the franchise and possibly turning on the tank in 2023 to score the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. The look-ahead lines would say as much, with Arizona an underdog in every game and getting an average of more than six points from bookies per outing.
Since 1985, 6-point underdogs have won at a 31% rate which means math says Arizona can win five games in 2023. However, with every loss this team takes along the way, the next week’s spreads will balloon and that win probability will get slimmer and slimmer.
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Arizona Cardinals betting overview
What will win bets: Defense
Don’t snicker.
I’m not saying the Cardinals’ defense is anything to celebrate, but if Arizona is going to make good on all these bonus points from the bookmakers, Rich Gannon’s defense will play a role.
The Cardinals are swapping out the high-risk, blitz-happy schemes of former coordinator Vance Joseph and pivoting to a more passive approach, with Gannon’s schemes from Philadelphia not bringing extra bodies and keeping everything in front of it.
The locker room lost its defensive leader with J.J. Watt retiring and Zach Allen’s departure in free agency pulls plenty of teeth from this pass rush. The Cardinals have some solid linebackers and Budda Baker at safety but overall, this defense is very young with “kiddie pool” roster depth.
Just limiting the number of home run plays and making opponents slow down and chip away at Arizona’s stop unit could be enough to kill some clock and keep foes from running away on the scoreboard. Last season, Arizona ranked second last in points per play allowed (0.418) and any improvement on that is a step in the right direction.
What will lose bets: Offense
Let’s start at quarterback, which could be enough to sour you on Arizona — no matter how big the spread.
An already shaky situation under center is "Gary Busey" levels of unbalanced after the Cardinals brought in QB Josh Dobbs just before the start of the season, which gave the team the option to cut Colt McCoy — which they did. Dobbs knows new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing’s system from his time in Cleveland.
This move doesn’t set Arizona up any better at the position considering it takes on Washington, Dallas, and San Francisco — all Top 5 defenses — in the first four weeks.
Around the quarterback position is an OK group of pass catchers with Hollywood Brown, Rondale Moore, and tight end Zach Ertz along with a rushing attack featuring James Conner, who declined in 2022 after a monster 18-touchdown campaign in 2021.
All of this is working behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league, with the Cardinals' protection ranked 31st in many preseason polls. The O-line returns plenty of bodies from 2022, but when that unit ranked 27th in adjusted line yards and allowed 46 sacks, do you really want them back?
Arizona Cardinals 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @  Washington Commanders |
+6 |
| 2 | vs  New York Giants |
+4.5 |
| 3 | vs  Dallas Cowboys |
+7 |
| 4 | @  San Francisco 49ers |
+10.5 |
| 5 | vs  Cincinnati Bengals |
+7.5 |
| 6 | @  Los Angeles Rams |
+4 |
| 7 | @  Seattle Seahawks |
+7.5 |
| 8 | vs  Baltimore Ravens |
+6.5 |
| 9 | @  Cleveland Browns |
+7 |
| 10 | vs  Atlanta Falcons |
+2.5 |
| 11 | @  Houston Texans |
+2.5 |
| 12 | vs Los Angeles Rams |
+2 |
| 13 | @  Pittsburgh Steelers |
+6.5 |
| 14 | BYE | |
| 15 | vs San Francisco 49ers |
+6.5 |
| 16 | @  Chicago Bears |
+4.5 |
| 17 | @  Philadelphia Eagles |
+11 |
| 18 | vs Seattle Seahawks |
+4.5 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings.
As hinted at numerous times, the betting markets are treating the Cardinals much like my kids treat the thought of going back to school. Not well.
The win total is the lowest in the land by as many as two victories and Arizona earns the booby prize as the only NFL team not only pegged as an underdog in every game but not even catching a sympathy pick’em from the oddsmakers.
Not surprisingly, my NFL power ratings place the Cardinals at the bottom of the barrel, ranked 32nd (13.23/100). That rating isn’t just bringing up the rear but sits a good number of ticks back of Tampa Bay at 31st (20.59/100). This could be a historically bad team even before the thought of tanking throws gas on this dumpster fire.
Arizona’s calendar ranks 12th in strength of schedule and does throw curveballs at the Cardinals, especially with a late-season bye in Week 14 providing little respite from what should be a rotten run up to that point. Even if Murray does make a miracle return, it might not be worth it.
The 6-point spread at Washington in Week 1 is one of 11 games in which Arizona is getting six or more points, with five of those spreads on the other side of a touchdown (+7.5 or higher). That includes a +11.5 line at Philadelphia in Week 17 — tied for the second-biggest look-ahead line in 2023.
As for totals, the Cardinals have an average Over/Under just shy of 41 points with seven of those totals below the 40-point bar. Sub-40 totals have stayed below those modest numbers at a 56% clip over the past three seasons.
Arizona Cardinals schedule spot bet
Week 7: @ Seahawks
A road-heavy October will test this team, capped off by a divisional trip to Seattle in Week 7.
This will be the Cardinals’ second straight roadie after playing at L.A. in Week 6 and their third road stop in four weeks after visiting San Francisco in Week 4 and hosting Cincinnati in Week 5.
This early spread has Arizona catching +7.5 points as a pup in Lumen Field, the fourth spread of a touchdown or more in a six-game stretch. Needless to say, this line could be even higher once we get a true taste of how bad the Cards will be.
My power ratings pump out a forecasted spread just shy of Arizona +12 and it could flirt with two touchdowns given that schedule spot working against the Cardinals in Week 7.
Star power: Marquise Brown props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| OPOY | +15,000 | +20,000 | OTB |
| Receiving yards leader | +10,000 | OTB | OTB |
| Receiving TD leader | +6,000 | OTB | +10,000 |
| Receptions leader | +8,000 | +6,000 | OTB |
| O4.5 rec TD | +110 | OTB | +110 |
| U4.5 rec TD | -130 | OTB | -140 |
| Receiving yards total | 800.5 | OTB | 875.5 |
| Reception total | 70.5 | OTB | 70.5 |
Best prop: Over 70.5 receptions (-110)
Hollywood Brown gets bumped to No. 1 status with the departure of DeAndre Hopkins and when Nuk was suspended to start the 2022 season, Brown played like a top-tier WR. He drew a massive share of targets and stacked 417 yards on 38 receptions in the first five games.
Mid-season injuries limited Brown to 709 yards on 67 receptions for the season but showed just how good he could be.
Of course, he doesn’t have Kyler Murray throwing the ball and this offense will have more balance under OC Drew Petzing than the 62% pass rate under Kingsbury, but with the Cardinals playing from behind every week, Arizona will have no choice but to put the ball in the air.
Player projections all sit north of 70.5 grabs from Hollywood, with a consensus of 75.5 receptions. The ceiling could be higher given Hopkins’ void and Zach Ertz’s health concerns and possible trade bait.
Arizona Cardinals betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
Arizona is projected to have the worst season in 2023 and that likely means plenty of negative game script and garbage time yards, but with Josh Dobbs likely under center for the start of the season and beyond, the running game will not be abandoned.
James Conner will have the majority of carries in this backfield and has a season-long rushing total of just 700.5 yards at FanDuel. With Dobbs the likely QB1, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Conner get some more unconventional carries vs. soft defenses in a negative game script.
The passing game will be brutal and almost every projection has the RB going Over this number which at 14 games, would need just 50 rushing yards per game to cash. THE BLITZ projects 905 rushing yards, Mike Clay is at 862, RotoWire is at 831, Fantasy Pros is at 919, and Yahoo is at 782 yards.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
This team is built to lose. This is a rebuild on steroids and the only thing to like about the 2023 Arizona Cardinals is that they’ll be extremely well positioned in the 2024 NFL Draft. This is easily the worst roster in the NFL, with the worst head coach/starting QB pairing, and we shouldn’t be surprised if they continue to unload talent as the season progresses.
So how do you fade that? Sure, you can take the Under on their 3.5 season win total, but I’ll take it a few steps further. I like the +290 value on fading their alt win total of 2.5 wins, but I think we can raise the stakes even more. DraftKings has odds for each team going winless and the Cardinals are worth a shot at +1,600.
Last year’s team closed out the year going 1-9 in their final 10 games. Expect this pattern to continue with an even worse roster and management being all-in on tanking.
Arizona Cardinals trend to know
The Cardinals have been gracious hosts to their NFC West brethren the past few seasons, not only rolling in the natural grass surface at State Farm Stadium but also the red carpet.
Arizona is a dismal 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in divisional home games since 2019, including a 0-2 SU and ATS mark in 2022 (played the other “home” game vs. the 49ers in Mexico City).
This season, the Cardinals don’t host an NFC West outing until late November but might have a shot at flipping this costly trend. Their shortest spread of the season comes at home to the Rams in Week 12, then Arizona has two weeks to prep for San Francisco in Week 15, and Seattle comes to town in the Week 18 finale with motivation for both sides unknown.
Cardinals NFC West home games
- Week 12 vs. Rams (+1.5)
- Week 15 vs. 49ers (+7)
- Week 18 vs. Seahawks (+4)
