Chicago Bears fans have been waiting their entire lives for this moment: The prodigal QB, face of the future, and savior of the franchise Justin Fields finally makes his first career NFL start!
OK, OK, yes it's only been two weeks and Fields is in because veteran Andy Dalton is out with a knee injury, but that tells you where the Bears are at heading into Week 3 as they visit the Cleveland Browns.
NFL betting odds have Fields and Da Bears as a touchdown underdog, but is there reason to believe that's giving too much respect to the Dawg Pound?
Find out in our Bears vs. Browns picks and predictions for Sunday, September 26, with kickoff scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET.
Bears vs Browns odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This line opened at Cleveland -7.5 but at the time of writing, has ticked down a half-point to an even touchdown, although having extra vig at -115 suggests this could end up at -6.5 before kickoff. The total, which opened at 47, has also taken a downward move, currently sitting at 45.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Bears vs Browns picks
Picks made on 9/23/2021 at 10:27 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bears vs Browns game info
• Location: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH
• Date: Sunday, September 26, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Bears at Browns betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key injuries
Bears: Andy Dalton QB (Out), Eddie Goldman DT (Out), Tashaun Gipson S (Out), Artie Burns CB (Out).
Browns: Jarvis Landry WR (Out), Chris Hubbard T (Out), Sione Takitaki LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Browns.
Bears vs Browns predictions
Bears +7 (-115)
Yes, the Justin Fields era is already here, as the former Ohio State star makes his first NFL start. But is that a good thing for the Bears?
After replacing Andy Dalton late in the second quarter of last week's game, Fields did not exactly inspire confidence, going 6 for 13 for a measly 60 yards with an interception. He made a "bad throw" on almost one-third of his passing attempts and he was blitzed on eight of his 23 dropbacks — resulting in him quickly turning to his legs as he rushed 10 times.
Now, we'll give Fields a pass for getting thrown into the middle of his first game-speed action just two weeks into his career. Having a full week of practice and first-team reps will help — as will getting to face a Browns defense that has been utterly disappointing through two weeks.
After adding a number of new pieces in the offseason, it was expected that Cleveland's new stop unit would need time to mesh. But after getting shredded by the Chiefs in Week 1 (also forgivable), the Browns were also torched by Tyrod Taylor and the Texans in the first half last week — to the tune of 10/11 for 125 yards with a touchdown, plus letting him run a score in as well — as Cleveland was tied 14-14 at halftime in its home opener. The Browns pulled away in the second half, primarily because Taylor got hurt and rookie Davis Mills was, well, bad.
The problem for Cleveland is that it has struggled to generate pressure, with just five QB hurries and three sacks through two games. Fields struggled under Cincy's pressure last week — take that away and he will look much more like the strong pocket passer he's expected to be, while his legs will be more of a complementary threat as opposed to a desperate last resort.
Cleveland's offense has looked good and should be able to put up points, but the Bears defense is competent enough to keep them in the game. After how uninspiring the Browns looked in their home opener against a much more inferior Texans team, we can't justify giving them a touchdown against a tougher Bears squad.
Over 45.5 (-110)
The Browns are one of the rare clubs that love to run the ball, yet still manage to rack up points. The Bears are a tough matchup, giving up the fifth-fewest yards per carry in the league this year, but NT Eddie Goldman was limited in practice Wednesday, while Akiem Hicks did not participate — if one (or both) are unable to play, that is a massive boost to the Cleveland ground game.
Either way, this still projects well for Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland offense. Despite being without Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr., Mayfield was surgical, going 19 of 21 last week. Cleveland's offense was really only stalled by turnovers — one an interception when rookie WR Anthony Schwartz inexplicably just stopped running his route, while the other courtesy of a Donovan Peoples-Jones fumble.
If the Browns are successful running on Sunday, that sets up the play-action, where Mayfield is 12/12 this season with 15.4 yards per attempt. If Cleveland struggles to run, they will just have to pass more — and Chicago has given up 9.4 yards per attempt overall (sixth-worst in NFL).
On the flip side, Cleveland is even tougher to run against, giving up 3.0 yards per carry (third-best in NFL), but is also a bottom-10 pass defense (8.7 YPA) and has already been torched by No. 1 receivers in Tyreek Hill (11/197, TD) and Brandin Cooks (9/78, TD). Chicago's likely inability to run well will mean more passing for Fields, but combine that with a lack of Cleveland pressure — and the presence of star WR Allen Robinson II — and we see lots of chunk plays in the Bears' future as well.
Cleveland has seen 62 and 52 total points in its first two games, while Chicago has seen the total for 4-1 O/U in its last five road games. This number has been trending downward, but we're going against the move and using that to further help cash our Over.
Allen Robinson Over 62.5 receiving yards (-114)
It's been a disappointing start to the season for the aforementioned Allen Robinson. After going off for 102 catches and 1,250 yards in 2020, this year he has just eight catches for 59 yards through two games.
That said, a new QB could actually be a boost for Robinson. While Andy Dalton is a safe, reliable QB, he was 32nd in the NFL with just 5.3 yards per passing attempt — and he is a true pocket passer, as mobility isn't his forte. Fields, on the other hand, has as good (if not better) arm talent as Dalton, while his ability to extend plays with his legs should give Robinson more time to get open — and get downfield.
Young quarterbacks, when the heat is on, also tend to look more towards their best playmakers, and that is Robinson. Against a Browns pas defense that has been shaky (see above re: getting shredded by Hill and Cooks), we're going to bank on ARob getting plenty of targets — and plenty of yards.
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