The Green Bay Packers took Week 1 on the chin but get a chance to dismantle a divisional rival in the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field Sunday night.
The Bears’ Week 1 victory over the 49ers isn’t moving the needle for me, and this Green Bay team under new offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich is going to lean on the run. It’s going to be A.J. Dillon who finishes with more touches in the Green Bay backfield.
Here are my free NFL player prop picks for Sunday Night Football between the Bears and Packers.
Bears vs Packers prop picks
- AJ Dillon Over 50.5 rushing yards (-110)
- AJ Dillon anytime TD (+130)
- Aaron Jones Under 32.5 receiving yards (-114)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bears vs Packers SNF props
More A than B
In their Week 1 loss to the Vikings, the Packers had AJ Dillon lead the team in receptions, receiving yards, and carries. The game script had something to do with it but it's clear new offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich favors the bigger back.
Stenavich knows what he has in his running backs more than any other coach on this team. His favoritism to Dillon in Week 1 is something that is going to carry over into Sunday in a great matchup against the Bears. Aaron Jones played on just eight rushing snaps last week vs. Minnesota.
Packers offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich promises more touches for running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon: “We’ll do a great job getting those guys the rock.” pic.twitter.com/766Nku6ca1
— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) September 15, 2022
Dillon’s rushing yard total is two yards shorter than Jones’, and with Green Bay struggling to find a passing game and likely playing with a big lead, Dillon’s Over 50.5 rushing yards is the play here.
Dillon started two of the Packers’ first three drives last week and had four rushes to Jones’ three before the Vikings took a 17-0. Dillon finished the game with 10 rushes to Jones’ five. He also totaled 16 rushes for 130 yards in the two meetings against the Bears last season.
The Packers are going to run the ball heavily on Sunday night and it's going to be Dillon leading the way.
A.J. Dillon Prop: Over 50.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Red zone opportunities
Dating back to Week 10 of last season, AJ Dillon has received the bulk work in the red zone, out-carrying Aaron Jones 39 to 16 and totaling nine touchdowns to Jones’ one. Jones did miss two games over that stretch but Dillon had just two red zone carries. He took three of the five redzone carries in Week 1 and cashed on a short yardage score.
This is looking for work.
— Jason B. Hirschhorn (@by_JBH) September 11, 2022
Zach Tom had already taken his man out of the play and then goes back and pushes AJ Dillon into the end zone.pic.twitter.com/RDIyZupJ4y
Books are still pricing Jones as the higher-probable back to score a TD, with Dillon paying a decent +130 at bet365, while Jones is less than even money.
Betting on short TD plays is not a great long-term approach but it should be Dillon at -110, and these 40 points are a pretty substantial 9% difference in implied probability.
It’s tough to judge the Bears’ rush defense with last week’s conditions, but the 49ers did manage 176 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per carry with terrible rushing conditions. The Packers scored 45 points in the most recent meeting, with four TDs coming through the air.
With a passing game that is lacking receiving talent, those points could easily get sent to running backs. Dillon is the man inside the red zone but is not being priced as the better opportunity back. I’m hitting his +135 anytime TD.
A.J. Dillon Prop: Anytime touchdown (+130 at bet365)
Playing with the lead
Former Green Bay OC Nathanial Hackett came out this week and stated how important it is to involve his RBs in the passing game, and that same mentality was evident when he was with the Packers. Last season, Jones and Dillon averaged over 42 receiving yards game per game combined. Now with Hackett in Denver, there is the possibility that Green Bay slows down on getting its backs involved.
Aaron Jones has a receiving total of 32.5 yards for Week 2's primetime tilt. This is a big correction from his 40.5-yard total last week, but this number is still too high.
First off, the Packers should be playing with the lead as a 10-point favorite, meaning the offensive emphasis will be on the run.
Secondly, Jones averaged just 26.1 receiving yards per game a season ago and that was with Hackett. That means there could be a hit to the running back’s receiving production under new OC Adam Stenavich, whose coaching background is more offensive line focused.
Finally, AJ Dillon will also eat up some receiving snaps. He caught 34 of his 37 balls last year and led his team in targets (6), catches (5), and receiving yards (46) last week in a game that likely had the biggest opportunity for running back receptions, thanks to Green Bay trailing right from the jump. Jones had just three grabs for 27 yards, with one of those going for 22 yards against a soft defense.
This total could continue to fall in Week 3.
Aaron Jones Prop: Under 32.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
