The Detroit Lions host the Chicago Bears at Ford Field for the Thanksgiving opener on Thursday, November 28.
My top NFL predictions and Bears vs. Lions anytime touchdown prop picks for the NFC North showdown are headlined by Chicago wide receiver Keenan Allen and Detroit tight end Sam LaPorta.
Bears anytime touchdown pick
Keenan Allen anytime touchdown
+270 at FanDuel
Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen caught one of his two red-zone targets for a touchdown last week against the Minnesota Vikings, and he received another 13 looks in the passing attack to finish with his best game of the year.
Allen scored six or more touchdowns in six of his final seven seasons with the Los Angeles Chargers, and this year he only has three scores through nine games.
With the Bears being a sizable underdog to the Detroit Lions, Chicago will likely need to air it out to keep pace this Thursday, and Allen is also off the injury report after being dubbed questionable with an ankle injury for Week 12. He also missed a pair of games earlier this year with a heel injury, so the clean bill of health is also encouraging for the veteran.
My NFL picks are looking Allen’s way in this tough matchup because of his crisp route running and recent connection with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. Additionally, I’m expecting Allen to have easier one-on-one matchups against Detroit cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Amik Robertson, while Carlton Davis primarily lines up opposite Bears wide-out DJ Moore.
Lions anytime touchdown pick
Sam LaPorta anytime touchdown
+240 at FanDuel
Lions tight end Sam LaPorta has only found the end zone three times this season after racking up 10 scores as a rookie. He’s remained a consistent red-zone target and has garnered two looks inside the 20 in each of his past two games. LaPorta hauled in a 20-yard touchdown pass in Week 10, too.
The big difference is LaPorta has only turned 20% of his red-zone targets into scores this year compared to 50% during his rookie campaign. Chicago might just be the perfect opponent for improved efficiency inside the 20, though.
Despite allowing a healthy 8.53 yards per target to opposing tight ends, the Bears have only allowed a single passing touchdown to the position all season. Additionally, the Bears have been worse against the position as the season has progressed with the third-most receiving yards allowed (79.7 per game) and 9.56 yards per target dating back to Week 6.
Finally, Detroit wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown (knee) and Kalif Raymond (foot) being banged up could also open up more looks in the passing game for LaPorta.
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