Don’t look now, but Mitch Trubisky and the Chicago Bears have ripped off two straight wins — and covers — and are sitting with a 33 percent chance to make the playoffs ahead of their Week 16 meeting with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
It couldn’t be any easier for Chicago to pick up their eighth win of the year, as the Jaguars own the league’s worst losing streak which currently sits at 13 games and counting. Jacksonville could also be without starting running back James Robinson, who was injured in last week's 40-14 loss to the Ravens.
NFL odds have the visiting Bears as a 7.5-point favorite which marks their highest spread of the season, and just their third time with the odds edge. Being a TD-or-more underdog is nothing new for the Jaguars, as Week 16 will be their eighth straight game above that margin.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Bears vs Jaguars for Sunday, December 27 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview
Weather
Temperatures will be in the mid-50s at game time, with light 5 mph winds and clear skies. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Bears: Buster Skrine CB (Out), Jaylon Johnson CB (Out).
Jaguars: James Robinson RB (Out), Luq Barcoo CB (Out), Collin Johnson WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Over is 4-0 in the Jaguars’ last four games following an ATS loss. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Jaguars.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Jaguars went with Gardner Minshew last week and ended up with the same results in a 40-14 loss to the Ravens. Minshew has started eight games this year and is 2-6 ATS including a current 0-6 ATS stretch. Possibly without its best offensive player in RB James Robinson, and best CB in Sidney Jones, Jacksonville has to face a hot Chicago team that's been averaging 31 points over its last four.
The Bears are the league’s second-best running team over the last three weeks, as David Montgomery has been resurrected. The Chicago RB has amassed 434 yards on 71 touches with four scores in the four games since Trubisky has retaken the starting gig. Monty and the running game could be in for a huge game, as the Jacksonville rush defense has been hemorrhaging 184.3 yards per game since Week 13. No team is giving up more rushing yards over that stretch.
The losing could continue for the Jags and with Chicago heating up at the right time, we’ve gotten over our disdain for Matt Nagy’s team and are starting to develop a little bit of a crush.
PREDICTION: Chicago -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Since Trubisky took over the offense four games ago, the Bears are 3-1 O/U, with their games averaging a total of 58 points. Three of those four contests have hit at least 60. Chicago is a great mixture of an overrated defense and a hot offense. That defense could also be missing some key pieces Sunday.
Two of the Bears’ top three corners are questionable heading into Sunday. That would give Minshew and the passing game an advantage, especially if Robinson sits and the Jaguars are forced to pass more. This Bears secondary was already giving up 268 passing yards per game since Week 13, and possible injuries could allow Minshew to move the ball in a negative game script.
We love the Over here, especially at the key number of 47. The Jaguars have only seen one total as low as 47 since Week 3, and if the Bears offense can roll for another week, we could see an adjustment on the Bears’ totals going forward.
PREDICTION: Over 47 (-110)
Team Total Prop Pick
The Bears have a near 10-percent ROI on their team total Over this year, and a lot of that return has been of late. Chicago is 4-0 O/U on its team total in its last four games, as it hasn’t scored less than 25 points in any of them.
The run game is a huge advantage for Chicago against Jacksonville’s bottom-10 rush defense. Montgomery ran an incredible 32 times last week and has looked like a different player since Week 12, averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
Receiver Allen Robinson has also benefited from the new offense, as the talented receiver is averaging 88.75 yards per game since Week 12. Chicago has looked like a Top-10 offense, as their TD scoring is up as well, as their red zone TD-scoring percentage.
The Jaguars have held their opponent under 27 points just once since Week 1. Did we mention we are crushing hard on the Bears’ offense?
PREDICTION: Chicago Bears team total Over 27.5 (-115)
Bears vs Jaguars Betting Card
- Chicago -7.5 (-110)
- Over 47 (-110)
- Chicago Bears team total Over 27.5 (-115)
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