After last week’s epic NFL betting collapse against the Cowboys, the Atlanta Falcons will look to put their 0-2 start behind them as they host Mitch Trubisky and the 2-0 Chicago Bears.
Even with the early-season struggles and allowing 476 yards per game, Atlanta opened as a three-point favorite, with that line jumping up to 3.5 quickly and now back at three. The Chicago offense sits 25th in the league in points per play after two weeks, but a date with the generous Falcons defense could fix all that as the total opened at 48 and is sitting at 47.5.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Bears vs. Falcons for Sunday, September 27 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons betting preview
Weather
This game will be played indoors at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions of other NFL games with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Bears: None to report.
Falcons: AJ Terrell CB (Out), Julio Jones WR (Out), Foyesade Oloukun LB (Questionable), Takkarist McKinley DE (Out), Ricardo Allen S (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Falcons.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Atlanta’s Week 2 loss to the Cowboys has to be as bad as it gets in the Dan Quinn era of Falcons football. Blowing a 19-point halftime lead after forcing three turnovers in the first 30 minutes is usually a recipe for success. So is having an offense that is averaging 443 yards of offense through two weeks. The truth of the matter is that Atlanta has played two of the supposedly top teams in the league in the Seahawks and Cowboys.
The same cannot be said about the Chicago Bears, who are 2-0 (1-1 ATS) but have picked up two unconvincing wins: needing to score 21-points in the 4th quarter to beat a bad Lions team and failing to cover as they barely hung on against a Giants team that lost Saquon Barkley early.
Even with the easy early schedule, the Chicago defense sits in the middle of the league in yards allowed per play and takeaways per contest. Trubisky fell back to earth in Week 2 as he completed 18-of-28 passes for two TDs and two INTs against a Giants defense that allowed a rusty Ben Roethlisberger to throw three TDs with no picks in Week 1. Don’t expect the Bears’ offense to come roaring back like Dallas did if Atlanta’s No. 2-ranked passing attack gets up early.
PREDICTION: Atlanta -3 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Through two weeks, the Falcons have averaged 71 combined points per game. The offense is in mid-season form with Matt Ryan sitting second in the league in passing yards (723) and WR Calvin Ridley tied for the most receiving yards (239). Their defense is also giving up 6.9 yards per play, which is the second-most in the league.
Things could get worse before they get better for Dan Quinn’s defense, however. Already possessing one of the weakest safety groups in the league, S Ricardo Allen exited Week 2’s game and is questionable against the Bears, as is S Damontae Kazee. Allen played most of his snaps as the slot DB in sub-packages, but losing starters (like Kazee) on an already-bad defense could mean a bigger day for the Chicago offense. The Falcons could also be without their highest-graded defensive player (per PFF) in linebacker Foyesade Oloukun.
If Trubisky, David Montgomery and Allen Robinson can’t put up points versus this defense, then it could be a long season for the Bears after an over-hyped start to an easy schedule.
We may monitor this total to see if the total hits the key number of 47, but we are looking at the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 47.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Todd Gurley saw 46 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 1, but that usage jumped to 64 percent last week versus the Cowboys. Gurley hasn’t produced much in his 35 carries, as he has averaged just 3.34 yards per carry, but the volume is there as his backups saw no more than 20 percent of the snaps last week.
It could be a great spot for a buy-low opportunity for Gurley, who we faded in Week 1 and cashed. Chicago did get edge defender Robert Quinn back in the lineup last week but this is still a defense that didn’t have to worry about the run with Barkley’s exit and still are allowing 4.5 yards per rush — and allowed Adrian Peterson to rumble for 93 yards on 14 carries in Week 1.
PREDICTION: Todd Gurley Over 57.5 rushing yards (-120)
Bears vs Falcons betting card
- Atlanta -3 (-110)
- Over 47.5 (-110)
- Todd Gurley Over 57.5 rushing yards (-120)
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