Bears vs Jets Week 12 Picks and Predictions: Expect a Messy One at MetLife

The New York Jets are hoping to get a spark from quarterback Mike White as they host the Chicago Bears at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.

Chicago has lost four straight games and may have to play on Sunday without starting quarterback Justin Fields. New York is still in playoff position at 6-4 but needs to find a way to generate more offense to support its elite defensive unit.

Will White turn around the New York offense, or do the Jets’ problems run deeper than Zach Wilson? We’ll take a closer look at what kind of a difference White can make in our NFL picks and predictions for Bears vs. Jets on November 27.

Bears vs Jets best odds

Bears vs Jets picks and predictions

While Zach Wilson’s time with the Jets is far from over, his numbers this season haven’t inspired confidence in his ability to become a successful starting quarterback in the NFL. Wilson has thrown just four touchdowns against five interceptions in seven starts, and while the Jets have gone 5-2 in those games, there have been few moments where the quarterback made much of a difference.

The last straw was a 10-3 loss to the Patriots last week. Wilson went just 9-for-22 and 77 yards passing without throwing a touchdown. As I suggested in my preview last week, the Jets did everything they could to limit Wilson’s involvement in the offense. Still, in the times when he had to make plays, he failed to do so, and his inability to take responsibility for his performance after the game may have doomed his chances of playing this week.

New York could have turned back to veteran Joe Flacco, who threw for five touchdowns and 901 yards in three games while Wilson was injured early in the season. However, with a banged-up offensive line, mobility will be at a premium this week for the Jets quarterback. Flacco, now 37 years old, was never fleet of foot.

So instead, the Jets are going with the relatively untested Mike White. The Western Kentucky product has only made three starts in his career, going 1-2 for the Jets back in 2021. White threw for 953 yards and five touchdowns in those appearances but also tossed eight interceptions.

It’s impossible to know how much White has developed behind the scenes since then. But it’s difficult to imagine that he’s going to suddenly turn the Jets' offense into a dynamic unit that can put up points, even against a weak Bears defense.

The Jets are without leading rusher Breece Hall for the rest of the year, and their running attack hasn’t been nearly as potent since the rookie tore his ACL. The Jets are averaging 19.9 points per game and haven’t put up 21+ points in any of their past four contests.

Yet, sportsbooks are giving this Jets offense far too much credit, mostly due to the struggles of the Chicago defense. The problem for New York is that it hasn't proven it can score many points against anyone, regardless of its pedigree. I have no reason to think that White will put up a lot of points, even if he provides stability to the Jets' offense.

The Jets may very well win a low-scoring affair, but this isn’t going to turn into anything that resembles a shootout. With that in mind, I’m taking the Under on the Jets team total, as books are putting this number way too high for an anemic offense that doesn’t deserve any respect at all.

My best bet: Jets team total Under 22.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Bears vs Jets spread analysis

The Jets opened as a 4.5-point favorite, and most books are now offering New York -6 as the main line. The Jets are 6-4 against the spread this year, while the Bears are 4-6-1 ATS.

This game looks like one that the Jets should win, regardless of who they start at quarterback. The Bears have lost four straight, and the Jets are hardly in the middle of a meltdown, having sandwiched a win over the Bills in between two losses to the Patriots. 

There’s also a major concern over whether Bears QB Justin Fields will be able to play on Sunday. Fields is dealing with a separated left shoulder, has been limited in practice, and remains doubtful for the game as of Thursday.

I like the Jets to win this game outright, but given that this should be a low-scoring game — particularly if Fields doesn’t play — I can’t justify New York giving nearly a touchdown to Chicago. The Jets didn’t even score six points last week, so backing them to win by that margin seems irresponsible when there’s no clear answer as to how exactly they’ll consistently move the ball on Sunday. 

If Fields doesn’t play, neither team will score much. If Fields is in the lineup, there’s a chance Chicago could simply outgun the anemic Jets offense. Either way, I’m happy to take the Bears at +6. 

Bears vs Jets Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under on this game has plummeted to 38.5 since opening at 45. This is the lowest number of the Week 12 slate, likely because of the quarterback uncertainty on both teams.

The Jets haven’t scored points all year but have also shut down most of the teams they’ve played against. New York is allowing just 18.6 points per game and ranks in the Top 10 against both the run and the pass. 

Chicago has a very one-dimensional offense. The Bears average 197.9 yards per game on the ground, the best in the NFL while ranking last in passing at just 128.1 yards per game.

Fields is the leading rusher for the Bears, and it’s unclear what Chicago’s offense will look like if Trevor Siemian has to get the start on Sunday. It may well be the case that the Bears continue to struggle to throw the ball but no longer have their dynamic running attack to lean on.

The Jets are also in disarray on offense, with White providing nothing more than a question mark for New York. As I discussed earlier, he hasn’t shown anything in the past to suggest he’ll make a significant difference for the Jets on Sunday.

The problem here is just how low the total is. We can’t be sure that Fields won’t play, and defensive touchdowns are possible on both sides. With so much uncertainty, I’m staying away from the total on this game.

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