Bears vs Vikings Week 5 Picks and Predictions: Chicago Gives Road-Weary Minnesota a Scare

This NFC North rivalry will feature a scenario, for only the sixth time in NFL history, where a team goes from the London game to playing the next weekend. The Chicago Bears will travel to face the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon.

Both teams have had their fair share of ups and downs to start the 2022 season, but I don’t think either team is upset with their current record. Will the Vikings be able to stay on top of the NFC North?

Find out in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for the Bears vs. Vikings on Sunday, October 9.

Bears vs Vikings best odds

Bears vs Vikings picks and predictions

The Vikings were fortunate to escape London with a late win over the depleted New Orleans Saints. Despite the Saints missing their starting quarterback, running back, and wide receiver, they still managed to give the Vikings all they wanted.

Kirk Cousins struggled to finish off drives for touchdowns, as they were forced to kick five field goals against the Saints. Now they will be facing a defense that is tied for 10th in the league in red-zone touchdown percentage. If Cousins and the Vikings do not shore up their playbook and efficiency once they get in scoring range, they will once again need to rely on their kicking game to keep them alive.

The fortunate side for the Vikings is that the Bears have struggled mightily on offense at the beginning of this season. They rank 30th in points per game, 31st in total yards per game, and dead last in passing yards per game. They have yet to have a game this year with more than 155 passing yards.

The Bears will also likely be without lead running back David Montgomery for a second consecutive week. If this is the case, Khalil Herbert will need to continue his strong running. Herbert is averaging 6.1 yards per attempt thus far this season and the Vikings rank 17th in the NFL allowing 4.6 yards per attempt. 

Another key piece of information to consider with this game is that the Vikings just played in London last Sunday and do not get the benefit of having a bye week following their trip. This is only the sixth instance in the history of the NFL International Series that a team has had to do so. In the previous five instances, the team coming off the London game is 2-3 against the spread. This may be another case of jet lag here for the Vikings.

Cousins and Minnesota continue to struggle when they get in scoring range and this Bears defense will continue to give them more fits. This spread is too large for a team that struggles to find the end zone and is coming directly from an overseas trip. Give me the Bears.

My best bet: Bears +7.5 (+100 at Caesars)

Bears vs Vikings spread analysis

It has been a strange year for Bears fans, given their record and the type of wins they have. In Week 1, it made some sense in the way they defeated the San Francisco 49ers because the weather was awful. So, winning with only 204 total yards was not too crazy.

However, they followed this up with only 48 passing yards and 228 total yards against the Green Bay Packers in a 27-10 loss. Then, they defeated the Houston Texans 23-20 despite only recording 82 passing yards. 

The good news is they will now get a Minnesota defense that ranks 26th in the league against the pass and allows 263.5 passing yards per game. Even the fill-in Andy Dalton, without two of his best weapons, was able to put up 236 passing yards last week against this defense. It feels like this is the perfect opportunity for Fields and the Bears to get their passing game going.

If the Bears do indeed get the passing game in gear, they have a chance to win this game straight up. Regardless, I like the combination of the defense and running game to keep this game close enough to cover the spread. Anything over a full touchdown is just too many points.

Bears vs Vikings Over/Under analysis

The historical trends in this matchup are certainly leaning towards this game going Over that total. The Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. Also, the Over is 6-1 in the last seven Vikings games played on FieldTurf.

However, the numbers this year combined with the likely game script are leaning toward the Under. The Under is 3-1 in the four games for the Bears this season and 2-2 in the four Vikings game this year. The Vikings’ games average 41.5 total points per game and the Bears’ games average 35.3 points per game this year.

With both teams failing to put the ball into the end zone, even a high-yardage game can go Under. I love the Bears to keep Minnesota from scoring touchdowns and settling for field goals. I do not see the Bears' offense lighting up the scoreboard, so the Under seems like a safe bet here.

Bears vs Vikings betting trend to know

The Vikings are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games in October. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Vikings.

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