Both the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears will be on short weeks when the 4-10 Bears, fresh off a Monday night loss to the Vikings, make the trip to face the 5-9 Seahawks, who head home after dropping a crucial game in L.A. on Tuesday.
Chicago is eliminated from playoff contention and headed toward another offseason of change, while a similar situation appears to be on the horizon for Sunday's hosts.
Here are our free NFL picks and predictions for Bears vs. Seahawks, with kickoff on December 26.
Bears vs Seahawks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Seahawks opened between 7.5- and 7-point favorites, depending on the book, but have been bet down to -6.5 almost across the board. The total hit the board this week at 44 and has since dropped down to 42.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Bears vs Seahawks predictions
Predictions made on 12/22/2021 at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Bears vs Seahawks game info
• Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
• Date: Sunday, December 26, 2021
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Bears at Seahawks betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Bears: Justin Fields QB (Out), Andy Dalton QB (Out), Jason Peters T (Out), Xavier Crawford CB (Out), Khalil Mack LB (Out).
Seahawks: Alex Collins RB (Out), Brandon Shell T (Out), Jamal Adams S (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Seahawks.
Bears vs Seahawks picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Seahawks' playoff hopes are alive technically but the team's season is all but dead, meaning for the first time in his career, Russell Wilson will be playing meaningless games. Seattle's been trending toward that reality for most of the season, as key injuries on defense, an underperforming offense, and the first missed games of Wilson's career have the team sitting at 5-9.
There was brief hope of a late-season surge after a vintage Wilson performance against the 49ers in Week 13 but that's now clearly an anomaly, as Wilson and Seattle's offense remains stuck in the mud. The Seahawks are down to 15th in weighted DVOA on offense, despite that win over San Francisco and a meeting with the Texans within the sample size, which is telling in itself. The defense, battered by injuries, is even worse at 25th in both season-long and weighted DVOA, and 28th against the pass.
However, it isn't all bad for the Seahawks. They may be a terribly mediocre and occasionally bad team but they'll return home in Week 16 to host a Bears team that is downright awful. Chicago is 24th in DVOA (23rd in weighted), a terrible 26th on offense and even a slightly-less-bad 18th on defense isn't cause for celebration, as its entire secondary is either on the COVID list or just coming off it.
The Bears announced Friday they will be starting Nick Foles at quarterback. Who knows what to expect there, but we can be pretty sure that the outlook is not great.
Neither of these teams are very good but the Seahawks have the edge where it matters to cover against bad teams, and the Bears are a bad team.
Prediction: Seahawks -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
It's impossible to trust the Seahawks' offense at the moment. Wilson's performances have been scattershot since returning from injury (and really, for the better part of a calendar year), their backfield is a wasteland but entirely relevant as long as Pete Carroll's in charge, and their Jenga piece in Tyler Lockett is on the COVID list — with his absence making life harder on both Wilson and DK Metcalf.
Seattle's recent success, or lack thereof, has already been noted in terms of DVOA, while their per-drive metrics are just as discouraging. The Seahawks are 23rd in points and 26th in yards per drive, with their drive success rate coming in ahead of just the Texans and Jaguars.
That hideous offense will have company in Seattle on Sunday, however, as the Bears' offense is equally brutal. Chicago's offense checks in at 25th in weighted DVOA, while it produces the fourth-fewest points per drive in the NFL. Even the Bears' best per-drive mark, 24th in yards, is sullied by an inability to finish drives as only the Lions, Texans, and Giants have a worse red zone scoring rate.
With two untrustworthy and underwhelming offenses taking part in Seattle, we're going Under on the total.
Prediction: Under 43 (-110)
Best bet
At the time of writing, there are five games on the Week 16 slate with totals lower than the one in Seattle for Bears vs. Seahawks. While that may be justified, so too is the movement that has seen the total bet down already from 44 after Chicago's loss on Monday night.
There's no objective reason to take the Over in this spot. Both offenses are, at best, mediocre and at worst, broken. Add in both teams just playing out the season in meaningless games, and taking the Under is your best bet.
Pick: Under 43 (-110)
