In every NFL offseason, there’s a darling among the sharp betting sects. This team often draws heavy action on their win total and other NFL futures, as well as their early Week 1 odds.
Those markets move with the weight and ferocity of the bulls of Pamplona, as books frantically scramble their offseason offerings to stop the bleeding from those big-time bettors.
Last year it was the Philadelphia Eagles, who drew the attention of wiseguys with their moves on draft day. They made good on an entire offseason of action by rolling Over their win total, winning the division as well as the conference, and near-nipped operators on some sizable Super Bowl odds tickets.
This year, that team is the Atlanta Falcons.
NFL odds have shifted heavily for the Falcons, bumping their win total from 7.5 (Over -110) to 8.5 (Over -140) with books like BetMGM reporting 87% of the handle riding on the Over.
Their NFC South odds moved from +350 to +220 with an overwhelming amount of play on the Falcons to win the division. And even Atlanta’s NFC Championship price has slimmed from +3,500 to +2,800, putting it on par with the likes of the Packers and Giants.
Why so much love? That’s what we’re here to find out. Here’s my 2023 Atlanta Falcons NFL betting preview.
Atlanta Falcons futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +6,000 | +5,500 | +7,000 |
| Win conference | +2,800 | +2,200 | +3,000 |
| Win division | +215 | +210 | +230 |
| Make playoffs | +105 | +104 | +100 |
| O8.5 wins | -120 | -132 | -140 |
| U8.5 wins | +100 | +106 | +120 |
Best futures bet: Over 3.5 division wins (+115)
If you scan the look-ahead lines for the Falcons’ divisional matchups, the math checks out. Atlanta is a favorite in four of those six showdowns, including all three home games and a stop in Tampa Bay. The remaining two games have Atlanta catching less than a field goal on the road.
When it comes to the state of the NFC South, the Falcons have the sturdiest foundation and seem to be the one team on the rise. The offense enters Year 3 under head coach Arthur Smith, has a bevy of promising skill players, and a revamped defense under new coordinator Ryan Nielsen.
As for the other three division members, the Bucs are dead in the water, the Panthers are in rebuild mode, and the Saints’ success hinges heavily on Derek Carr’s reclamation project.
With Atlanta’s futures drained of value by this point in the summer, getting plus money on this divisional win total prop is a good buy if you believe in the ATL.
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Atlanta Falcons betting overview
What will win bets: Rushing attack
Opponents had better have the ice baths ready after running into the Falcons.
Atlanta is building on a 2022 effort in which the team ranked No. 4 in EPA per carry and No. 3 in Run DVOA at Football Outsiders — handing off more than 55% of the time in 2022.
That rushing prowess helped produce the first winning against the spread record (9-8 ATS) for Falcons followers since the infamous 2016 season (33-47-1 ATS from 2017 to 2021).
Atlanta added another dynamic ball carrier in rookie RB Bijan Robinson alongside second-year RB Tyler Allgeier and Swiss Army Knife Cordarrelle Patterson, with that group rolling behind one of the best offensive lines in the business. Atlanta keeps that run block unit intact — after ranking Top 5 in adjusted line yards — and plugged any gaps in the draft. Unsurprisingly, that O-line sits Top 10 in most preseason polls.
Being able to dominate on the ground is a big boost for Falcons bettors. Not only does that help chew up the time of possession and park opposing offenses on the sideline for extended stints, but it also wears on teams as the game goes on.
Atlanta’s run-heavy offense was 10th in DVOA in the second half last season and owned an average margin of +3.2 points in the final 30 minutes. That led to an 11-6 2H ATS mark for fans of the halftime lines.
What will lose bets: Defensive growing pains
Heading into 2023 analysts are split on the Falcons' defense. But they can all agree Atlanta will be better at stopping the football, which isn’t too hard to accomplish considering this unit finished 29th in EPA allowed per play last year.
Last season's pass rush generated pressure on a league-low 14.6% of opponents’ dropbacks and resulted in only 21 sacks — easily the weakest spot in this D. That allowed rival passers to pick apart Atlanta through the air, sinking the Falcons to 29th in Pass Defense DVOA at Football Outsiders and gifting an average passer rating of 95.7 per Sunday.
New coordinator Ryan Nielsen’s main objective was to cook up chaos at the line of scrimmage. He’s hoping some veteran linemen and linebackers can inject this defense with intensity, but should this group underachieve, it has a trickle down to the offense.
Atlanta allowed the second most points in the first half last season (14.8) and if not corrected that means the Falcons will find themselves playing from behind, which tears the run game out of the playbook and puts pressure on young Desmond Ridder to force the ball downfield.
The schedule doesn’t test this new-look defense too much, considering the list of dud QBs along the way, but we’ll find out if those changes are enough against the likes of Detroit and Jacksonville in Week 3 and Week 4.
Atlanta Falcons 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Carolina Panthers |
-3 |
| 2 | vs  Green Bay Packers |
-1.5 |
| 3 | @  Detroit Lions |
+5 |
| 4 | @  Jacksonville Jaguars |
+4 |
| 5 | vs  Houston Texans |
-3 |
| 6 | vs  Washington Commanders |
-2.5 |
| 7 | @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
-1 |
| 8 | @  Tennessee Titans |
+1 |
| 9 | vs  Minnesota Vikings |
+1 |
| 10 | @  Arizona Cardinals |
-2.5 |
| 11 | BYE | |
| 12 | vs  New Orleans Saints |
+1 |
| 13 | @  New York Jets |
+6.5 |
| 14 | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
-3 |
| 15 | @ Carolina Panthers |
+1 |
| 16 | vs  Indianapolis Colts |
-3 |
| 17 | @  Chicago Bears |
+2 |
| 18 | @ New Orleans Saints |
+2.5 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
The key factor fueling all the offseason action on Atlanta is a plush schedule that ranks out 31st, thanks to the unstable foundations of the NFC South as well as non-conference crossovers with the AFC South — perhaps the only other division more mysterious than its NFC counterpart.
The original win total of 7.5 (Over -110) has been revved up to 8.5 with a lean to nine victories, and the look-ahead lines have Atlanta as a point spread favorite in nine games... with one pick’em on the board. As for the seven contests in which the Falcons are catching points: four of them come in under a field goal (+2.5 or less).
My NFL power ratings respect those markets and the soft sked, parking Atlanta 18th overall in the league (51.01/100), behind the Saints (No. 11) but well ahead of rivals Carolina (23rd) and Tampa Bay (31st).
The opening schedule leaves lots of room for growth as well as margins for mistakes against bottom-tier teams. Four of the first six games come at home and the Falcons face only one true road test (Week 3 at Detroit) in that stretch, with the other “away” game a neutral-site meeting with Jacksonville in London in Week 4.
The season opener has Atlanta laying -3 at home to Carolina, which could be starting either Andy Dalton or rookie QB Bryce Young. My ratings produce a spread just short of Falcons -5, but you do need to temper that handicap for divisional rivalries.
The backend of the schedule does serve up more road games, with four of the final six outings away from home, including a three-in-four weeks spot and back-to-back roadies at Chicago and NOLA to close out the calendar.
Atlanta Falcons schedule spot bet
Week 9: VS Vikings
One of the Falcons’ rare challenges in the first half of the schedule comes in Week 9 when Minnesota visits Mercedes-Benz Stadium on November 5.
The Falcons will be back home after two straight road games, while the Vikings will be playing back-to-back road stops following an appearance in Green Bay in Week 8. But there’s more to this spot for Minnesota.
The Vikings play San Francisco at home on Monday Night Football in Week 7, making this trip to the ATL the team’s third game in 13 days. It’s also Minnesota’s third road game in four weeks with a trip to Chicago in Week 6.
Bookies have this one pegged as a pick’em while my ratings produce a line closer to Atlanta -2.5 before making any adjustments to the Vikes’ “yikes” of the schedule spot.
Star power: Kyle Pitts props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | OTB | OTB | +50,000 |
| OPOY | +10,000 | +12,000 | OTB |
| Receiving yards leader | +15,000 | OTB | OTB |
| Receiving TD leader | +10,000 | OTB | OTB |
| O4.5 rec TD | +100 | OTB | +110 |
| U4.5 rec TD | -120 | OTB | -140 |
| Receiving yards total | 700.5 | 675.5 | 730.5 |
Best prop: Over 52.5 receptions
Season-long projections for Kyle Pitts should be taken with a grain of salt considering the talented tight end missed the final six games of 2022 and underwent surgery on his knee. But while his yardage forecasts come in high and low for 2023, his reception totals sit high 50’s and 60s, with a consensus of 58.5 catches.
Pitts had 28 catches in 10 games last season, failing to build on the promise of an outstanding rookie campaign that saw the Florida product bring in 68 balls for 1,026 yards. Ridder will be the third new starting QB for Pitts in three years, but he’ll likely serve as the youngster’s safety blanket in tight spots and third downs.
Many sharp guys are eyeing the Over on Falcons’ passing props, considering the defenses Atlanta plays against as well as the fast track of indoor venues boosting the passing playbook. The Falcons’ play action-heavy schemes open up a ton of space from Pitts underneath and his ceiling is well beyond even the tallest prop totals available.
Atlanta Falcons betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
Desmond Ridder's passing total is set at 2,500.5 yards and the Over is certainly in play.
The biggest worry is that the young QB could lose his job but with one of the easiest schedules in the league through the first 10 games, it's doubtful.
Atlanta plays 10 indoor games this year and seven of its nine road games are either indoors or in hot-weather stadiums. Kyle Pitts is going to make a jump, Drake London is an elite WR, and the RB stable will contribute to the Over.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
Led by an offense that has serious potential to break out, there’s a lot to like about Atlanta coming into the new season, but do odds makers like this team too much? There’s the obvious uncertainty with Desmond Ridder and the majority of its wins coming against very poor opponents last season, but the Falcons also have a schedule full of poor competition in 2023, so I think a two-win improvement from last year and going Over their win total of 8.5 is a solid bet.
One spot to fade, however, is the rushing yard total of Bijan Robinson, which is set at 1100.5 over at DraftKings. While he likely has a very productive career ahead of him and should appear in plenty of highlight reels, this is a crowded backfield with lots of mouths to feed, so why force it this early with the rookie? Plus, it’s not exactly an easy feat as only 10 running back topped this number in 2022.
Atlanta Falcons trend to know
In this section last year, we pointed to Arthur Smith’s ability to come through in close games.
After showing flashes of propensity as the coordinator in Tennessee, Smith went 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in games decided by one score (eight points or less) in his first year in Atlanta. That success carried over in 2022 — at least for bettors — with the Falcons finishing 5-7 SU but 7-5 ATS in those nail-biters.
That makes Smith 13-8 ATS (62%) in one-score games as the head coach of the Falcons.
With the positive projections for Atlanta and many of its scheduled foes facing a downtick in 2023, oddsmakers have the Falcons pegged for plenty of close games — if the point spread is any indication.
Atlanta has eight lines shorter than a field goal (-2.5 to +2.5) on the look-ahead board and is 7-5 SU and ATS vs. the spread range the past two seasons. The Falcons are short dogs in four of those eight outings.
Falcons underdog games of +2.5 or less
- Week 8 @ Titans (+1)
- Week 15 @ Panthers (+2)
- Week 17 @ Bears (+2.5)
- Week 18 @ Saints (+2.5)
