It's the scenario everyone dreamed of when the regular season was expanded to 18 weeks — a divisional matchup between Brandon Allen and Case Keenum... with absolutely nothing on the line!
Thankfully, NFL betting fans can still find some way to mine value from this throwaway game, as the Cleveland Browns are already eliminated and the Cincinnati Bengals are happy with their AFC North title and will opt to rest many key starters in preparation for the playoffs.
Here are our best free NFL picks and predictions for Bengals vs. Browns on Sunday, January 9.
Bengals vs Browns odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This line opened at Cleveland -3, then news came out that Browns QB Baker Mayfield would not play, jumping the spread to Cincinnati -3 — only for Bengals QB Joe Burrow and RB Joe Mixon to be ruled out, swinging this all the way back to Cleveland -6, as of Thursday morning. The total opened at 44, and as key players continued to be removed from this game has dropped to the current number of 38.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Bengals vs Browns predictions
Predictions made on 1/6/2022 at 10:26 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Bengals vs Browns game info
• Location: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH
• Date: Sunday, January 9, 2022
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Bengals at Browns betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Bengals: Joe Burrow QB (Out), Evan McPherson K (Out), D.J. Reader DT (Out), Cameron Sample DE (Out), Larry Ogunjobi DT (Out), BJ Hill DT (Out), Joe Mixon RB (Out), Vonn Bell S (Out), Trey Hendrickson DE (Out), Trey Hopkins C (Out).
Browns: Ronnie Harrison S (Out), Troy Hill CB (Out), Kareem Hunt RB (Out), Baker Mayfield QB (Out), Malik Jackson DT (Out), D'Ernest Johnson RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in Cleveland. Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Browns.
Bengals vs Browns picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
OK, so this game isn't totally meaningless. There is still a scenario for the Bengals to clinch a first-round bye, but considering they need three massive favorites to lose... it's highly unlikely. So much so that Cincinnati has accepted its spot as a division champion and nothing more, with star quarterback Joe Burrow announcing that he will not play in this game (rest). Pro Bowl running back Joe Mixon will also be out after testing positive for COVID-19.
That leaves journeyman Brandon Allen under center for the Bengals to play out the string against a Cleveland team that will be all-too-happy to just close the book on its 2021 season.
The Browns entered the season with lofty expectations but this was yet another lost (and losing) season in the Dawg Pound, with the spotlight squarely on QB Baker Mayfield and Head Coach Kevin Stefanski. With arguably the NFL's most dominant running game at his disposal, Stefanski often deployed offensive gameplans that were pass-heavy — despite the fact that Mayfield was one of the worst statistical QBs in the NFL this season (26th in pass ypg, 28th in completion percentage, 28th in interception percentage, 27th in QBR) and battled a myriad of injuries.
It's also worth questioning why Stefanski continued to play Mayfield, where some games it was called a "small miracle" that he suited up (to ineffective results) at all. That won't be an issue for Week 18, however, as Mayfield has already ruled himself out of a meaningless game, leaving Case Keenum to finish up the season.
With a number of backups going to play the lion's share of this game, it's hard to look at past performance as an indicator for this Sunday, but the Browns went into MNF last week — already eliminated — and looked absolutely pathetic on offense against a Steelers team clinging to a faint hope of playoff life.
This week's version of the Bengals has less tangible motivation than Pittsburgh, but considering they are going to be in the playoffs for the first time in six years — and it's coach Zac Taylor's first playoff appearance — it's a safe bet that Cincy, winners of three straight, will want to keep the momentum of playing hard (and playing well) and still give an inspired effort. Keenum might somehow be an upgrade on Mayfield, but the Browns are just looking forward to 4 p.m. ET and focusing on 2022.
We can't, in good conscience, back Cleveland laying 6 points this Sunday.
Prediction: Bengals +6 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Despite the offense being near-lifeless last week, Cleveland's defense still gave a strong effort, holding Pittsburgh to 109 passing yards, although the Steelers did rumble for 190 yards on 31 carries.
This week, the Cincy passing game projects to not be much better than the Steelers with Allen making his first start of the year, while the running game still features a capable back in Samaje Perine, although he is a couple of notches below Mixon or Pittsburgh's Najee Harris.
Cleveland is averaging 16.9 points per game over its last 11 games, with that number buoyed by a 41-point outburst against this same Cincy team in Week 9. The Browns have scored 14 points or fewer in seven of those games, plus have not had consecutive games with 100 yards rushing since Weeks 4 and 5.
Both teams are essentially playing for pride on Sunday, and nowhere does that shine more on the defensive end. Look for both teams' stop units to bring the intensity, and with backup QBs running shorthanded offenses — and it's expected to be raining in Cleveland — that has us leaning towards the Under.
Prediction: Under 38 (-110)
Best bet
Check back later for a prop pick when full markets are live!
