Bengals vs 49ers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 8: All Eyes on Me

With Brock Purdy possibly out and Sam Darnold waiting in the wings, the San Francisco 49ers NFL Week 8 odds have moved from -6 to as low as -3 ahead of their matchup with the rested Cincinnati Bengals who are coming off the bye.

Bettors might not get a clear understanding of the quarterback situation in San Francisco until Sunday as Purdy has been limited at practice this week leading some to believe he might clear the concussion protocol in time. 

Despite the QB issues, Christian McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in 16 straight games but with NFL odds giving us heavy juice on his markets, is there value bettors can find in some of his half-specific touchdown markets?

Here are my Week 8 free NFL picks for Bengals vs. 49ers on October 29.

Bengals vs 49ers odds

Bengals vs 49ers predictions

Christian McCaffrey has amazingly scored in 16 straight games including the postseason. It’s the longest active streak and the longest in franchise history. He is one TD shy of tying the NFL record held by running back Lenny Moore who played for the Baltimore Colts from 1956 to 1967.

Even if Sam Darnold is under center on Sunday, CMC is still the most probable player to score a touchdown in Week 8, per THE BLITZ who projects him for 0.86 TDs vs. the Cincinnati Bengals. 

The best McCaffrey TD price as of Friday afternoon is at Pinnacle at -156. I’m not about to hit a juiced TD prop but with some books as short as -225, there are other markets to target for better odds.

bet365 has the next best price at -163 which is leading to some value on half-specific TD markets. The San Francisco running back is +150 to score a TD in the first half and +165 to do the same in the second half. 

The 49ers are a better first-half scoring team at 16.1 points compared to 12.6 in the second half. Kyle Shanahan is renowned for being one of the best-scripted play-callers in football which could be leading to the first-half results. This has me looking at CMC to score in the first 30 minutes at +150.

The Bengals are also a tough team to score on in the second half. On the season, Lou Anarumo’s defense is giving up 12.8 first-half points per game compared to just 8.3 in the second half. That second-half number falls to just 4.0 points per second-half over the team’s last three games. Much like Shanahan is a master in the early goings, Anarumo is a doctor at making second-half adjustments, giving even more value to this first-half score.

With the uncertainty of the San Francisco quarterback situation, McCaffrey will be the focal point of the offense yet again, and at +150 to score in the first half, I’m calling that my best bet.

My best bet: Christian McCaffrey first half anytime touchdown (+150 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Bengals vs 49ers same-game parlay

McCaffrey first-half TD

Bengals +7.5

Burrow Over 24.5 completions

50% boost available

+750 +1,125 at bet365

I'm getting a decent multiplier with the CMC first-half TD coupled with the Bengals +7.5 alternative spread. McCaffrey will be the focal point of this offense regardless of who is under center and the Bengals have been a better second-half team. Coming off the bye and possibly facing Sam Darnold, I sure hope they can cover the +7.5

Kirk Cousins completed 35 passes vs. this defense last week and this is a much easier defense to beat in the air than on the ground, especially with Joe Mixon. On the season, this 49ers' defense averages 26.4 completions allowed per game which is the second-highest amount in the league.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bengals vs 49ers spread and Over/Under analysis

With Brock Purdy hitting concussion protocol earlier in the week, there has been some volatility in this spread, but nothing through any key numbers. 

San Fransisco was a 6-point favorite on the look-ahead, reopened at -5.5/-6, and then shortened up to as low as -3 in some places. It should be noted that Pinnacle never hit -3 but was certainly leaning that way as of Friday afternoon with a -117 price on the 49ers at -3 and +104 the other way. 

Purdy was limited at practice on Thursday but very few players make it through protocol on the short week. If Sam Darnold does get the start, I think we see 3s as the move from Purdy to Darnold is worth just under a field goal, but maybe less in a Shanahan offense. I think bettors will see some resistance at the -3 because of this. 

Lost in all of this are the other injuries. Deebo Samuel has been ruled out and tackle Trent Williams’ likely absence hurts as well as he was a DNP Thursday and missed Week 7’s loss. 

The Bengals are coming off the bye and have just one noticeable mark on the injury report and that’s tackle Orlando Brown who was limited on Thursday. 

The 49ers’ defense looked anything but stout in prime time vs. the Vikings and Kirk Cousins who completed a season-high 35 passes for 387 yards in the 22-17 Minnesota win as a TD underdog. The San Francisco linebackers also took a beating in that game but the injury report is saying Dre Greenlaw is good to go as well as Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles. Fred Warner was also down after taking a knee to the leg but did return. 

I’m leaning on the Bengals here at +4 or better. It’s an offense that ranks 32nd in yards per game but that is a tough number to maintain — especially with the extra prep facing a team on short rest. The second-half defense has also been lights out. Lou Anarumo is one of the best DCs at adjusting in the second half and on the season, opponents have scored just 50 2H points through six games. Over the last three games, that number falls to 13 points with just one TD allowed.

The total has also moved significantly. It was 46 on the look-ahead, reopened at 45.5, and has now dropped to 43.5. Neither team has been profitable to the Over this season, and I can’t get too excited about a Sam Darnold Over — especially vs. this 2H Cincinnati defense. 

The weather looks great on the West Coast Sunday afternoon but with the 49ers already playing at the slowest pace offensively and the Bengals not that far behind, I’m not expecting a shootout. This Cincinnati offense has scored more than 20 points just twice over six games and has failed to hit the 20-point mark in two of its three wins. 

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